2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2758469 11-Aug-2021 10:35

Technofreak:

There's regularly been 2000 unallocated beds each day and we keep getting told space is tight in MIQ. Until recently it was possible to see these numbers but now access to that information has been blocked. Rather than the transparency this government promised this is another example of their opaqueness.

I agree with the comment re transparency, however I think you will find that the facilities are currently running at over 100% of operational capacity.

DS248

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#2758475 11-Aug-2021 10:49

Fred99:

DS248:

Lending support to the herd immunity issue with Delta, Israeli data

Not that it means that it's wrong, but Israeli data is an outlier.

...

Maybe not as much an outlier as you imagine.

Below are Singapore C19 case rates vs vaccination status for the 28 day period to 8 Aug (mix of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines).

No age details and not quite so close (+/-)**; eg. unvaccinated = 27.8% of population vs 24.6% testing positive for C19 had not been vaccinated.

Certainly not inconsistent with the Israeli data.

(** more scatter expected for these data given the factor of 20 fewer cases in Singapore).

Technofreak

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#2758478 11-Aug-2021 10:52

Ge0rge:

Technofreak:

There's regularly been 2000 unallocated beds each day and we keep getting told space is tight in MIQ. Until recently it was possible to see these numbers but now access to that information has been blocked. Rather than the transparency this government promised this is another example of their opaqueness.

I agree with the comment re transparency, however I think you will find that the facilities are currently running at over 100% of operational capacity.

What do you mean by operational capacity? How come we have so many empty rooms?

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Fred99

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#2758480 11-Aug-2021 10:55

I don't even agree about the transparency comments.

By comparison, take a look across the Tasman where the NSW government is blocking release of data used to make decisions about lockdowns in an upper house enquiry about how data was used make decisions about lockdowns.

It's like an episode of Yes Minister or a John Clark skit - except tragic.

Partisan whiners need to get a grip on the fact that a response to questions like "when can we open up" that have been given aren't evidence of some cover-up conspiracy that suits their "Jacinda Bad" lunacy.

To paraphrase those - "when it's safe to do so - we can't say when that will be" is not covering up anything at all.

If you think "they know but aren't telling us" - you're a conspiracy theorist.

Fred99

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#2758481 11-Aug-2021 10:59

Technofreak:

What do you mean by operational capacity? How come we have so many empty rooms?

They don't.

The top secret data being hidden by the Evil Communist Dictator of the Empire (/s) is all here:

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/economic-development/covid-19-data-resources/managed-isolation-and-quarantine-data/

Technofreak

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#2758487 11-Aug-2021 11:08

Fred99:

I don't even agree about the transparency comments.

By comparison, take a look across the Tasman where the NSW government is blocking release of data used to make decisions about lockdowns in an upper house enquiry about how data was used make decisions about lockdowns.

It's like an episode of Yes Minister or a John Clark skit - except tragic.

Partisan whiners need to get a grip on the fact that a response to questions like "when can we open up" that have been given aren't evidence of some cover-up conspiracy that suits their "Jacinda Bad" lunacy.

To paraphrase those - "when it's safe to do so - we can't say when that will be" is not covering up anything at all.

If you think "they know but aren't telling us" - you're a conspiracy theorist.

It a pretty weak argument justifying what happens here by saying somewhere else is worse.

Where did you get this conspiracy idea from? Where did I say anything like that? I certainly don't see any conspiracy or cover up when there's an answer like "when it's safe to do so - we can't say when that will be". Depending on the question and the context of how/when it was asked and the actual answer given my conclusion will range from they genuinely don't know to they have no idea what they're doing or have no plan at all.

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Ge0rge

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#2758490 11-Aug-2021 11:11

Technofreak:

What do you mean by operational capacity? How come we have so many empty rooms?

There are x number of rooms in total available for MIQ across the country. There are y number of rooms that make up the "operational capacity" - the rooms that are allocated in MIAS. Y is less than x to allow for contingencies / emergencies - a hotel burns down and occupants need to be moved, a travel bubble collapses and people need to be repatriated via MIQ, etc.

Current usage of y is over 100%. X is only a little larger than y.

If we use 100% of x, there is no contingency, hence "operational capacity" vs "total capacity". Some facilities are also designated for positive cases only, so they are - touch wood - very rarely running close to full.

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#2758492 11-Aug-2021 11:13

DS248:

That's sobering

Technofreak

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#2758496 11-Aug-2021 11:20

Fred99:

Technofreak:

What do you mean by operational capacity? How come we have so many empty rooms?

They don't.

The top secret data being hidden by the Evil Communist Dictator of the Empire (/s) is all here:

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/business-and-employment/economic-development/covid-19-data-resources/managed-isolation-and-quarantine-data/

If you read that link it tells you they now no longer show how many empty rooms they have. This change happened at the end of July and is exactly what I said.

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DS248

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#2758497 11-Aug-2021 11:22

DS248:

Fred99:

...

Not that it means that it's wrong, but Israeli data is an outlier.

...

Maybe not as much an outlier as you imagine.

Below are Singapore C19 case rates vs vaccination status for the 28 day period to 8 Aug (mix of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines).

No age details and not quite so close (+/-)**; eg. unvaccinated = 27.8% of population vs 24.6% testing positive for C19 had not been vaccinated.

Certainly not inconsistent with the Israeli data.

(** more scatter expected for these data given the factor of 20 fewer cases in Singapore).

One outcome of these data (Israel & Singapore) is that no reliance should be placed on the current vaccine to limit the risk of border and frontline staff being infected. Yes, should reduce the risk of the staff becoming severely ill but full non-pharm measures are still critical if we want to minimise the risk of Delta breaching our border.

Fred99

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#2758510 11-Aug-2021 11:25

DS248:

Where did that come from? The official data does not support the conclusion you've made from snippet.

From Singapore MOH:

As of 5 August 2021, 67% of the population have completed their full vaccination regimen under the national vaccination programme and 78% have received at least one dose. Vaccination reduces the risk of infection and serious disease when infected with COVID-19. Over the last 28 days, among the 80 local cases infected with COVID-19 who are seriously ill [1], 72 are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated, while only 8 are fully vaccinated. A highly vaccinated resident population is crucial to our safe reopening and transition towards an endemic COVID-19 world.

Graphic from Singapore MoH: https://www.moh.gov.sg/#daily-graphs

Technofreak

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#2758513 11-Aug-2021 11:31

Ge0rge:

Technofreak:

What do you mean by operational capacity? How come we have so many empty rooms?

There are x number of rooms in total available for MIQ across the country. There are y number of rooms that make up the "operational capacity" - the rooms that are allocated in MIAS. Y is less than x to allow for contingencies / emergencies - a hotel burns down and occupants need to be moved, a travel bubble collapses and people need to be repatriated via MIQ, etc.

Current usage of y is over 100%. X is only a little larger than y.

If we use 100% of x, there is no contingency, hence "operational capacity" vs "total capacity". Some facilities are also designated for positive cases only, so they are - touch wood - very rarely running close to full.

I have heard that there is regularly 2000 empty rooms. Since these empty rooms were visible on the MBIE website up till the end of July I presume they are part of the 4000 or so rooms for operational capacity. If this is for the contingency you mention it seems a rather high number of rooms to cover those eventualities don't you think?

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Fred99

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#2758517 11-Aug-2021 11:31

Technofreak:

If you read that link it tells you they now no longer show how many empty rooms they have. This change happened at the end of July and is exactly what I said.

They've explained why there are empty rooms and have also explained the reason:

The new variants of the virus, and continued outbreaks overseas, have meant we’ve had to adjust our approach over time.

In order to significantly reduce the number of infected people flying to New Zealand, at the end of April the Government introduced a new ‘very high risk country’ category. Cohorting was also introduced at the same time, based on public health advice.

And I'm damned glad they have. YMMV.

Technofreak

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#2758518 11-Aug-2021 11:37

Fred99:

Technofreak:

If you read that link it tells you they now no longer show how many empty rooms they have. This change happened at the end of July and is exactly what I said.

They've explained why there are empty rooms and have also explained the reason:

Don't you agree a less dysfunctional MIQ booking system would allow them to make better use of the capacity that they have? That way they could have cohorts that use more of the hotel capacity.

P.S. Why the need to hide the empty rooms? Instead just say why they're empty.

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Fred99

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#2758522 11-Aug-2021 11:39

DS248:

One outcome of these data (Israel & Singapore) is that no reliance should be placed on the current vaccine to limit the risk of border and frontline staff being infected. Yes, should reduce the risk of the staff becoming severely ill but full non-pharm measures are still critical if we want to minimise the risk of Delta breaching our border.

I agree. Even before Delta arrived that (bolded) was never going to work.

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