2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2770157 1-Sep-2021 18:28

clinty:

Fred99:

...

Not to my (admittedly colour-blind) eyes they aren't. The dashed blue line is the production plan.

The projected cumulative stock received certainly seems to show an extra ~ million doses arriving this week.

Yeah, blowing up the graph i think you are right - really bad choice of colours - MoH really need to work on their graphs. Also makes sense the volumes agreed would be more linear in growth

Downloaded the excel spreadsheet, but there is nothing in there for anything beyond 31st, so no help there

Hipkins has basically admitted today that they are close to sourcing extra vaccines

(from todays transcript)

Hon Chris Hipkins: Look, we are—I think it’s been well signalled—looking at seeing
whether there are things that we can do to increase the supply over the next few weeks
until we get the very large deliveries that we’re expecting in October.

If we’re in a position to—well, we will be in a position to provide greater clarity on that
before the end of the week, and we will certainly do that as soon as we’re in a position to do
that

...

The data are in the spreadsheet https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/covid_vaccinations_31_08_2021_1.xlsx

On the 'Cumulative' sheet, column D shows "Cumulative stock received". That shows:

For 29 Aug = 3,279,510 doses "received"
For 5 Sept = 4,307,940 doses "received"

Not certain how they have "received" stock on 5 Sept, but it clearly shows a jumped of (just over) 1m in stock 'received'.

*at least those are the figures in the version I downloaded at 2:18 pm this afternoon

UncleArk

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#2770158 1-Sep-2021 18:30

A previous commenter posted: Just remember adults do not need to take panadol or nurofen pre or post jab as this will lose the efficacy of the bodies reaction and acceptance of the vaccine. We want the anti-inflammatory response.

Another poster asked : Can you cite anything to back this up please?

A further poster said: There have been many official sources site the fact you shouldn't take ibruprofen due a belief it might impact the immune response. Panadol however is not a NSAID (and doesn't reduce inflammation) so doesn't react the same way.

My comments to these posts are…

Had my second shot Saturday last weekend (Maui Clinic in Hornby Hub, ChCh just for reference). My wife had her second shot the night before, Friday of last weekend (Orchard Road, ChCh Airport Campus). On both occasions at separate places the nurse / health professional dispensed advice specifically stating Panadol is fine but not to have Neurofen or anything containing ibuprofen. It was explained very specifically and carefully with confirmation that we understood this… with a further explanation that the careful “warning” was being given because there was no handout given in L4 lockdown.
While I don’t have any web links to provide, my anecdotal experience with two separate recent jabs may be of value to the conversation.

My only negative observation was that at the Maui Clinic they weren’t writing up the small vaccination record card and were instructing people to make a follow up doctors appointment in the next few weeks and they would have the details to fill it in… OR you were fine to have the nurse / health professional who jabbed you read out the batch number and you could fill in the details yourself… with a pen… that they handed to you… and took back off you, placing on the desk giving the impression it hadn’t been wiped down before and probably wasn’t going to be afterwards either… so much for the “no contact” reason for not filling in the card…

P.S. sorry about the lack of quoting… try as I might I couldn’t figure out how to reply without ending up at an error telling me too many quotes or no endings to starts… so I did it old school like we did it in the mid 80’s on the BBS’s…

Fred99

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#2770212 1-Sep-2021 18:47

Daynger:

I would say the current crop of vaccines is more of a stop gap until something that actually eradicates it is developed, whether that is another modified vaccine or an anti viral or some other from of something remains to be seen.

While nothing is impossible, something that eradicates it is just so highly unlikely that it may as well be impossible.

The efficacy drop for delta is somewhat overstated - relative to other vaccines, and a multi-shot / spaced vaccine regimen is common for other diseases.

Just a note about evolution of future resistant "escape variant" strains - and a common (mis)perception that lowered vaccine efficacy is a driver for selective mutation of escape variants:

It's probably not true. There's reasonable consensus that the reverse applies, a mutation evading our immune response would give the virus an advantage, but as the immune response from vaccination stimulates our bodies to fight the virus as if we'd been infected, then if all things were equal there's just as much chance of a new escape variant arising from unvaccinated cases as vaccinated cases.

But things are not equal, because if you're not vaccinated you're going to be much more likely to be infected, then when you are infected you're likely to have a far higher viral load and be sick for longer (more viral replication = more random mutations = more chance of a variant with a selective advantage), and if you get so very sick you're hospitalised and kept alive for many weeks when otherwise you'd have died, then the virus is still replicating in someone with a poor immune response for weeks, when in almost all cases in vaccinated people, they recover very quickly.

"But some vaccinated people carry a high viral load". Kind of true, but that's an exception. With unvaccinated it's the rule.

TLDR. Get vaxxed. ASAP.

clinty

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#2770215 1-Sep-2021 19:09

DS248:

The data are in the spreadsheet https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/covid_vaccinations_31_08_2021_1.xlsx

On the 'Cumulative' sheet, column D shows "Cumulative stock received". That shows:

For 29 Aug = 3,279,510 doses "received"
For 5 Sept = 4,307,940 doses "received"
Not certain how they have "received" stock on 5 Sept, but it clearly shows a jumped of (just over) 1m in stock 'received'.

*at least those are the figures in the version I downloaded at 2:18 pm this afternoon

yeah - wonder if it was a placeholder or someone accidentally cut and paste into the wrong spreadsheet?

Guess we find out in the next day or two ( or next week when it is updated again)

Clint

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#2770217 1-Sep-2021 19:17

Fred99:

While nothing is impossible, something that eradicates it is just so highly unlikely that it may as well be impossible.

The efficacy drop for delta is somewhat overstated - relative to other vaccines, and a multi-shot / spaced vaccine regimen is common for other diseases.

Just a note about evolution of future resistant "escape variant" strains - and a common (mis)perception that lowered vaccine efficacy is a driver for selective mutation of escape variants:

It's probably not true. There's reasonable consensus that the reverse applies, a mutation evading our immune response would give the virus an advantage, but as the immune response from vaccination stimulates our bodies to fight the virus as if we'd been infected, then if all things were equal there's just as much chance of a new escape variant arising from unvaccinated cases as vaccinated cases.

But things are not equal, because if you're not vaccinated you're going to be much more likely to be infected, then when you are infected you're likely to have a far higher viral load and be sick for longer (more viral replication = more random mutations = more chance of a variant with a selective advantage), and if you get so very sick you're hospitalised and kept alive for many weeks when otherwise you'd have died, then the virus is still replicating in someone with a poor immune response for weeks, when in almost all cases in vaccinated people, they recover very quickly.

"But some vaccinated people carry a high viral load". Kind of true, but that's an exception. With unvaccinated it's the rule.

TLDR. Get vaxxed. ASAP.

Im not an expert by ANY stretch, but I read something the other day that said that viruses are unstable. The DNA structure (or RNA) is unstable, so it frequently mutates due to this weakness, but off course, the best mutations are like Darwin's survival of the fittest. Most mutations end up rubbish but some end up good, so its like a very fast evolution. The good ones hang around, but unfortunately a virus generation is very short compared to most species.

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#2770233 1-Sep-2021 20:18

Re vaccine delivery speeadsheet.

That data seems pritty clear.

1,028,430 doses received in week ended 05/09/2021, and 460,980 in the prior week.

I would pick this is accurate, rather than an error.

I'm surprised that the government didn't draw attention to it. Having an extra 1m doses in the freezers, on top of the cira 200k we had on the 29th aug (plus what is in vaccine center fridges) is a great position to be in...

Hopefully we get 1m dose weekly shipments for a few weeks running, and the government is just wary of over-promising, but they will be able to over deliver.

Of course there is a risk that pfizer just set 3 weeks of shipments at once, and we won't get more for the next 3 weeks. Still would be in line with 360k per week. And great for NZ if we can keep going at 90k a day given the current outbreak...

Talk at today press conference made it sound like a deal to "borrow" or similar some more vaccines was in the late stages. You don't put the idea of getting more into the public domain unless there is a decent chance of success.... I was thinking some locations with poor vaccine uptake, might be willing to swap their short expiry pfizer does for some fresh ones that we could deliver in a couple of months... A few US states have thrown away a lot of expired covid-19 vaccine which is pritty sad given the global situation.

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#2770234 1-Sep-2021 20:18

UncleArk:

...On both occasions at separate places the nurse / health professional dispensed advice specifically stating Panadol is fine but not to have Neurofen or anything containing ibuprofen…

Paracetamol seems to be used as a placebo for the most part anyway.

Batman

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#2770238 1-Sep-2021 20:33

AKL calling for ICU nurses.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-auckland-hospitals-calling-for-more-icu-nurses/UGLIHB2SWH36WCKGYQ4UQWELDM/

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#2770308 2-Sep-2021 07:10

"The NSW Premier has made a bold promise about the freedoms residents could be enjoying once the 70 per cent vaccination target is met."

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/everything-gladys-berejiklian-makes-reopening-vow-once-70-per-cent-vaccine-target-met/news-story/e8c3631cce06e01e065a59974451e7f5

currentlly sitting at 58.6% https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19#vaccination-totals-to-date

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#2770309 2-Sep-2021 07:24

Batman:

"The NSW Premier has made a bold promise about the freedoms residents could be enjoying once the 70 per cent vaccination target is met."

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/everything-gladys-berejiklian-makes-reopening-vow-once-70-per-cent-vaccine-target-met/news-story/e8c3631cce06e01e065a59974451e7f5

currentlly sitting at 58.6% https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/find-the-facts-about-covid-19#vaccination-totals-to-date

Nice. I hope her plans include an extra lane on routes to hospitals

70% is probably bit of a stretch, but I guess that depends on how she measures that, OTOH if two jabs mean you can have a stubby at a pub, jabs may hoover up more of the naysayers

I wonder when she will stop counting/tracing cases, I imagine when they reach 70%?

For NZ, it will be an experiment we can watch from afar, but it seems a pity that we will have to watch a game play out thats based on beers and Rugby League versus hospitals.

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#2770311 2-Sep-2021 07:37

Official advice - I was asked to take a photo of this at my vaccine last week by the nurse.

Specifically it mentions taking Ibuprofen…..

I’m not a doctor so, I can’t comment, but if you shouldn’t indeed take ibuprofen then the official advice is incorrect.

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#2770328 2-Sep-2021 07:46

Looks like anybody could fly out of Auckland during L4 (and we know people were) because Avsec were in charge of enforcing the rules but weren't actually checking if people were eligible to fly until Tuesday morning!

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#2770333 2-Sep-2021 08:07

sbiddle:

Looks like anybody could fly out of Auckland during L4 (and we know people were) because Avsec were in charge of enforcing the rules but weren't actually checking if people were eligible to fly until Tuesday morning!

They had one job.... so infuriating!!

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#2770342 2-Sep-2021 08:36

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/should-you-take-pain-relievers-after-covid-19-vaccine#Little-data-on-pain-relievers-and-COVID-19-vaccine

basically there havent been clinical trials to say ibuprofen does anything to stop the effect of covid vaccines.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2770360 2-Sep-2021 09:03

sbiddle:

Looks like anybody could fly out of Auckland during L4 (and we know people were) because Avsec were in charge of enforcing the rules but weren't actually checking if people were eligible to fly until Tuesday morning!

i'm not surprised. i didn't expect anything more. this is new zealand.

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