2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2582759 11-Oct-2020 21:59

There is something to be said for this. Localised lockdowns are working for us. But some places where covid is out of control, what is the point of a lockdown. If you are venerable, isolate and wait it out, ideally with state support.
The places in the middle of the extremes (ie Europe) are between a rock and a hard place...
And as for poorer countries, sadly they have no choice.

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#2582760 11-Oct-2020 22:05

Yeaaaapp. They're almost a good example of places where a great enough part of the population is not doing the right thing for others. Or suffering from MEMEMEMEism.

Sure not going to do our local stance any favours being front and centre like it is there. At least bury it away under the worldwide headlines or it's just the push some of the borderline groups will be on the lookout for.

Guess if there is a real media standup it will be one of the questions laid out, asking for local authority responce to it.

mattwnz

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#2582761 11-Oct-2020 22:06

The lockdowns in many countries overseas is mainly about not letting the virus overwhelm the health system. Eg flattening the curve. So the need regular lockdowns each time the active virus numbers increase to a certain level.

ezbee

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#2582767 11-Oct-2020 22:45

World Health organization is determined to shoot itself in the foot... Again.

Each country and region has its own unique issues, and capabilities, so paths will be different.
One size does not fit all.

"or in the Pacific because people aren't taking their holidays"

Because this worked so well for Tahiti ? Spain ? Iceland ? etc.
At least Spain and Iceland have resources to push this back, and further help close by, for Pacific Islands not really.

The devastation this might do in places that don't have medical infrastructure, and ability to trace.
Samoa with recent Measles outbreak , and lesson from 1918 pandemic for example.

Quick opening..
Well even if it had just been New Zealand and Aussie how would that have worked out a few months back ?
As we and Melbourne had big outbreaks which would have spread to them ?

I think our Navy is down to one supply vessel and coastal craft the rest stuck in Canadian shipyards.
The Hercs are living on old spare parts, and can't be deployed to deliver aid lightly I expect.

However its is looking like with lessons that have been learned there is a chance we can put in place systems that can be safe , if its not hurried.
Aussie well that is more complicated, or state of play.

Tourists from rest of the world, Taiwan ( Affluent , Semiconductor and other tech business is humming along ) ?, but China would block that ,
otherwise Yeh..Nah...

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#2582800 12-Oct-2020 06:42

coronavirus survives 28 days on certain surfaces https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300129998/covid19-coronavirus-can-survive-on-phone-screens-bank-notes-for-up-to-four-weeks-study-finds

tdgeek

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#2582803 12-Oct-2020 07:13

Oblivian:

Well, that's one way to spark the rest of the nation to throw in the towel next time around.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-world-health-organisation-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/DQMBCUNNRCHCBLCITIMKOYXLRU/

How I read that is that a full lockdown is the primary tool. So you can get other practices in place. Worked here, one full lockdown, practices have been evolving into place, an outbreak which was a shorter, regional and lesser lockdown. I feel the article is aimed at those that fully lockdown, ease up when not prepared and fully lockdown again and again

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#2582805 12-Oct-2020 07:17

ezbee:

Quick opening..
Well even if it had just been New Zealand and Aussie how would that have worked out a few months back ?
As we and Melbourne had big outbreaks which would have spread to them ?

We had a small outbreak, and there was no mention of a quick opening except by some politicians. Had AUS achieved a better result, then a bubble was a sensible option, but they never did.

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#2582833 12-Oct-2020 09:03

"He called it a 'scamdemic.' Then his family fell ill, one by one."

I used to call it the "scamdemic." I thought it was an overblown media hoax. I made fun of people for wearing masks. I went all the way down the rabbit hole and fell hard on my own sword, so if you want to hate me or blame me, that's fine. I'm doing plenty of that myself.

The party was my idea. That's what I can't get over. Well, I mean, it wasn't even a party - more like a get-together. There were just six of us, OK? My parents, my partner, and my partner's parents. We'd been locked down for months at that point in Texas, and the governor had just come out and said small gatherings were probably OK. We're a close family, and we hadn't been together in forever. It was finally summer. I thought the worst was behind us. I was like: "Hell, let's get on with our lives. What are we so afraid of?"

...

Six infections turned into nine. Nine went up to 14. It spread from one family member to the next, and it was like each person caught a different strain. My mother-in-law got it and never had any real symptoms. My father is 78, and he went to get checked out at the hospital, but for whatever reasons, he seemed to recover really fast. My father-in-law nearly died in his living room and then ended up in the same hospital as me on the exact same day. His mother was in the room right next to him because she was having trouble breathing. They were lying there on both sides of the wall, fighting the same virus, and neither of them ever knew the other one was there. She died after a few weeks. On the day of her funeral, five more family members tested positive.

...

I hung up, and a few hours later I got a call from my mother-in-law. She was hysterical. She could barely speak. She said one of his lungs had collapsed and the other was filling with fluid. They put him on a ventilator, and he lay there on life support for six or seven weeks. There was never any goodbye. He was just gone. It's like the world swallowed him up. We could only have 10 people at the funeral, and I didn't make that list.

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#2582834 12-Oct-2020 09:07

"Czech Republic goes from model Covid-19 response to brink of second lockdown"

The Czech Republic could be set for a second lockdown following a dramatic rise in Covid-19 infections that has transformed it into Europe’s fastest growing outbreak just months after being hailed as one of the continent’s success stories in managing the pandemic.

A new peak of 8,618 cases was recorded on Friday in the country of 10.7 million, up more than 3,000 on the previous day and significantly more per capita than any other European state. Spain, with a population of just under 47 million and currently the second worst-affected country, documented 12,788 infections on the same day.

The Czech Republic has now recorded 451.2 Covid cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a 14-day period, compared with 308.1 for Spain, according to European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention statistics.

Friday’s figure, which raises the number of infections recorded in the first 10 days of October above that for the whole of September, left politicians and health experts scrambling for solutions within days of introducing a state of emergency last week.

The government brought forward a range of regulations last week, including orders to shut pubs at 8pm, limits on restaurant service to four patrons per table, and closing gyms, swimming pools and zoos.

All sporting, cultural and religious events with more than 10 people indoors and 20 outdoors are prohibited from Monday, and secondary schools and universities have been restricted to distance learning.

All in all, New Zealand is living as normal a life as possible. We are lucky we don't have dry borders like European countries do and we have been together in this - except for the odd lunatics that are still spewing conspiracy theories on Facebook and other sites.

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#2582854 12-Oct-2020 09:21

freitasm:

"He called it a 'scamdemic.' Then his family fell ill, one by one."

I used to call it the "scamdemic." I thought it was an overblown media hoax. I made fun of people for wearing masks. I went all the way down the rabbit hole and fell hard on my own sword, so if you want to hate me or blame me, that's fine. I'm doing plenty of that myself.

The party was my idea. That's what I can't get over. Well, I mean, it wasn't even a party - more like a get-together. There were just six of us, OK? My parents, my partner, and my partner's parents. We'd been locked down for months at that point in Texas, and the governor had just come out and said small gatherings were probably OK. We're a close family, and we hadn't been together in forever. It was finally summer. I thought the worst was behind us. I was like: "Hell, let's get on with our lives. What are we so afraid of?"

...

Six infections turned into nine. Nine went up to 14. It spread from one family member to the next, and it was like each person caught a different strain. My mother-in-law got it and never had any real symptoms. My father is 78, and he went to get checked out at the hospital, but for whatever reasons, he seemed to recover really fast. My father-in-law nearly died in his living room and then ended up in the same hospital as me on the exact same day. His mother was in the room right next to him because she was having trouble breathing. They were lying there on both sides of the wall, fighting the same virus, and neither of them ever knew the other one was there. She died after a few weeks. On the day of her funeral, five more family members tested positive.

...

I hung up, and a few hours later I got a call from my mother-in-law. She was hysterical. She could barely speak. She said one of his lungs had collapsed and the other was filling with fluid. They put him on a ventilator, and he lay there on life support for six or seven weeks. There was never any goodbye. He was just gone. It's like the world swallowed him up. We could only have 10 people at the funeral, and I didn't make that list.

That's a heavy but sobering read...and should be compulsory reading for all the deniers...but they'd deny that it's real, I guess.

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freitasm

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#2582861 12-Oct-2020 09:40

"America’s newest wave of Covid-19 cases, explained"

The goal would be to have fewer than 40 new cases per million people. But just three states — Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire — meet that threshold. Meanwhile, North Dakota (627 cases per million), South Dakota (596), Montana (474), and Wisconsin (434) are some of the states seeing very high levels of new infections.

As Vox’s German Lopez reported this week, just one state — Maine — meets all of the benchmarks established by experts for a state to consider its Covid-19 outbreak contained. And yet, most states have reopened many of the businesses that were closed in the spring: 40 or so states have reopened restaurants, bars, gyms, movie theaters, and nonessential retail.

“Part of the problem is America never really suppressed its Covid-19 cases to begin with,” Lopez wrote, explaining why experts were anticipating a new surge in cases. “Think of a disease epidemic like a forest fire: It’s going to be really difficult to contain the virus when there are still flames raging in parts of the forest and small embers practically everywhere.

The country always risks a full blaze with each step toward reopening and with each failure to take precautions seriously.”“Part of the problem is America never really suppressed its Covid-19 cases to begin with,” Lopez wrote, explaining why experts were anticipating a new surge in cases. “Think of a disease epidemic like a forest fire: It’s going to be really difficult to contain the virus when there are still flames raging in parts of the forest and small embers practically everywhere. The country always risks a full blaze with each step toward reopening and with each failure to take precautions seriously.”

Another closely watched indicator for renewed Covid-19 spread is the percentage of coronavirus tests that come back positive. The number of tests being conducted doesn’t actually tell you all that much; if a high percentage of them are positive, that suggests that many others aren’t being caught at all and the virus could continue to spread unchecked.

So while the US is now averaging nearly 1 million tests every day, that is not quite the triumph it might sound like (or President Donald Trump would like to believe it is). The country’s positive test rate is 5 percent, right at the threshold experts say would reflect adequate testing. Ideally, it would be even lower, 2 percent or less.

But even with that passable national positivity rate, most states are still not conducting nearly enough testing. Here are the 10 states with the highest positive test rates, according to Covid Exit Strategy:

Idaho (25 percent)
South Dakota (20.6 percent)
Wisconsin (19.5 percent)
Iowa (17.1 percent)
Kansas (16.1 percent)
Wyoming (15.5 percent)
Utah (14.7 percent)
Nevada (14.4 percent)
Indiana (13.6 percent)
Alabama (13.3 percent)

It’s really only a handful of better-performing states — namely, New York, with more than 115,000 tests conducted per day and a 1.2 percent positivity rate — that’s keeping the US’s overall positive test rate from looking a lot worse.

Wealthy countries like Germany and South Korea have used effective test-trace-isolate programs to keep their Covid-19 outbreaks in check. The US, meanwhile, is still struggling to perform enough tests or scale up its contact tracing capabilities. Just 11 states, plus the District of Columbia, could realistically expect to perform adequate contact tracing, according to Covid Exit Strategy, considering their positivity rate.

Without improvement in both of those areas, it will continue to be difficult for the US to contain the coronavirus before a vaccine becomes available.

These numbers are mind-blowing.

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#2582864 12-Oct-2020 09:42

Yes but people who don't believe will think that story is a hoax. Unless it happens to them and then they become the hoax to others in the same group. That's the reality we live in since 2016. In fact this reality/era has a name. We live in the post-truth era.

Oblivian

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#2582884 12-Oct-2020 09:57

Another closely watched indicator for renewed Covid-19 spread is the percentage of coronavirus tests that come back positive. The number of tests being conducted doesn’t actually tell you all that much; if a high percentage of them are positive, that suggests that many others aren’t being caught at all and the virus could continue to spread unchecked.

It's reassuring to know there are some smarter persons than I also discounting 'if you test more you find more' as a false indicator if the percentage found doesn't go down as a result of a higher number.

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#2582923 12-Oct-2020 10:39

freitasm:
"America’s newest wave of Covid-19 cases, explained"
...Idaho (25 percent)

I've had two different American relatives saying they don't want to hear anything about COVID anymore, because it's political.

Another American relative is actually a doctor in palliative care (a condition that cannot be cured and may at some time result in the person dying)

He's just disgusted with the entire American health care system. He has signed (rather bland) petitions that Americans needs healthcare for all.

To paraphrase the American founding fathers, Americans should hold that truth to be self-evident

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#2583210 12-Oct-2020 16:53

Press release:

Border exceptions for a small number of international students with visas

The Government has established a new category that will allow 250 international PhD and postgraduate students to enter New Zealand and continue their studies, in the latest set of border exceptions.

“The health, safety and wellbeing of people in New Zealand remains the Government’s top priority. Tight border restrictions remain critical to protecting New Zealanders against COVID-19 and ensuring that Kiwis can return home,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said.

“There are many calls on the Government to grant exceptions. So far around 10,400 exceptions have been granted for people such as essential health workers, other critical workers and family of New Zealand citizens or permanent residents.

“Just last month, new exceptions were announced for some normally resident temporary visa holders, more partners of New Zealanders, and a limited number of veterinarians, deep water fishing crew and agricultural and horticultural mobile plant operators.

“The exception today is a balanced decision that recognises the vital role international education will play in the recovery and rebuild of New Zealand and the need to continue the fight against the pandemic. It will enable us to welcome back a good portion of those PhD and Masters students who are caught off-shore, and who need to be in New Zealand to complete their work.

“These are students who hold or held a visa for 2020, and whose long-term commitment to study here was disrupted by COVID-19. Priority will be given first to those who need to be in the country for the practical components of their research and study.

“The first students are likely to arrive November 2020, with the majority arriving in the new year.

“The number of international students we are granting exceptions for is a very small proportion compared to the numbers we are used to. I acknowledge that other international education providers, such as schools and Private Training Establishments, will be disappointed that their students are not a part of this border exception group.

“Our approach is pragmatic and allows us to carefully manage the demand on our quarantine facilities and the complex nature of bringing students back into the country.

“Allowing these students to travel to New Zealand is a step in the right direction for the international education sector. The Government will review other possible border exceptions, as and when it is safe to do so.

“International PhDs and other postgraduate students make a significant contribution to our research and innovation systems and boost the global reputations and competitiveness of our institutions,” Chris Hipkins said.

The Ministry of Education will now contact Tertiary Education Organisations to work through student identification and selection. Students that have questions about this process should contact their providers in the first instance.

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