2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2805383 1-Nov-2021 14:01

I suspect Auckland won’t get the rose in this afternoons screening.
Current bet from me is: no change to alert levels or “steps”.

Suspect we’ll only see deescalation of alert levels at end of November or failing that, mid December.
Part of me suspects Auckland might be locked down longer but I suspect that will be political suicide and thus, Auckland gets freedoms at the expense of public health.

Keen to get others thoughts on how it’s going to play out.

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#2805385 1-Nov-2021 14:06

cokemaster: I suspect Auckland won’t get the rose in this afternoons screening.
Current bet from me is: no change to alert levels or “steps”.

Suspect we’ll only see deescalation of alert levels at end of November or failing that, mid December.
Part of me suspects Auckland might be locked down longer but I suspect that will be political suicide and thus, Auckland gets freedoms at the expense of public health.

Keen to get others thoughts on how it’s going to play out.

Only 7.47K tests. I actually have no idea how this is going to play out.

Part of me thinks the situation is broken beyond repair and if you aren't going to L4 then you might as well L2.

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#2805386 1-Nov-2021 14:12

GV27: …
Part of me thinks the situation is broken beyond repair and if you aren't going to L4 then you might as well L2.

Agreed. Those pathways or waiting till Covid has burnt through the remainder of the Auckland population seem to be the only logical paths.

Each one of them has significant political consequences so that will be interesting to watch.

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Reanalyse

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#2805390 1-Nov-2021 14:23

cokemaster: I suspect Auckland won’t get the rose in this afternoons screening.
Current bet from me is: no change to alert levels or “steps”.

Suspect we’ll only see deescalation of alert levels at end of November or failing that, mid December.
Part of me suspects Auckland might be locked down longer but I suspect that will be political suicide and thus, Auckland gets freedoms at the expense of public health.

Keen to get others thoughts on how it’s going to play out.

Suspect another "kick for touch", staying in current L3 for another week. But as an Aucklander can see the pressure building in my own family and the neighbours, as all sick of keeping to the restrictions.

Level 4 will not happen, and much more dragging on of the current Level 3 restrictions (beyond another week) may be political suicide.

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#2805393 1-Nov-2021 14:31

Reanalyse:

and much more dragging on of the current Level 3 restrictions (beyond another week) may be political suicide.

What is your solution?

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#2805398 1-Nov-2021 14:36

MileHighKiwi:

Given the demographic they're targeting it would be a better ROI to simply pay them good money to get jabbed imo.

Any sort of cash reward to people who were slow to do what they should have done would not only be political suicide but almost certainly spawn racial hatred considering the statistics. Really bad idea.

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#2805399 1-Nov-2021 14:36

Technofreak:

trig42:

Yep, it's the dithering that is annoying me.

The Government is dithering - where are the vaccine passports (they've had 18 months)? I'm sure we'll get nothing out of them today other than more nice words and imploring the people who never watch any TV to get their vaccination (they've reached all the people who listen, they've got to get to the ones that are disconnected from MSM).

The vax hesitant are dithering - 'I'll get the vaccine, but there's no hurry' - yes there is, 1.6m Aucklanders (1.598m of them who haven't even been in touch with Covid) are going a little stir crzy, and would quite like to be able to visit their loved ones etc.

What are they doing about getting through to these people?

Einstein's definition of insanity comes to mind. “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."

They need to change their approach. Get out in the community and directly target those that haven't been vaccinated. Knock on doors, go to work places, set up shop outside supermarkets or other places where pretty well everyone goes on a regular basis.

Maori health providers have been asking for access to the vaccination records, so they can do the knocking on doors.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126703647/john-tamihere-v-ministry-of-health-vaccination-fight-goes-to-high-court

There appears to have been a follow up in court, but I'm not sure of the final outcome.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018817812/covid-19-vaccination-data-access-heads-to-high-court

Meanwhile the ant-vaxxers are attacking a vaccination clinic of the Pasefika Family Health Group in Panmure.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/454606/vaccination-centre-vandalised-staff-threatened

Following the vaccination clinic vandalism, Auckland councillor Josephine Bartley is now getting on-line abuse and threats from COVID-19 anti-vaxxers
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/11/community-rallies-around-auckland-councillor-josephine-bartley-after-abuse-by-covid-19-anti-vaxxers.html

Does anyone seriously think the anti-vaxx protests are about "freedom".

#include <standard.disclaimer>

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#2805401 1-Nov-2021 14:39

Reanalyse:

Suspect another "kick for touch", staying in current L3 for another week. But as an Aucklander can see the pressure building in my own family and the neighbours, as all sick of keeping to the restrictions.

Level 4 will not happen, and much more dragging on of the current Level 3 restrictions (beyond another week) may be political suicide.

Auckland and Waikato will stay put,

At 4pm the PM will wheel out some charts that will show they are hoping the outbreak will peak in two weeks, and then she will say once this happens they will look at moving to Step 2... I.e socially distanced retail and libraries etc,

But until then there will be pleas to "hold the course" and "get your friends vaccinated"

So in reality its an announcement of another announcement soon

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#2805402 1-Nov-2021 14:40

Was over 11,000 first doses to 90% last week, its now 4000+ first dose to 90% for counties manukau as of yesterday. Keep it up those bringing the vaccine to the people

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#2805404 1-Nov-2021 14:47

In Christchurch two waste water test sites delta detected. One in eastern part of city other southern. They are aware of an active case in one area, but not the other.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300441815/covid19-live-162-new-community-cases-delta-at-two-christchurch-wastewater-sites

GV27

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#2805407 1-Nov-2021 14:51

wellygary:

Auckland and Waikato will stay put,

At 4pm the PM will wheel out some charts that will show they are hoping the outbreak will peak in two weeks, and then she will say once this happens they will look at moving to Step 2... I.e socially distanced retail and libraries etc,

But until then there will be pleas to "hold the course" and "get your friends vaccinated"

So in reality its an announcement of another announcement soon

I suspect you are correct. Can't see more charts winning any friends in Auckland though, and I suspect that people will say that if the peak is in two weeks, why not just bring it forward and use it to spike vaccine interest now rather than waiting around.

(I know there's reasons for this but it's what people would ask).

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#2805411 1-Nov-2021 14:54

It's like my earlier quip about groups preferring unknown suppliments over known medicine earlier that was taken offence too was foresight-

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2021/11/safety-fears-as-supplement-sales-soar-along-with-covid-19-delta-cases.html

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#2805413 1-Nov-2021 14:56

rugrat:

In Christchurch two waste water test sites delta detected. One in eastern part of city other southern. They are aware of an active case in one area, but not the other.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300441815/covid19-live-162-new-community-cases-delta-at-two-christchurch-wastewater-sites

Did they ever locate who infected the Tongan case?

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#2805415 1-Nov-2021 14:57

With people like this farkwit there is not much hope, regardless of what you and me, or the government does:

A Te Awamutu local went out visiting after receiving a phone call telling them they had tested positive for Covid, the Waikato DHB has confirmed.

The DHB became aware that the positive case had left their home and they were subsequently tracked down several hours at another house.

The Waikato DHB is now supporting the people at that second household visited just over a week ago, while the visitor was potentially infectious.

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Reanalyse

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#2805417 1-Nov-2021 14:59

tdgeek:

Reanalyse:

and much more dragging on of the current Level 3 restrictions (beyond another week) may be political suicide.

What is your solution?

In Auckland:

Level 3 Stage 2 for the vaccinated - get an interim letter out automatically to all who are double vaccinated while waiting for the "proper system"

Current Level 3 for the unvaccinated, but make a major push to reach the marginalised

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