2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2802074 27-Oct-2021 16:07

mattwnz:

The thing is that we are not going to really know how many infections there are, because many people who are vaccinated may get infected but not have symptoms (or very minor), and infect others, including those unvaccinated, and that could occur in supermarkets. .

We've got that now,

There will always be undetected mild (or even asymptomatic) cases once you have community spread and we've had picnic bubbles and ECE for over 3 weeks...

The assumption with modelling is that if you are doing enough testing your cases numbers are a representative sample, (they don't have to be all the cases) - but they are representative enough to give you an insight into what spread is happening...

its just like political polling..

They don't ask the same people their opinion every 6 weeks... but it still gives you a general view of the trends with overall views...

Handle9

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#2802080 27-Oct-2021 16:22

wellygary:
cokemaster: [sarcasm]They’ll probably take it slow until there is another outbreak, no need to rush to vaccinate children when covid isn’t in our communities[/sarcasm]

What, So Auckland will get some, but the rest of us have to wait :)

FWIW some models are showing we might be close (within a week or two) of peaking daily cases in Auckland,

As the 2nd dose rollout gathers pace the R value will continue to get squeezed...

Which models are showing this?

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#2802084 27-Oct-2021 16:29

cokemaster: If these folks are indeed linked with the sovereign citizen movement, they won’t care what other folks think about them.

So far they’ve ticked the common law and sovereign boxes… I’m half expecting them to start quoting old versions of Blacks law dictionary (in particular: the definition of drivers).

They ought to have learned the old aphorism "It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than it is to open your mouth and prove it."

PolicyGuy

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#2802097 27-Oct-2021 16:48

Graph from: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/27-10-2021/live-updates-october-27-50-vehicle-hikoi-of-anti-vaxxers-stopped-at-auckland-border/

Of the 2832 cases in the Delta outbreak to date:

1443 were unvaccinated - that's 51%
136 were completely vaccinated - that's 5%

Of the 224 who have been admitted to hospital:

168 were unvaccinated - that's 75%
3 were completely vaccinated - that's 1%

So the crude analysis is that the unvaccinated are ten times as likely to get Covid as the completely vaccinated, and seventy-five times more likely to have to be hospitalised

wellygary

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#2802098 27-Oct-2021 16:51

Handle9:

Which models are showing this?

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html

https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2021/10/27/modelling-the-august-2021-covid-19-outbreak/

Scott3

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#2802122 27-Oct-2021 17:31

wellygary:

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html

I like the modeling this person has been doing, but the assumptions around vaccination rates need some revision given we are current running at about half the projected rate.

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#2802175 27-Oct-2021 17:36

PolicyGuy:

Graph from: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/27-10-2021/live-updates-october-27-50-vehicle-hikoi-of-anti-vaxxers-stopped-at-auckland-border/

Of the 2832 cases in the Delta outbreak to date:

1443 were unvaccinated - that's 51%
136 were completely vaccinated - that's 5%

Of the 224 who have been admitted to hospital:

168 were unvaccinated - that's 75%
3 were completely vaccinated - that's 1%

So the crude analysis is that the unvaccinated are ten times as likely to get Covid as the completely vaccinated, and seventy-five times more likely to have to be hospitalised

I think to make sense of that piece of statistic we need to know the vaccination rate of Auckland in particular South Auckland when this outbreak started. I mean if hypothetically if you have a vaccination rate of 5% and 5% of cases were vaccinated ... you get the drift.

Once the country is vaccinated to its max of 90%, if we start collecting stats from that point forward it would me easier to interpret. But real world is not like that, we have the data and the data is what it is.

Handle9

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#2802176 27-Oct-2021 17:39

Scott3:
wellygary:

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html

I like the modeling this person has been doing, but the assumptions around vaccination rates need some revision given we are current running at about half the projected rate.

It’s also a straight mathematical model with no social factors like labour weekend built in.

It’s extremely unlikely Auckland is anywhere near it's peak under current restrictions.

tdgeek

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#2802227 27-Oct-2021 19:39

mattwnz:

But aren't these 'cases peaking ' currently artificially low due to the lockdown? Once schools open and restrictions reduce, then it is going to significantly increase the number of paths for infection to occur. The thing is that we are not going to really know how many infections there are, because many people who are vaccinated may get infected but not have symptoms (or very minor), and infect others, including those unvaccinated, and that could occur in supermarkets. .

Yes, that may be right, but if its right all along, the trend is still down. And the longer this drags out, the less population is unvaccinated.

Its become a farce as lockdown failed due to flouters, vaccination is falling due to idiots, but at the end of the day, unvaccinated are decreasing and vaccinated are increasing, so the virus is slowly being strangled. Cases will continue though as the unvaccinated feed it.

tdgeek

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#2802230 27-Oct-2021 19:42

PolicyGuy:

Graph from: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/27-10-2021/live-updates-october-27-50-vehicle-hikoi-of-anti-vaxxers-stopped-at-auckland-border/

Of the 2832 cases in the Delta outbreak to date:

1443 were unvaccinated - that's 51%
136 were completely vaccinated - that's 5%

Of the 224 who have been admitted to hospital:

168 were unvaccinated - that's 75%
3 were completely vaccinated - that's 1%

So the crude analysis is that the unvaccinated are ten times as likely to get Covid as the completely vaccinated, and seventy-five times more likely to have to be hospitalised

As seems to have happened most places, its not a pandemic, its an epidemic of the unvaccinated. If the demographic is "generally" 18 to 30's, they can nt get that sick and they can recover at home.

tdgeek

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#2802242 27-Oct-2021 20:00

My suburb in ChCh is 92% and 76%

Keep moving

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#2802354 28-Oct-2021 06:28

Some people without photo id have difficulty getting vaccine certificates

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126801452/covid19-worries-vaccine-certificates-wont-be-attainable-for-all-vaccinated-kiwis

DjShadow

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#2802355 28-Oct-2021 06:35

2 Cases confirmed in Christchurch

clinty

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#2802356 28-Oct-2021 06:38

DjShadow:
2 Cases confirmed in Christchurch

Two COVID-19 cases notified in Christchurch last evening
The Ministry of Health was notified last evening of two positive COVID-19 cases in Christchurch from the same household. One member of the household had recently returned to Christchurch from Auckland.

The local public health unit is gathering information from the cases to identify close contacts and exposure events, including any locations of interest. The Ministry will undertake a public health risk assessment of the situation this morning and a further update will be provided after that.

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#2802357 28-Oct-2021 06:58

tdgeek:
My suburb in ChCh is 92% and 76%

Keep moving

Your timing is apt! https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-delta-outbreak-two-cases-in-christchurch-including-recent-traveller-from-auckland/CVQ4T7QK2TCXCOLSAVG5CYE3TU/

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