2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2740401 7-Jul-2021 10:26

Interesting article from the BBC News site: Why it's time to think differently about Covid

So essentially England (Britain) from July 19th is going to be one giant 56 million test tube with scatterings of Petrie dish's.

No masking, No gathering restrictions, NO QR coding, life back to pre COVID normal. There is one hell of a lot of assumptions with the science advise here.

How many people in the UK have been vaccinated so far?

Wales has vaccinated 90% of those aged 18 and over with at least one dose, while Scotland has reached 86%, England 85% and Northern Ireland 80%.

So, obviously no elimination strategy, rather they treat it like the annual flu season with yearly boaster shots. The overall aim being to hold deaths to an absolute minimum, reduce hospitalisations to NHS manageability and life goes on - do you want a Cornish Pasty with that?

It will be very interesting to watch this play out because the other National test tube is Israel a country who has done a fairly good job of containment and vaccinations, is now reporting a new, small, wave mainly due to the Delta variant which is throwing up a decrease in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine in preventing infections and symptomatic illness but is remaining highly effective in preventing serious illness therefore reducing hospitalisations and deaths.

Will the Peruvian Lambada variant be a problem like the Delta variant ? Will there be in the future even more troublesome variants ? People and politicians who think we should be now treating the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) like the common flu are nuts. I think we are going to see even nastier and deadlier variants of the SARS-CoV-2 and the human race will for at least a generation or two, be playing catch up. Perhaps one day our bodies will adapt and yes we could be able to look at it like the common cold or flu but for our now existing generations it is going to be a case of whack-a-mole.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

antonknee

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#2740428 7-Jul-2021 10:45

sbiddle:

Batman:

more expert opinion on our country

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125665800/covid19-prepare-for-the-year-of-outbreaks-in-aotearoa

The problem I see right now is all the experts including Bloomfield now warning us of the cold hard realities of what life is going to be like here in coming years, and a Govt that's telling us the opposite.

You keep making this claim - but you have yet to back this up? I have not seen the government say anything of the sort. Nowhere have I seen a promise that all is well, land of milk and honey, we'll never see another outbreak. In fact it's the opposite - I've always seen the government say outbreaks could happen, but that we'll deal with them in line with our strategy as it applies when they happen.

Respectfully, unless you can point to where the government has told us the opposite (and actually told us the opposite, not just said "we're watching what others do" or "we're doing a vaccination program" then I would assert that you're basically just spreading unhelpful FUD or disinformation.

Fred99

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#2740443 7-Jul-2021 11:13

Bloomfield did float the possibility that we could need to go to an "alert level 2.5" when opening the border, IIRC Ardern refuted that and suggested he "misspoke" and could be more like "alert level 1.5". Bloomfield backed down. Doesn't matter, the alert levels get tweaked anyway - they were never much more than an attempt to make things seem simple.

I don't think there's anything resembling a "conspiracy" there, just a mistake on consistent messaging.

Getting most of the population vaccinated is incredibly important, a message that "even when vaccination program is rolled out we'll still be locked down" only feeds the "vaccine hesitant" with thoughts that vaccination "doesn't work", and risks sabotaging the whole exit process. "The vaccine is going to get us out of this fix" is a more palatable message. Between "we're all doomed" and "we'll all be back to normal soon" is where the truth will be. And nobody knows just how that's going to roll out. That's not "failure" - despite political opportunists trying to portray it as such.

FineWine

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#2740481 7-Jul-2021 12:24

Fred99:

Bloomfield did float the possibility that we could need to go to an "alert level 2.5" when opening the border, IIRC Ardern refuted that and suggested he "misspoke" and could be more like "alert level 1.5". Bloomfield backed down. Doesn't matter, the alert levels get tweaked anyway - they were never much more than an attempt to make things seem simple.

I don't think there's anything resembling a "conspiracy" there, just a mistake on consistent messaging.

Getting most of the population vaccinated is incredibly important, a message that "even when vaccination program is rolled out we'll still be locked down" only feeds the "vaccine hesitant" with thoughts that vaccination "doesn't work", and risks sabotaging the whole exit process. "The vaccine is going to get us out of this fix" is a more palatable message. Between "we're all doomed" and "we'll all be back to normal soon" is where the truth will be. And nobody knows just how that's going to roll out. That's not "failure" - despite political opportunists trying to portray it as such.

There is always going to be different messaging coming from politicians who have egos that need to be feed and scientists who need to be proven. The extreme of this was DJ Trump versus his scientists. At least our politicians by in large listen and inwardly digest what our scientists are saying and yes it is a hard pill our elected egotists have to swallow sometimes.

Though the High Court found that the initial 9 days of the lockdown was illegal, it was justified. PM Aderns Churchillian behaviour and actions were the correct thing to do at that time and did save dollars and life's but was still within the democratic principles of this country, no matter how much and how loud the Nationals bleat. (or the far right)

"alert level 1.5", "alert level 2.5" means nothing to the virus. This is a moving and ever evolving feast of knowns and unknowns and it is a wasted exercise in trying to second guess an organism that doesn't give two F's about its host so long as the host is still alive to enable it to multiply. The "Chicken Little's" should just go home and lock their doors cause they are the ones who are disrupting the authorities attempt at consistent palatable messaging.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

GV27

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#2740490 7-Jul-2021 12:55

FineWine:

Though the High Court found that the initial 9 days of the lockdown was illegal, it was justified. PM Aderns Churchillian behaviour and actions were the correct thing to do at that time and did save dollars and life's but was still within the democratic principles of this country, no matter how much and how loud the Nationals bleat. (or the far right)

...and no amount of moral high-ground will change the fact it wasn't done legally (see: properly) either. The democratic principles of this country are that we expect the state to not exceed the limits of its powers, which it did.

So the correct thing to do at the time from a purely public health point of view, but you can't really argue a state-enforced lockdown with no legal basis as having its roots in our 'democratic principles'. Fitzgerald Muldoon and so on.

GV27

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#2740493 7-Jul-2021 13:00

Single-dose Jansen approved for use - from CDC:

The J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine was 66.3% effective in clinical trials (efficacy) at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection in people who received the vaccine and had no evidence of being previously infected. People had the most protection 2 weeks after getting vaccinated.
In the clinical trials, the vaccine had high efficacy at preventing hospitalization and death in people who did get sick. No one who got COVID-19 at least 4 weeks after receiving the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine had to be hospitalized.

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DS248

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#2740551 7-Jul-2021 13:27

FineWine:

... the other National test tube is Israel a country who has done a fairly good job of containment and vaccinations, is now reporting a new, small, wave mainly due to the Delta variant which is throwing up a decrease in the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine in preventing infections and symptomatic illness but is remaining highly effective in preventing serious illness therefore reducing hospitalisations and deaths.

...

This keeps getting repeated.

Yes, there were statements out of Israel to that effect a week or so ago but it is not what the latest Israeli data appear to show.

New case numbers in Israel started rising sharply about three weeks ago after most restrictions had been lifted. And are still increasing.

Up to a week ago, serious illness cases remained low after bottoming out at 2/week about three weeks ago. But this simply reflected the lag between case detection and serious illness.

Over the last week serious illness cases have started trending up, now standing at an average of 5/day over the last 4 days.

Still 'small' numbers but it is a factor of 15 increase and compared to new case numbers per day ~10 days ago (7-day ave = 205), represents a 'lagged serious illness case' ratio of ~2.5% (for a ~10 day lag).

That is about the same as it was during their peak of cases in the latter half of January*, during the early stages of their vaccine rollout. That is, the lagged 'serious illness case' ratio is no lower now than it was 5 - 6 months ago.

(* rate did peak at ~double that in early Dec 20 after being ~2% - 2.5% during Oct 20. But even comparing to the Dec 20 figure does not suggest 'highly effective'. Not easy to compare given variable lags between detection and serious illness for individuals)

A couple of related points

Current predominant strain is Delta
The testing rate is high: week day average last week was ~60,000 tests per day in Israel. Per capita that is ~5x the current test rate in NZ and higher than the maximum tested in a single day in NZ at any stage during the pandemic.
Though restrictions were substantially relaxed, the current Oxford Stringency Index (29.6) is higher than the figure for NZ (22.2).
I'm not certain what they classify as 'serious illness' (Google translation) but 33/35 of people on respirators over the last month were in the 40+ age groups where vaccination rate are high, ~81% (fully) / 86%(single dose) in 40-49 age group to ~93% / 95% for 70-79.
The 'data dashboard' does not identify what proportion of cases or illness is in vaccinated vs unvaccinated but -
- If the seriously ill cases were predominantly unvaccinated, that would imply a high 'serious illness case' ratio in unvaccinated people; much higher than it was back in January (unlikely?)
- Either way is not indicating strong evidence of 'herd immunity' against Delta at the levels of 'stringency' and vaccination in Israel.

There are of course many other factors at play but at face value the latest data do not yet appear to be adequate to conclude high effectiveness against serious illness from the Delta strain. May be clearer in a couple of weeks; that is, whether the serious illness cases continue to track up in response to the higher numbers of cases over the last ten days.

Fred99

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#2740559 7-Jul-2021 13:32

27 new cases in Sydney, lockdown extended until 17 July.

Once again while that's not terrible it's not good - no doubt it falls short of what they'd hoped for.

Of the cases so far in this outbreak, six are in intensive care, two are on mechanical ventilation.

GV27

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#2740585 7-Jul-2021 14:32

Sounds like Jansen offers some protection against Delta variant. Keen to know if you can get a single-jab Jansen and then follow-up with a Pfizer later to improve protection.

DS248

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#2740590 7-Jul-2021 14:42

DS248:

...

There are of course many other factors at play but at face value the latest data do not yet appear to be adequate to conclude high effectiveness against serious illness from the Delta strain. May be clearer in a couple of weeks; that is, whether the serious illness cases continue to track up in response to the higher numbers of cases over the last ten days.

I should have added that the intention was not to imply that the vaccine is ineffective. Just that the data are not yet adequate to conclude it as being 'highly effective' against serious illness from the Delta variant.

Will probably not be able to better assess the effectiveness until a month or so after the current spike in cases has peaked. Also requires more detailed data on vaccination status of infections and seriously ill cases. Difficult to assess reliably in an environment of rapidly increasing or rapidly decreasing case numbers.

Possibly the main takeaway at this point is that NZ will need to tread carefully with any further border relaxation until vaccination rates are in line with (or preferably better) than those in Israel. That will likely be a stretch. Plus will probably need some tightening of non-pharmacological measures given that the NZ OSI figure is (and has long been) lower than the Israeli figure. They did drop down to the NZ level 3 weeks ago but quickly reverted when case numbers started rising rapidly.

wellygary

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#2740597 7-Jul-2021 14:50

GV27:

Sounds like Jansen offers some protection against Delta variant. Keen to know if you can get a single-jab Jansen and then follow-up with a Pfizer later to improve protection.

Pretty sure the answer is a big No,

things may change in the future, but I would not expect a change unless their is overwhelming international evidence of a significantly better outcome

"Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said in a statement the Government is not currently considering mixed doses of Covid vaccines, but is keeping an eye on the science in this space."

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/govt-not-changing-vaccine-plan-despite-other-nations-using-mix-and-match-schemes

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Fred99

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#2740661 7-Jul-2021 15:33

Further to numbers in Sydney cluster hospitalised in ICU (6) or needing mechanical ventilation (2).

Chief health officer Kerry Chant said the myth of the virus only impacting the elderly was not true, with 14 out of the 37 hospitalised patients under the age of 55 and a further eight patients under the age of 35.

"It is a bit of a wake-up call to young people," she said.

"The Delta strain is not a mild disease. It can be mild in some but for many it can lead to hospitalisation and death."

That's about 12% of cases in the Delta variant cluster patients needing hospitalisation (so far), about double the typical reported (final) hospitalisation rate for Alpha variant.

Batman

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#2740674 7-Jul-2021 16:02

Kids apparently using drinks to create positive covid tests to get out of school?

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210705-how-children-are-spoofing-covid-19-tests-with-soft-drinks

wellygary

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#2740687 7-Jul-2021 16:30

Batman: Kids apparently using drinks to create positive covid tests to get out of school?

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210705-how-children-are-spoofing-covid-19-tests-with-soft-drinks

Although only works for rapid antigen tests, that aren't widely used in NZ, ..

Its a bit harder to keep softdrinks in you throat while someone is stuffing a stick the size of the Eiffel tower up you schnozz. :)

tdgeek

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#2740758 7-Jul-2021 17:46

GV27:

FineWine:

Though the High Court found that the initial 9 days of the lockdown was illegal, it was justified. PM Aderns Churchillian behaviour and actions were the correct thing to do at that time and did save dollars and life's but was still within the democratic principles of this country, no matter how much and how loud the Nationals bleat. (or the far right)

...and no amount of moral high-ground will change the fact it wasn't done legally (see: properly) either. The democratic principles of this country are that we expect the state to not exceed the limits of its powers, which it did.

So the correct thing to do at the time from a purely public health point of view, but you can't really argue a state-enforced lockdown with no legal basis as having its roots in our 'democratic principles'. Fitzgerald Muldoon and so on.

The "greater good" comes to mind. Or we could do the legal thing and be like the UK? The moral is there is a correct thing to do. In hindsight the statutes were incorrect, its good that we can look at that and do whats right

.and no amount of moral high-ground will change the fact it wasn't done legally

Go the UK...../NZ

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