2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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202 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 156

#2807994 5-Nov-2021 12:55

sbiddle:

I see the winner of the 2021 biggest doom merchant award Shaun Hendy says we'll likely spend most of 2022 in the traffic light system in the red colour..

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018819277/covid-19-nz-could-spend-most-of-2022-at-traffic-light-red-level-hendy

2022 is going to be tough for many people in this new normal world but god he's such a negative person. He's hardly inspiring people.

Well to be realistic has any country managed to get on top of Covid long term?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/454996/surge-in-europe-covid-19-cases-a-warning-shot-for-world-who

The big Denmark opening hasn't gone the best, almost back to 2000 cases a day.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa41b29149f24e20a4007a0c4e13db1d

GV27

5977 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4212

#2807995 5-Nov-2021 13:04

Another low day for 1st vaccinations....

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
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#2807998 5-Nov-2021 13:10

FineWine:

Luckily the Bay of Plenty can be fairly well ring fenced with only 5 major routes in & out.

Hwy 2 from the north through to Opotiki where it turns south at the junction of Hwy 35 from around the East Cape headland there.

Hwy 29 over the Kaimai's

Hwy's 33 & 36 coming up from Rotorua

So far we have been lucky with only one case at Katikati in October. Our vaccine rates are 84% & 70% which are not crash hot.

So I would rather go Orange or even Green with Hard Regional boundary restrictions on those 5 entry points. No Jab not entry.

Would be gutting for us if that happens. - Have family in Tauranga desperate to see their granddaughter who is in Auckland.

Personally Think it is very unlikely.

BOP has higher vacination rates than Lakes DHB & Tairawhiti DHB - hard to make a case to close BOP off without capturing those DHB's also.
Northland & Whanganui are also worse than BOP, and Taranaki is just a tiny bit better. Kinda hard to jusify closing of the BOP without doing those as well.
Doing all the above would cut the north island up into stripes, and be unrealistic in terms of policing resources.

With regards to my comments, I now think regions would be unrealistic, but we could look to protect places like Murapara (47.1% eligible first dose). - But too many roads to realistically do that.

KellyP

1250 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 115

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#2808002 5-Nov-2021 13:22

There are 163 new community cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand today, including four in Waikato.
102 of today’s 163 new Covid-19 cases are yet to be linked.

1 new death under investigation.

Oblivian

7345 posts

Uber Geek
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#2808009 5-Nov-2021 13:39

Still breaking records for the wrong reasons.

So our previous high case numbers early on in the stage. Were attributed to high density emergency housing. We went along with it - that sounded bad. But semi-expected if they were mixing often and using shared spaces.

Did you happen to notice where the self isolating death was the other day - Emergency housing complex. Suddenly all those involved were concerned they were not advised he was in the building. And suddenly felt unsafe.

GV27

5977 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4212

#2808016 5-Nov-2021 13:47

Counties now projected by Stuff to come in under the 90% rate at 29/11, not getting over the line until early December.

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wellygary

8813 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5297

#2808021 5-Nov-2021 14:00

GV27:

Counties now projected by Stuff to come in under the 90% rate at 29/11, not getting over the line until early December.

And it will drift out even further,

Currently (midnight 4th) Counties need 54,361 2nd doses to hit 90%... yesterday they did 1,664 2nd jabs .

.. but that number keep shrinking, (a week ago daily second doses were 2,654)

wellygary

8813 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5297

#2808023 5-Nov-2021 14:04

James Bond:

There are 163 new community cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand today, including four in Waikato.
102 of today’s 163 new Covid-19 cases are yet to be linked.

1 new death under investigation.

Pretty clear we will likely exceed 200 daily cases over the weekend ...

Cases climb at the end of the week, and todays 163 is ~33% higher than the 125 a week ago,

Last sat was 160... + 33% = 212...

GV27

5977 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4212

#2808024 5-Nov-2021 14:05

So the question then becomes: if it becomes obvious Counties does not hit 90% double-jabbed by the 29th, should the 29th decision for Auckland be bought forward as soon as the other regions hit it?

I would contend it should.

Reanalyse

398 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 311

#2808038 5-Nov-2021 14:25

The poor person who died in Mt Eden was stated to have discharged themselves from hospital a few days before.

I hope this was not a covid denier, but I suppose we will never know. But interesting that fact was highlighed at the 1pm press conference.

mattwnz

20520 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4797

#2808054 5-Nov-2021 14:48

Oblivian:

Still breaking records for the wrong reasons.

So our previous high case numbers early on in the stage. Were attributed to high density emergency housing. We went along with it - that sounded bad. But semi-expected if they were mixing often and using shared spaces.

Did you happen to notice where the self isolating death was the other day - Emergency housing complex. Suddenly all those involved were concerned they were not advised he was in the building. And suddenly felt unsafe.

I wonder how good the air management and filtration is in some of these complexes. That seems to be a significant factor with transmission. I wonder if there is going to be a requirement for buildings to improve them for covid, eg for workplace3 safety etc.. He is an article about how it is needed in NZ schools https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/18-10-2021/auckland-needs-its-schools-to-reopen-heres-what-must-happen-first/

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JPNZ

1715 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 840

#2808064 5-Nov-2021 15:04

Bit of a quiet afternoon at work got me thinking more long term.

So sometime before Xmas we go into a traffic light system, I still can't see any information in that system about flights and travel under each level. I remember reading the "border" in one way or another will be around Auckland under the traffic light system (correct me if I'm wrong). If cases in Auckland are still increasing or steady in the hundreds into early December what government official will possibly let people travel south unless there are procedures and testing in place?

I'm sure every district currently covid free doesn't want people from infected areas coming to holiday regardless of how high vax levels are in their area.

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wellygary

8813 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5297

#2808072 5-Nov-2021 15:12

JPNZ:

If cases in Auckland are still increasing or steady in the hundreds into early December what government official will possibly let people travel south unless there are procedures and testing in place?

I'm sure every district currently covid free doesn't want people from infected areas coming to holiday regardless of how high vax levels are in their area.

Regarding the Border, they are basically hoping that getting Auckland to 90% double vaxxed will bring case numbers down... if they are still going up it will likely involve some sort of rethink...

Minimum will be double vaxx to leave Auckland, but if case numbers remain high, you will likely need a negative test too...

Then if you are driving out gawd knows what sort of hunger games allocation system they will run so there are not clogged motorway checkpoints to leave

trig42

5889 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2094

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#2808073 5-Nov-2021 15:13

JPNZ:

Bit of a quiet afternoon at work got me thinking more long term.

So sometime before Xmas we go into a traffic light system, I still can't see any information in that system about flights and travel under each level. I remember reading the "border" in one way or another will be around Auckland under the traffic light system (correct me if I'm wrong). If cases in Auckland are still increasing or steady in the hundreds into early December what government official will possibly let people travel south unless there are procedures and testing in place?

I'm sure every district currently covid free doesn't want people from infected areas coming to holiday regardless of how high vax levels are in their area.

That's what they're supposedly working through now.

How are Aucklanders going to be able to leave Auckland, given a small (tiny - currently 0.15% of Aucklanders have Covid19) percentage of them will leave with Covid on board?

THe other 99.85% would like to go and see loved ones, and have Christmas. The government is acutely aware of it, and Grant Robertson said today, they are planning for it to happen. How they do that, I don't know. My guess is they will say only vaxxed can leave, and there will be random checks. Maybe tested too, but that seems a bit onerous - I don't know how many Aucklanders leave Auckland for the holidays, but it would be in the high hundreds of thousands - that will overwhelm testing capacity (and cost a fortune). Maybe lateral flow tests?

alexx

867 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 291

#2808090 5-Nov-2021 15:25

On2or3wheels:

sbiddle:

I see the winner of the 2021 biggest doom merchant award Shaun Hendy says we'll likely spend most of 2022 in the traffic light system in the red colour..

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018819277/covid-19-nz-could-spend-most-of-2022-at-traffic-light-red-level-hendy

2022 is going to be tough for many people in this new normal world but god he's such a negative person. He's hardly inspiring people.

Well to be realistic has any country managed to get on top of Covid long term?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/454996/surge-in-europe-covid-19-cases-a-warning-shot-for-world-who

The big Denmark opening hasn't gone the best, almost back to 2000 cases a day.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa41b29149f24e20a4007a0c4e13db1d

Denmark has 76% (total population) fully vaccinated right now, while we are on about 65%. When things are getting worse for countries with 76% fully vaccinated, that isn't great news for us, although heading into summer might help us a little.

For 76% of population fully vaccinated, we need about 90% of eligible people fully vaccinated. Auckland DHB is about 4% short of that number, but we need it across the entire region and then the entire country.

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