2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2775720 9-Sep-2021 22:27

mattwnz:

The only reason we have had this lockdown is because it leaked through MIQ.

Where is your evidence on this point?

If there is none take it somewhere else

Handle9

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#2775721 9-Sep-2021 22:27

mattwnz:

Oblivian:

No so many changes on the guideline pages today. Few cosmetic hyphens removed. And some stray bus use bits removed.

Entirely new Skiing under level 2 section added however.

How do people get the guildelines on the page changed? It almost seems like it is all being done on the fly, and someone goes, hey how about skiing, or golf or whitebaiting / fishing, and things get changed.

Of course it gets changed on the fly. There are a finite number of resources.

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#2775723 9-Sep-2021 22:30

Jase2985:

mattwnz:

The only reason we have had this lockdown is because it leaked through MIQ.

Where is your evidence on this point?

If there is none take it somewhere else

The balance of probabilities says this is both true and inevitable. Things go wrong when thousands of people are involved.

I do agree with the spirit of your statement that (I assume) there is very little point raving on about it.

Jase2985

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#2775725 9-Sep-2021 22:43

Other people are quick to post comment on statements made with out any evidence to back it up or from an unreputable source why should this be any different?

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#2775727 9-Sep-2021 22:53

mattwnz:

How do people get the guildelines on the page changed? It almost seems like it is all being done on the fly, and someone goes, hey how about skiing, or golf or whitebaiting / fishing, and things get changed.

Presumably it is exactly what happens. Cause enough stir and complaints to MBIE and the police or media pick up and it gets changed to clear things up. Whitebaiting was answered many different ways at media standup before it was clarified in print.

Previously, there was a large surge for MBIE and individual requests from businesses handled - you needed to apply and be checked off as 'essential. Now, it's in their own hands. We trust you, Until you are caught out.

Same goes for the guides. Blanket, and if it's not clear enough because EVERYONE is trying to get around them (lets admit, everyone will be looking after their own freedom and pockets first over taking the most laid back unconcerned approach) and causing a stir. Clear it up more.

Fred99

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#2775729 9-Sep-2021 23:03

clinty: New case at Middlemore ED

Self discharged, but isolating
Staff had PPE and inpatients are isolating

A person who presented to Middlemore Hospital’s Emergency Department on Thursday has tested positive for Covid-19.

The patient came to hospital with a non-Covid issue and did not have symptoms, but was tested.

They left the hospital before receiving their result, but are now isolating, the Ministry of Health said in a statement on Thursday night.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126339918/covid19-patient-at-middlemore-emergency-department-tests-positive

Clint

They said they had not been in contact with anyone with the virus, and had not visited any locations of interest.

If that turns out to be correct, then it's indicating very bad news.

mattwnz

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#2775733 10-Sep-2021 01:07

Jase2985:

mattwnz:

The only reason we have had this lockdown is because it leaked through MIQ.

Where is your evidence on this point?

If there is none take it somewhere else

Because they have already said this near the start of the outbreak, based on their genome testing which linked it directly back to a case in MIQ. How is the only question. This is why the media aren't still asking where it came from.

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clinty

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#2775744 10-Sep-2021 05:26

Fred99:

They said they had not been in contact with anyone with the virus, and had not visited any locations of interest.

If that turns out to be correct, then it's indicating very bad news.

Possibly a false positive - we have had 1 already this outbreak.

Or an LoI that the patient wasn't aware of.

Clint

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#2775745 10-Sep-2021 06:06

Cuba says develops own vaccine, jabbing 2 yrs and up

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/09/americas/cuba-vaccination-children-covid-19-intl-latam/index.html

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#2775748 10-Sep-2021 06:40

An FYI post

https://theconversation.com/why-are-some-covid-test-results-false-positives-and-how-common-are-they-162163

tdgeek

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#2775749 10-Sep-2021 06:43

mattwnz:

Because they have already said this near the start of the outbreak, based on their genome testing which linked it directly back to a case in MIQ. How is the only question. This is why the media aren't still asking where it came from.

How? When you have 160,000 going through MIQ it can happen.

1. Ban all returning Kiwis

2. Imprison them for 14 days

3. Do what's morally and legally right and mitigate it as much as you can

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#2775762 10-Sep-2021 07:56

Fred99:

New case at Middlemore ED

They said they had not been in contact with anyone with the virus, and had not visited any locations of interest.

If true it'd be bad news, but IMO it's equally likely that either they were careless / forgetful in answering about being at an an LOI (it's a l-o-n-g list now), or they lied about it hoping to avoid an up-your-nose swab test

There's lots of worry about vaccine hesitancy, but a recent survey said half the population wouldn't take a swab test even if they had flu-like symptoms. Swab test hesitancy is a much bigger issue right now

Fred99

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#2775771 10-Sep-2021 08:21

From the NYT. 10 most vaccinated states have about 75% of over 18YO fully vaccinated. 10 least vaccinated is at about 50%.

frankv

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#2775774 10-Sep-2021 08:29

Technofreak:

I think in reality we would never need close to 6800 beds and all the attendant support that goes with that.

[Edited to put in actual numbers]

Let's look at NSW: 1,400+ new cases per day, 1,136 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, 194 people in intensive care, 78 of whom require ventilation. https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210908_00.aspx

If we were the same per capita, it would be 875 new cases per day. If 10% need hospitalisation, that's 88 new admissions per day. There are various numbers for average covid hospital stay, but I'll arbitrarily use https://academic.oup.com/intqhc/article/33/1/mzab050/6178233 which says 10.7 days for survivors, 13.7 for non-survivors. For simplicity, round down to 10 and assume the non-survivors spend the last 3 days in ICU, so they also take 10 bed-nights in the ordinary ward. So, once the disease was fully established, NZ would need 880 hospital beds for covid.

So on current figures you're right, we wouldn't need anywhere near 6,800. But NSW hasn't peaked yet, and they have lockdown and travel restrictions.

Interestingly, their ICU rate is 17% rather than the 5% I'd assumed. So we would need a lot more ICU beds, but perhaps less hospital beds.

Fred99

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#2775775 10-Sep-2021 08:29

PolicyGuy:

Fred99:

New case at Middlemore ED

They said they had not been in contact with anyone with the virus, and had not visited any locations of interest.

If true it'd be bad news, but IMO it's equally likely that either they were careless / forgetful in answering about being at an an LOI (it's a l-o-n-g list now), or they lied about it hoping to avoid an up-your-nose swab test

There's lots of worry about vaccine hesitancy, but a recent survey said half the population wouldn't take a swab test even if they had flu-like symptoms. Swab test hesitancy is a much bigger issue right now

Yeah that's what I said. Auckland's at level 4. Every place she visited should be recorded, and unless an essential worker, then she should have had no contact outside her bubble. So was this claim that she'd had no contact just from a preliminary screening at ED/admissions, or through contact tracing?

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