2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2809206 8-Nov-2021 10:26

If I was in power, I would secretly be hoping for covid-19 to spread accross the north island over the next 2 - 3 weeks.

That way the Auckland border could come down in early December, without me being blamed for giving 50%+ of the country (by population) Covid for Christmas.

Suggest that is why all the agonising about the border is going on. Saying travel is only for fully vaccianted & tested people makes it a touch more palatable for the rest of the country, avoiding a massive outcry right now.

In a months time the call can be made if they are going to get rid of the border. Potentially they could keep it, but if they did, it would need to pretty much just for show. - Wave through 100 cars, check 1 etc. (But that is not a great look).

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#2809209 8-Nov-2021 10:34

In a positive light, although case numbers are growing, the Trend line has been concave down over the last couple of weeks.

We have growing case numbers, but have broken out of pure experiential growth. And this is despite the relaxing of restrictions over that time.

[edit] this projection dose not consider the effect of vaccination. Reluctant to post the one that does as I feel the projected vaccination rate is unrealistic.

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#2809212 8-Nov-2021 10:41

trig42:

GV27:

sbiddle:

Exactly.. I see two scenarios - either Xmas is cancelled (and the PM has doubled down again this morning saying people will be able to travel) or they simply remove border restrictions a week or so before Xmas.

Agreed. It's either no travel or no border. The fact we are a month and a half from Xmas and we still don't know what the plan is, people can't book flights, etc is going to become a real headache if clarity doesn't come sooner rather than later.

I think this is becoming people's issue with the response.

This government seems to take forever to make a decision. It's not like they haven't had time to discuss and plan for this scenario - they have a plethora of advisers and experts and panels and commitees to help them.

The Vaccine Certificate should be out. Guidelines for businesses on how to use it (and staff for it) should be out. Christmas plans should be out.

I can sort of understand the delays around telling Auckland what they're going to be able to do while they are still trying to mop up some vaccine stragglers (for some, whats the point of hurrying to get the jab if we know what we'll be able to do?)

I've yet to see anything about the vaccine pass except for the fact it's going to be a legal requirement in many places -there has been nothing around guidelines for businesses or how they should implement this.

For many businesses the requirement to have a dedicated staff member to check these passes is going to be significant, and I'm not sure if many have actually thought about this yet. On top of that there are requirements for devices to use - for many a tablet makes a lot more sense than a phone, and I can imagine a sudden rush on cheap tablets in a few weeks and people then missing out when stocks run out!

GV27

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#2809214 8-Nov-2021 10:51

PM on Breakfast:

"The logistical challenge that we have, that you will have heard us be very open about, is that around that Christmas and summer period we can expect top have up to 30 and 40,000 people trying to move around that land boundary and we're working on ways or whether or not indeed it's possible to set up checks that just don't lead to really prolonged delays," Ardern said.

"Or whether or not it is possible" is the key here.

It should be obvious to everyone that this isn't going to be possible at all. But apparently there'll be a decision/announcement by the end of this month.

Luckily for the rest of NZ, most of the places Kiwis who rely on accommodation want to go will have been booked out for months at this point.

GV27

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#2809215 8-Nov-2021 10:54

Also I'm seeing these comments as '40,000 cars' vs '40,000' people and one is infinitely more likely than the other.

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#2809217 8-Nov-2021 11:00

Zeon:

Interesting new perspective.... Was speaking with a friend who is a real estate agent in Auckland on Friday. She is holding out on getting her vaccine until the "incentive" reaches at least $500 worth. Since she doesn't really work from the office so vaccine mandates aren't affecting her. Not sure if its a unique thought pattern but perhaps an unintended consequence of the incentive scheme. The Australian one with a lottery may have been a better approach....

This is the sort of thing I would expect from many RE agents - a self-centred and not very intelligent approach.

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#2809226 8-Nov-2021 11:18

sbiddle: I've yet to see anything about the vaccine pass except for the fact it's going to be a legal requirement in many places -there has been nothing around guidelines for businesses or how they should implement this.

For many businesses the requirement to have a dedicated staff member to check these passes is going to be significant, and I'm not sure if many have actually thought about this yet. On top of that there are requirements for devices to use - for many a tablet makes a lot more sense than a phone, and I can imagine a sudden rush on cheap tablets in a few weeks and people then missing out when stocks run out!

The spec is out https://nzcp.covid19.health.nz/ example code in Python is also out, that works, and verifies legit MoH QRs: https://github.com/gizmoguy/nz-covid-pass-verifier

So if POS developers aren't looking into this NOW and businesses aren't asking their POS suppliers when it will be ready then they should be.

And the App I believe will work on iOS and Android, and for a savvy developer writing one in HTML5 that works on any device with a browser and camera should be do-able.

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#2809233 8-Nov-2021 11:53

BarTender:

sbiddle: I've yet to see anything about the vaccine pass except for the fact it's going to be a legal requirement in many places -there has been nothing around guidelines for businesses or how they should implement this.

For many businesses the requirement to have a dedicated staff member to check these passes is going to be significant, and I'm not sure if many have actually thought about this yet. On top of that there are requirements for devices to use - for many a tablet makes a lot more sense than a phone, and I can imagine a sudden rush on cheap tablets in a few weeks and people then missing out when stocks run out!

The spec is out https://nzcp.covid19.health.nz/ example code in Python is also out, that works, and verifies legit MoH QRs: https://github.com/gizmoguy/nz-covid-pass-verifier

So if POS developers aren't looking into this NOW and businesses aren't asking their POS suppliers when it will be ready then they should be.

And the App I believe will work on iOS and Android, and for a savvy developer writing one in HTML5 that works on any device with a browser and camera should be do-able.

POS integration is a huge step and I'm not sure what real purpose it would serve especially as most POS terminals are fixed anyway and don't have cameras. Certainly in Australia it's just staff standing at the door checking vaccine certificates and I can imagine it will be the same here.

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#2809242 8-Nov-2021 12:14

sbiddle: POS integration is a huge step and I'm not sure what real purpose it would serve especially as most POS terminals are fixed anyway and don't have cameras. Certainly in Australia it's just staff standing at the door checking vaccine certificates and I can imagine it will be the same here.

Presumably most places have someone at reception / managing bookings and presumably that booking system would be online. I agree the most likely situation will be someone at the door with phone running the app and checking photo ID. But the spec has been released publicly so that it can be integrated for that very reason.

SJB

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#2809243 8-Nov-2021 12:16

GV27:

SJB:

Double jabbed plus negative test is the way they will both go IMO.

There's no plausible way for everyone who wants to go away or go on a day trip to get a negative test between Xmas and NY, unless the point is to make it impossible for Aucklanders to leave while still insisting it's possible.

That's before you get into the logistics of a checkpoint to check for one for every single car passenger over the age of what, 12?

I was thinking more in terms of double jabbed/-ve test if you want to travel to SI. Very easy to implement that.

You might as well make NI border free. It's not going to make much difference in the long run and the numbers will just ramp up quicker that's all. They are going to be high in any case.

SJB

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#2809247 8-Nov-2021 12:20

Scott3:

In terms of MIQ, We are a bit of a cross roads, the status quo is hard to justify given the case numbers in Auckland, but what do we do instead:

Self isolation - Public will expect that this is tightly enforced (home detention style ankle bracelets etc.) - not sure we have the resources to do this on a large scale.
Allow isoltation free arrivals (for fully vaccinated NZ citizens / residents, coming from a low to medium risk country, bound for Auckland, and willing to agree to get tested at 12 days, and not leave Auckland until that result is back.) - Need big fines or prision time for breaches to get public acceptance.

Currently we have 2564 active cases, 39 of which is from the border.

I don't think the public care about enforcing self-isolation or they would be up in arms about the 1300 or so who are 'self-isolating' at the moment with no monitoring at all.

If I was a returning traveller I'm not sure I'd be happy to arrive in a covid hot spot like Auckland anyway.

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#2809252 8-Nov-2021 12:29

GV27:

PM on Breakfast:

"The logistical challenge that we have, that you will have heard us be very open about, is that around that Christmas and summer period we can expect top have up to 30 and 40,000 people trying to move around that land boundary and we're working on ways or whether or not indeed it's possible to set up checks that just don't lead to really prolonged delays," Ardern said.

"Or whether or not it is possible" is the key here.

It should be obvious to everyone that this isn't going to be possible at all. But apparently there'll be a decision/announcement by the end of this month.

Luckily for the rest of NZ, most of the places Kiwis who rely on accommodation want to go will have been booked out for months at this point.

Get ready for Äucklanders having no restrictions for Christmas just so long as they stay within the Auckland border boundary.

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#2809254 8-Nov-2021 12:31

SJB:
I was thinking more in terms of double jabbed/-ve test if you want to travel to SI. Very easy to implement that.

You might as well make NI border free. It's not going to make much difference in the long run and the numbers will just ramp up quicker that's all. They are going to be high in any case.

The trouble is our poorly functional hospitals that haven't been given much love for the last 18 months nor seen much of the billions we handed out to people.

SJB

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#2809259 8-Nov-2021 12:36

Batman:
SJB:

I was thinking more in terms of double jabbed/-ve test if you want to travel to SI. Very easy to implement that.

You might as well make NI border free. It's not going to make much difference in the long run and the numbers will just ramp up quicker that's all. They are going to be high in any case.

The trouble is our poorly functional hospitals that haven't been given much love for the last 18 months nor seen much of the billions we handed out to people.

Agreed, but that's going to be the same situation whether it's next month or 6 months time.

GV27

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#2809260 8-Nov-2021 12:39

Technofreak:

Get ready for Äucklanders having no restrictions for Christmas just so long as they stay within the Auckland border boundary.

Won't happen. We're getting rock solid assurances about the fact we'll be able to move around.

The only question marks are how difficult that's going to be at the border at this point.

Although redrawing those boundaries to include the golden triangle and not include Northland/South of the mountains hadn't occurred to me. I wonder if that's being considered.

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