2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2580725 7-Oct-2020 15:35

wellygary:

But on the other hand, Queensland is about to hit 27 days with no community transmission.... so it might be a full gold coast bubble for Christmas rather than a one way bubble to Sydney....

Yeah, it's odd that NSW and NT were on the cards for Aus/NZ bubble, but not Queensland, Western Australia, or Tasmania, all of which seem to have had managed covid well.

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#2580734 7-Oct-2020 15:56

frankv:

wellygary:

But on the other hand, Queensland is about to hit 27 days with no community transmission.... so it might be a full gold coast bubble for Christmas rather than a one way bubble to Sydney....

Yeah, it's odd that NSW and NT were on the cards for Aus/NZ bubble, but not Queensland, Western Australia, or Tasmania, all of which seem to have had managed covid well.

Its all Aussie federal/state politics,

QLD and WA have Labour governments and have implemented hard borders with the rest of the country,

The Federal government (Liberal) wants to reopen domestic borders so are using NSW (with a liberal government) to try and embarrass the other states by saying Kiwis can come to Sydney, while those from WA and Queensland cannot.. WA has not even agreed with the Hotspot plan....

The Federal government controls to foreign borders, so it will be interesting to see if they would allow QLD to form a bubble with NZ, whilst keeping their border to NSW shut.... I doubt it....

NZ needs to be careful not to seen as a pawn of Sco Mo's govt...

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#2580735 7-Oct-2020 15:56

wellygary:
tdgeek:

Nice, job done again

Interesting that they finally decided to declare these cases "recovered" just before going down to level 1, but hey ho..

I'm now more interested in the Sydney outbreak, after 12 days with no community cases, they have had 3 pop up, all appear unconnected....

It will be interesting to see if they can keep it under the "hotspot" limits of 10 cases a day for 3 days...

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/nsw-records-3-new-cases-of-community-transmission/news-story/1a69a28951db39bd98f14b04bff0390b

But on the other hand, Queensland is about to hit 27 days with no community transmission.... so it might be a full gold coast bubble for Christmas rather than a one way bubble to Sydney....

I think they knew when these cases would "recover" hence the level 1 date, not the other way round. Just an educated guess.

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#2580736 7-Oct-2020 16:01

frankv:

Yeah, it's odd that NSW and NT were on the cards for Aus/NZ bubble, but not Queensland, Western Australia, or Tasmania, all of which seem to have had managed covid well.

Not really odd. Those states that are are not agreeing to the Australia Federal Government plans are the ones that that have aimed for elimination not suppression.
They closed boarders internally to keep there covid free status as best they could.
They not wont to open to unknown community cases either.

In the case of WA they fought the Federal government in court to keep the state boarders closed (Fed Govt had second thoughts and dropped out of case late in the process)
NT is a special case in that it is not a state and more Federally beholden.

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#2580737 7-Oct-2020 16:03

Batman:

I think they knew when these cases would "recover" hence the level 1 date, not the other way round. Just an educated guess.

Impossible....

The Level one tentative date of 7th October was set on 21 September just before AK went to level 2 and the rest of the country went to level 1...

The most recent cluster case was on the 25th September.. so that after the date was set...

I think its more a case of they batch process the declarations of recovered....

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#2580796 7-Oct-2020 18:19

tdgeek:

...

Australia wise. Some are manic that we are allowing Kiwis to return home, as they are the source of cases here. How will that go when if there was a two way bubble, where some states are good some are not, and you can walk, drive, rollerblade across borders? If the two way then is paid MIQ I guess it doesnt matter

"... walk, drive, rollerblade across borders?". Good luck trying that into WA from Sydney. I guess it is also possible to paddle across the Tasman.

You seem concerned about opening to anywhere in AU but the reality is that most AU states/territories have a better record than NZ.

WA are playing particularly hardball. Several months since any CT. Refuse to open their border to any state in AU until every state has 28 consecutive days of zero CT. Not even NT who have had zero CT and only 2 local cases from known sources through the entire duration of the pandemic (https://covidlive.com.au/nt). Until then it's 14 days in quarantine no matter where from (and they made it clear that this applies to Scott M as well. And SM has replied that he considers that appropriate, though adding that he "has no plans to visit there anytime soon" anyway). Don't have to worry about WA though as we have no more chance of getting in without quarantine than SM. They have more reason to be concerned about us than vice versa.

QLD have stated that they require NSW to have 28 consecutive days of zero CT before they will open their border to NSW (other than the small border zone). As of today the NSW-QLD border clock will potentially be reset to 0 as QLD treat any case where the source is not identified within 48 hours as CT.

What makes you think the state borders are a breeze? Over the last ~3 months our border has leaked more covid cases than most interstate borders.

And despite what some here think, at least QLD and WA are just as determined to achieve/maintain elimination as NZ.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/nsw-breaks-streak-of-no-community-transmission-covid-cases-c-1369385

...

The new cases are likely to reset the border clock with Queensland.

“I always said at the outset the Queensland government’s definition of what would make it safe for them to open their border was always very high and something unrealistic, and I think the cases overnight have proven that,” Berejiklian [NSW Premier] said on Wednesday.

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#2580801 7-Oct-2020 18:32

freitasm:

wellygary:

But on the other hand, Queensland is about to hit 27 days with no community transmission.... so it might be a full gold coast bubble for Christmas rather than a one way bubble to Sydney....

Yes, as if it was hard to someone to fly from New Zealand to Queensland and then find their way to Sydney...

Yes but they could just as easily fly directly into Sydney (open to NZ from the 16th, assuming we do not have more local cases in the meantime).

Either way it would not get them back into NZ without quarantine either here or in QLD. That is, sure they can get into Sydney but on current regulations, until NSW is 28 days CT free they will not be able to get into either NZ or QLD without quarantine.

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#2580802 7-Oct-2020 18:34

NZ is letting a lot more overseas people in per capita than Australia is. Plus we don't have the same flight restrictions they have. So the odds of us importing cases seems a lot higher, this is probably why we have had more leaks as well.

Also read a news article in the last few days saying that China had blocked some beef imports from Brazil after the frozen beef was shown to have covid. https://www.thecattlesite.com/news/55941/china-temporarily-suspends-beef-imports-from-minerva-plant-in-brazil/ So looks like frozen food again could be a source.

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#2580808 7-Oct-2020 18:42

Batman:

I think they knew when these cases would "recover" hence the level 1 date, not the other way round. Just an educated guess.

Rubbish. These recovered cases are not "in" the population they are quarantined. They posed no threat. The threat was CT in the community that are not known to exist. As time has gone by, it "appears" that there is no CT, hence the Level change.

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#2580809 7-Oct-2020 18:44

mattwnz:

NZ is letting a lot more overseas people in per capita than Australia is. Plus we don't have the same flight restrictions they have. So the odds of us importing cases seems a lot higher, this is probably why we have had more leaks as well.

...

True in the last few months but most states have had to contend with far more interstate border crossings than our incoming traffic.

eg. take NT (pop. ~250k). Since 17 July, 47,426 arrived by air, 49,776 by road, and 1,587 by rail or sea. Per capita or otherwise that is lot more than NZ has had to deal with.

https://coronavirus.nt.gov.au/current-status

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#2580811 7-Oct-2020 18:46

Only slightly off-topic ...

Reuters - Billionaires reach record wealth during Covid-19 pandemic

today

Billionaire wealth reached record high levels amid the Covid-19 pandemic, a report by UBS and PwC found, as a rally in stock prices and gains in technology and healthcare helped the wealth of the world's richest break the $US10 trillion mark ($NZ15 trillion).

The report, covering over 2,000 billionaires representing some 98 percent of the cohort's total wealth, found billionaire wealth grew by more than a quarter during the early months of the pandemic to reach $US10.2 trillion in July, breaking the previous record of $US8.9 trillion ($NZ13.5 trillion) at the end of 2019.

The figure represents a five- to ten-fold rise over the past 25 years, the span covered by the UBS and PwC database, when billionaire wealth stood at just over $US1 trillion ($NZ1.5 trillion). ...

"How the other half (0.1%) lives"

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tdgeek

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#2580857 7-Oct-2020 18:58

DS248:

tdgeek:

...

Australia wise. Some are manic that we are allowing Kiwis to return home, as they are the source of cases here. How will that go when if there was a two way bubble, where some states are good some are not, and you can walk, drive, rollerblade across borders? If the two way then is paid MIQ I guess it doesnt matter

"... walk, drive, rollerblade across borders?". Good luck trying that into WA from Sydney. I guess it is also possible to paddle across the Tasman.

You seem concerned about opening to anywhere in AU but the reality is that most AU states/territories have a better record than NZ.

WA are playing particularly hardball. Several months since any CT. Refuse to open their border to any state in AU until every state has 28 consecutive days of zero CT. Not even NT who have had zero CT and only 2 local cases from known sources through the entire duration of the pandemic (https://covidlive.com.au/nt). Until then it's 14 days in quarantine no matter where from (and they made it clear that this applies to Scott M as well. And SM has replied that he considers that appropriate, though adding that he "has no plans to visit there anytime soon" anyway). Don't have to worry about WA though as we have no more chance of getting in without quarantine than SM. They have more reason to be concerned about us than vice versa.

QLD have stated that they require NSW to have 28 consecutive days of zero CT before they will open their border to NSW (other than the small border zone). As of today the NSW-QLD border clock will potentially be reset to 0 as QLD treat any case where the source is not identified within 48 hours as CT.

What makes you think the state borders are a breeze? Over the last ~3 months our border has leaked more covid cases than most interstate borders.

And despite what some here think, at least QLD and WA are just as determined to achieve/maintain elimination as NZ.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/nsw-breaks-streak-of-no-community-transmission-covid-cases-c-1369385

...

The new cases are likely to reset the border clock with Queensland.

“I always said at the outset the Queensland government’s definition of what would make it safe for them to open their border was always very high and something unrealistic, and I think the cases overnight have proven that,” Berejiklian [NSW Premier] said on Wednesday.

You are skewing my post."Good luck trying that into WA from Sydney." Thats a bit silly. Bar Tasmania, every border is land, the ease is obvious.

What makes you think the state borders are a breeze? Over the last ~3 months our border has leaked more covid cases than most interstate borders.

Every border is land. Id like to see the stats around that, particularly as our leaked borders were offenders breaking windows and fences. Easy to count. Does every person who spreads covid in AUS advise the authorities that they went to a mates across the border and spread it? You cannot count that. What we do know is that as an island nation we have a big advantage. AUS is not an island nation as far as states go

I have no real issue with any bubble with AUS, as long as its not treated as easy and safe. Our MIQ is massively more secure than land state borders. If a state has what appears to be a great record, we cannot see that as that safe, given the land borders. If we are realistic, and we accept a bubble with some states, where there is no isolation or quarantine when we return, we need to be aware of the risk, thats all I am saying. Contamination will happen. Low risk, yes, but it will happen, so as long as we accept that smallish risk and the consequences, thats all good. It will come down to giving the economy a 90% boost, knowing that the health is somewhat exposed as is the economy if part of NZ has a short lockdown period from time to time. This may well be the way of the near future. Accept a small risk and the inevitable lockdown in Auckland, to Tauranga or Timaru, if the Kiwi traveller was unlucky.

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#2580864 7-Oct-2020 19:05

Sideface:

Only slightly off-topic ...

Reuters - Billionaires reach record wealth during Covid-19 pandemic

today

Billionaire wealth reached record high levels amid the Covid-19 pandemic, a report by UBS and PwC found, as a rally in stock prices and gains in technology and healthcare helped the wealth of the world's richest break the $US10 trillion mark ($NZ15 trillion).

The report, covering over 2,000 billionaires representing some 98 percent of the cohort's total wealth, found billionaire wealth grew by more than a quarter during the early months of the pandemic to reach $US10.2 trillion in July, breaking the previous record of $US8.9 trillion ($NZ13.5 trillion) at the end of 2019.

The figure represents a five- to ten-fold rise over the past 25 years, the span covered by the UBS and PwC database, when billionaire wealth stood at just over $US1 trillion ($NZ1.5 trillion). ...

"How the other half (0.1%) lives"

It is also all the money that is printed and pumped into it.

NZ isn't much different. We are apparently printing $100 billion, and much is also going into assets like housing to keep the bubble going.

tdgeek

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#2580866 7-Oct-2020 19:06

mattwnz:

NZ is letting a lot more overseas people in per capita than Australia is. Plus we don't have the same flight restrictions they have. So the odds of us importing cases seems a lot higher, this is probably why we have had more leaks as well.

Overseas people? They are Kiwis, where we KNOW they can have Covid and we knowingly let them in. In to MIQ, not into malls and buses. Or are you saying we ban Kiwis and residents? Theoretically the 60,000 of these mean nothing, they go to MIQ. Leaks you can probably count on two hands, and most broke the law as well as windows and fences

Look, if you are happy to let Australians into NZ, no isolation, no quarantine thats all good. It does seem and about turn. Im ok with it as well, as I accept the risk that we will bring in cases, directly into the community, although I imagine that will be infrequent, but it will happen.

tdgeek

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#2580867 7-Oct-2020 19:12

mattwnz:

It is also all the money that is printed and pumped into it.

NZ isn't much different. We are apparently printing $100 billion, and much is also going into assets like housing to keep the bubble going.

OMG are you serious? Last I heard it was way less than 100B, and an amount of that is held back. It was spent supporting wage earners and employers. It wasnt spent building Kiwibuilds other 99486houses, nor buying spec homes

There is a thread on house prices, the supply and demand mismatch are stated there.

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