2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2434936 9-Mar-2020 11:48

Well here is an interesting outcome of CoVid-19...

After Russia and Saudi Arabia couldn't agree on production reductions to support the price of oil last week, there is now an all out oil war between them and the price of crude fell 20% this morning after a 10% fall on Friday as Saudi said they would pump MORE.....

As at 11am NZD Brent is at $35/bbl and WTI at $32/bbl

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html

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#2434938 9-Mar-2020 11:51

wellygary:

Well here is an interesting outcome of CoVid-19...

After Russia and Saudi Arabia couldn't agree on production reductions to support the price of oil last week, there is now an all out oil war between them and the price of crude fell 20% this morning after a 10% fall on Friday as Saudi said they would pump MORE.....

As at 11am NZD Brent is at $35/bbl and WTI at $32/bbl

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html

Awesome. Gas prices here will drop 3c, yippee!

blackjack17

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#2434939 9-Mar-2020 11:52

FineWine:

Retired doctors and nurses may be called on during coronavirus outbreak

After retiring in late 2017, January 2019 was the date I did not renew my nursing Annual Practising Certificate after 30 years of Paediatric nursing. I am within the 5 year period of competencies but not the 3 year period or 60 days/450hrs of practice, nor the 60 hours of professional development. So if I get recalled or I volunteer they are going to have to wave a few things.

Though, having said that, interesting article here: Majority of retired NHS staff don't want to return to tackle Covid-19 crisis

Any other retired health care workers (doctors, nurses, EN's) in these forums who might returned if asked?

Wouldn't those retired doctors and nurses be at most risk from the virus?

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#2434941 9-Mar-2020 11:55

blackjack17:

Wouldn't those retired doctors and nurses be at most risk from the virus?

Yes.

GV27

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#2434944 9-Mar-2020 12:01

From the RNZ discussion this morning, I think they weren't envisioning all the retired personnel being front-line - more things like helping GP clinics/Healthline with phone evaluations and identifying testing candidates.

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#2434962 9-Mar-2020 12:08

GV27:

From the RNZ discussion this morning, I think they weren't envisioning all the retired personnel being front-line - more things like helping GP clinics/Healthline with phone evaluations and identifying testing candidates.

Makes sense, back office, not coalface. Perhaps some coalface in some non Covid-19 related or risk care scenario's to free up other nurses

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#2434963 9-Mar-2020 12:08

Sidestep:

dogstar001:

Further to above NZ has 176 ICU beds not 230, as per the below article

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119906672/coronavirus-nzs-first-case-has-been-confirmed--so-what-happens-now

From memory - if you include HDU (High Dependency beds - 'full care" to ICU standards) to the above, I think you're back around 230.
You might be able to add CCU (Cardiac specialty ICU) and bring that to around 260

something doesn't quite add up with these numbers. i thought you need isolation (negative pressure) rooms? those numbers would be much smaller. or is that not mandatory? if that's the case you can convert wards into makeshift ICUs, staff and equipment being the limiting factor.

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#2434967 9-Mar-2020 12:32

wellygary:

Well here is an interesting outcome of CoVid-19...

After Russia and Saudi Arabia couldn't agree on production reductions to support the price of oil last week, there is now an all out oil war between them and the price of crude fell 20% this morning after a 10% fall on Friday as Saudi said they would pump MORE.....

As at 11am NZD Brent is at $35/bbl and WTI at $32/bbl

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html

It is very interesting.. well played Russia..

The the existing production OPEC+1 cuts expire on April 1.
The Saudis and other OPEC countries have threatened they'll raise output then, causing a global oil glut.

It's a pointed attempt by Russia to destroy the USA's fracking boom - and something OPEC'd be fine with as a side effect of what they're threatening..
A geopolitical play on the fact that the US seems to be completely unprepared for the immediate and longer term effects of world coronavirus spread.

US/Canadian oil Co's have over $200 billion in debt maturing in the next four years - $40 billion due this year.
That's because US shale drilling's basically unprofitable, and has required huge injections of capital, massive levels of drilling to churn enough product to keep the payments up.

Expect US energy stocks to collapse. (Edit - unless it's a bluff. The Saudis need $70 oil long term)

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#2434976 9-Mar-2020 12:41

Batman:

something doesn't quite add up with these numbers. i thought you need isolation (negative pressure) rooms? those numbers would be much smaller. or is that not mandatory? if that's the case you can convert wards into makeshift ICUs, staff and equipment being the limiting factor.

Otago Daily Times says there are 268 negative pressure rooms across the country.

Edit: I'm pretty sure more can be jury rigged if necessary - other countries have done/are doing it.

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#2434981 9-Mar-2020 13:01

I'm booked for three days travel in Aussie in a couple of days. The pragmatist in me says travel to Aus is no different than domestic travel, and in a month or so it will be well and truly out in our local community (probably is now), so life should proceed as per normal. The other part of me is wondering if should stay put?

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#2434995 9-Mar-2020 13:13

The rule should have been, if you return from an infected country, particularly Italy which was No.3 in the world when she arrived, you MUST quarantine at home.

You cannot simply lump an entire country together. As an obvious example, the risk from visiting Hawaii is NOT the same as the risk from visiting the rest of the USA.
NB: NZ is now an "infected country ". We've been round this loop already; can you confirm that you don't actually mean what you wrote? So people visiting the North Island from the South Island or vice versa don't have to be quarantined?

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#2435001 9-Mar-2020 13:28

wellygary:
Well here is an interesting outcome of CoVid-19...

After Russia and Saudi Arabia couldn't agree on production reductions to support the price of oil last week, there is now an all out oil war between them and the price of crude fell 20% this morning after a 10% fall on Friday as Saudi said they would pump MORE.....

As at 11am NZD Brent is at $35/bbl and WTI at $32/bbl

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html

I don't see how this is related to covid-19. Unless self isolation has reduced transport demand and therefore oil demand.

tdgeek

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#2435004 9-Mar-2020 13:35

frankv:
The rule should have been, if you return from an infected country, particularly Italy which was No.3 in the world when she arrived, you MUST quarantine at home.

You cannot simply lump an entire country together. As an obvious example, the risk from visiting Hawaii is NOT the same as the risk from visiting the rest of the USA.
NB: NZ is now an "infected country ". We've been round this loop already; can you confirm that you don't actually mean what you wrote? So people visiting the North Island from the South Island or vice versa don't have to be quarantined?

Yes we have, welcome back. :-) No, If you flew back from Bosnia which IIRC has one case now, I would not look into locking down Auckland, banning Uber, and so on. If say the country called the USA was at high risk, which it actuially is in places, and Hawaii or Alaska has zero casees,. then no, I would not include those two states. They are zero cases and they share no border with mainland USA. Now you say North Island and South Island, is just plain silly.

You may accept the way that we manage this, but we dont all have to. The way we manage this is that we dont want to upset anything or anyone, so we accept cases will come here, and we are quite ok with that. Thats your policy as well as the governments. Risk. Its worth it. Correct?

Why do we now have a self isolation requirement for Italy? No idea, I agree. When they has 322 cases and were No.3 in total case numberes we didnt either.

Quarantine works, but not if its after allowing countless passengers in with little or no screening.

China has aggressively quarantined, look at the cases now. Italy will get there. Yes, NZ is an infected country if someone wants to add a 14 day self isolation thats fine, but NZ wont add that when they are No.3 and 322 known cases? I fully get the risk angle, a few deaths is quite ok as long as its not too many and not many others arent inconvenienced too much. Thats our policy. My opinion is that while we dont need to lock down everything, we react far too late and far too timidly.

A little more postive action, a little sooner rathrr than always being reactive might save a few lives here, and also might help reduce it being eveywhere here, which is quite likely.

BlueShift

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#2435005 9-Mar-2020 13:35

frankv:
wellygary:

Well here is an interesting outcome of CoVid-19...

After Russia and Saudi Arabia couldn't agree on production reductions to support the price of oil last week, there is now an all out oil war between them and the price of crude fell 20% this morning after a 10% fall on Friday as Saudi said they would pump MORE.....

As at 11am NZD Brent is at $35/bbl and WTI at $32/bbl

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.html

I don't see how this is related to covid-19. Unless self isolation has reduced transport demand and therefore oil demand.

Oil demand has increased 14.8% due to the convoys of trucks replenishing the nation's toilet paper stocks.

frankv

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#2435006 9-Mar-2020 13:37

Sidestep: The Saudis need $70 oil long term)

Getting off topic, but oil isn't long term. Every increase (or even maintaining the current price) will push people towards EVs, and a reduction in oil demand. Saudi Arabia needs to sell all their oil while there is still a demand for it.

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