2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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867 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2834928 17-Dec-2021 13:10

The current NSW projections from Chris Billington are for 100,000 cases per day by early January and if we extend that line further, then perhaps 1 million a day later in the month (at which point the entire state gets infected in a week).

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

Even if the real numbers are much lower, the number of active cases could be huge and the result will be a severely overloaded health system in NSW, or any place that receives travellers from NSW or other parts of the world with large numbers of Omicron cases in the community.

Even if the death toll from Omicron is very much lower than other variants, the testing system could be completely overloaded. Medical staff and patients will be waiting a long time to know which variant they are dealing with in each case. Do they assume Delta and accept huge numbers of patients into hospitals, or assume Omicron and tell people they will probably be o.k. to recover at home?

Thankfully we have an MIQ system that can filter out at least some cases and give us a little more time to prepare.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

quickymart

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#2834929 17-Dec-2021 13:21

What the hell happened here??

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/human-rights-commissioner-met-with-brian-tamaki-ahead-of-anti-vaccine-mandate-protest.html

Hate to say it, but I feel that the Human Rights Commissioner meeting with Brian Tamaki would do nothing but embolden him and his "cause".

vexxxboy

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#2834931 17-Dec-2021 13:30

alexx:

The current NSW projections from Chris Billington are for 100,000 cases per day by early January and if we extend that line further, then perhaps 1 million a day later in the month (at which point the entire state gets infected in a week).

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

Even if the real numbers are much lower, the number of active cases could be huge and the result will be a severely overloaded health system in NSW, or any place that receives travellers from NSW or other parts of the world with large numbers of Omicron cases in the community.

Even if the death toll from Omicron is very much lower than other variants, the testing system could be completely overloaded. Medical staff and patients will be waiting a long time to know which variant they are dealing with in each case. Do they assume Delta and accept huge numbers of patients into hospitals, or assume Omicron and tell people they will probably be o.k. to recover at home?

Thankfully we have an MIQ system that can filter out at least some cases and give us a little more time to prepare.

feeling that total is way to high, South Africa is seeing 22,000 cases a day and they are starting to taper off in a population way bigger than NSW and they found that people were only spending 3 days instead of 8 for delta in Hospital and not needing oxygen or ventilation and most people were in hospital for other reasons and were tested for covid while in there. if we can keep it out for a month then we will know what other countries have gone through and we will be in a good position to do what is best.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

alexx

867 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 291

#2834933 17-Dec-2021 13:32

quickymart:

What the hell happened here??

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/human-rights-commissioner-met-with-brian-tamaki-ahead-of-anti-vaccine-mandate-protest.html

Hate to say it, but I feel that the Human Rights Commissioner meeting with Brian Tamaki would do nothing but embolden him and his "cause".

It would interesting to compare arrest rates for Tamaki, other anti-vax/covid denier protests and the arrest rates of other protesters, for example the Protect Pūtiki environmental protest group who are protesting against a Marina development at Pūtiki Bay on Waiheke Island.

It seems to me that the police have bent over backwards to protect the rights of Brian Tamaki and other anti-vax protesters.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 249

#2834945 17-Dec-2021 14:08

vexxxboy:

alexx:

The current NSW projections from Chris Billington are for 100,000 cases per day by early January and if we extend that line further, then perhaps 1 million a day later in the month (at which point the entire state gets infected in a week).

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

Even if the real numbers are much lower, the number of active cases could be huge and the result will be a severely overloaded health system in NSW, or any place that receives travellers from NSW or other parts of the world with large numbers of Omicron cases in the community.

Even if the death toll from Omicron is very much lower than other variants, the testing system could be completely overloaded. Medical staff and patients will be waiting a long time to know which variant they are dealing with in each case. Do they assume Delta and accept huge numbers of patients into hospitals, or assume Omicron and tell people they will probably be o.k. to recover at home?

Thankfully we have an MIQ system that can filter out at least some cases and give us a little more time to prepare.

feeling that total is way to high, South Africa is seeing 22,000 cases a day and they are starting to taper off in a population way bigger than NSW and they found that people were only spending 3 days instead of 8 for delta in Hospital and not needing oxygen or ventilation and most people were in hospital for other reasons and were tested for covid while in there. if we can keep it out for a month then we will know what other countries have gone through and we will be in a good position to do what is best.

The peaking wave in South Africa's Gauteng province is very encouraging with a caveat around infection acquired immunity and a younger demographic.

Professor Shahib Madhi South African Vaccinologist when commenting on the Gauteng wave peaking early, thinks it is due to the level of herd immunity in that region. He thinks that Omicron is not less virulent than Delta. He thinks the immunity levels have stopped the serious outcomes seen with Delta.

Hopefully he is wrong.

That would mean healthcare getting smashed by antivaxxers everywhere in countries like ours that have never had big reservoirs of immunity from disease among the unvaccinated.

Still, it is not bad news for the vaccinated, unless you need urgent health care for something else, or you have not stocked up on two weeks food etc for a big spread event that slows down and or creates gaps in supply chains.

Professor Mandhi thinks most people on two shots will be protected from serious disease.

Frustratingly the picture in South Africa remains cloudy. However it is interesting to hear someone from there say the disease is not less harmful than Delta.

Just keep swimming...

Scott3

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#2834948 17-Dec-2021 14:18

NZ daily numbers continue to be good news. 76 community cases announced today, and we are down to 51 people in hospital:

There are 51 people in hospital with Covid-19 and 76 new community cases in the Delta outbreak, the Ministry of Health announced in a statement on Friday.

Forty-seven of the new cases are in Auckland, 15 in Waikato, 10 in the Bay of Plenty, one in Lakes and three in Taranaki.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300480752/covid19-51-people-in-hospital-5-in-intensive-care-76-cases

We have now hit two weeks after the move to the protection framework, without an uptick in cases. Slight decline in testing numbers, but we are still doing pretty decent amounts of testing, so I think this metric is valid.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/testing-covid-19

We seem to be effectively managing Delta largely via our high vaccination levels, and a bit of mask wearing. Basically following what NSW did a few weeks back.

And we are still continuing to do a solid 2417 first doses a day. about 0.06% of the eligible population a day. Quite respectable given we are already at 94% of eligible with their first dose.

The bad news is what is going on beyond (and in) our MIQ with Omicron.

Case numbers in Aussie, UK etc are going nuts.

We know Omicron is extremely contagious, that the current pfizer vaccine is less effective against it, and that it it milder.

The biq question still unanswered is exactly how much milder.

Another three positive cases on from the same flight as our Omicron case in MIQ. Still awaiting genome sequencing, but timing suggests they have been infected during their travel. [edit] - one of the three is has been confirmed to be delta.

Given international case numbers booming and omicron being more contagious, it is only a matter of time (weeks?) before we see a MIQ leak, and get it in our community. At that point it will spread with NSW style speed. Then a very low hospitalization rate like 0.1% could cause major issues for our hospital system.

Good news is we are in the rare position of being able to watch and observe Omicron offshore. And have 2.2m pfizer doses in the freezer.

We should know the result of the NSW experiment before new years, by watching their hospitalization numbers. - Will tell us if omicron is the pandemic ending mild & Contagious variant we have all been hoping for.
We can use that information to decide what to do with the border re-opening.
We also have the luxury of being able to choose if we shorten up the spacing for booster doses. If the call is made to drop the spacing to say 3 or 4 months, we could start rolling out 100k+ doses a day, and get most of our elderly etc. boosted in a matter or weeks.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/more-21000-vaccines-given-yesterday-76-community-cases-51-hospital-5-icu

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ezbee

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#2834971 17-Dec-2021 14:56

Germany has a lowish vaccination rate, but finding itself potentially short of vaccines.
So maybe we have done well compared with advanced economies, then there is USA, and UK for comparison.

Germany scrambles to buy millions of coronavirus vaccine doses
Health Minister Lauterbach has said Germany could face vaccine shortages early next year if new doses are not acquired. Finance Minister Lindner has said the country will spend €2.2 billion to buy 92 million jabs.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-scrambles-to-buy-millions-of-coronavirus-vaccine-doses/a-60138114

Then they have to deal with violent covidiots.

Germany: Police raid COVID skeptics over alleged assassination plot
Police in the eastern state of Saxony launched predawn raids over a potential plot to harm state Premier Michael Kretschmer among people opposed to COVID-19 restrictions. Some suspects claimed to have guns or crossbows.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-police-raid-covid-skeptics-over-alleged-assassination-plot/a-60124553

""
"The members of the chat group, which links opponents of vaccination, the state, and the current anti-pandemic policy, stated plans of murdering the premier of Saxony and other representatives of the Saxony government, both in the group and in non-virtual meetings," police said in a statement.
""

Scott3

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#2834986 17-Dec-2021 15:52

Talk of Novavax getting EU approval Next week, and subsequently an emergency use listing from the WHO.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-could-gain-european-who-approval-next-week-ft-2021-12-16/

CEO of Serum Insitiute of India made an intersting comment a couple of days back:

"...global vaccine supplies were outstripping the absorption capacity of many countries."

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/88273644.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

This is obviously great news (especially for low income countries) that world is moving beyond being supply constrained in this regard.

For countries like NZ & Germany there is a bit of a balancing act. Wanting to have plenty in stock for your own needs, but not so much that:

It looks like you are hording what should be going to the 3rd world
You have doses expiring.
You a stuck with millions of obsolete doses if a new groundbreaking formulation becomes available.

Personally I wouldn't be too worried about Germany actually running out - if they get worryingly low, and can't get an urgent shipment from a manufacture, I am sure other EU nations will sell them some of their ageing stocks.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 249

#2834993 17-Dec-2021 16:24

ezbee:

Germany has a lowish vaccination rate, but finding itself potentially short of vaccines.
So maybe we have done well compared with advanced economies, then there is USA, and UK for comparison.

Germany scrambles to buy millions of coronavirus vaccine doses
Health Minister Lauterbach has said Germany could face vaccine shortages early next year if new doses are not acquired. Finance Minister Lindner has said the country will spend €2.2 billion to buy 92 million jabs.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-scrambles-to-buy-millions-of-coronavirus-vaccine-doses/a-60138114

Then they have to deal with violent covidiots.

Germany: Police raid COVID skeptics over alleged assassination plot
Police in the eastern state of Saxony launched predawn raids over a potential plot to harm state Premier Michael Kretschmer among people opposed to COVID-19 restrictions. Some suspects claimed to have guns or crossbows.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-police-raid-covid-skeptics-over-alleged-assassination-plot/a-60124553

""
"The members of the chat group, which links opponents of vaccination, the state, and the current anti-pandemic policy, stated plans of murdering the premier of Saxony and other representatives of the Saxony government, both in the group and in non-virtual meetings," police said in a statement.
""

Germany is an example of the need to capture the people before misinformation sets in.

When Germany was taking military transports from Northern Italy at the start of this, and Army trucks with bodies were in convoys on Italy's roads, you could have sold a vaccine no problem.

Skip forward to today after bungled messaging, stocking issues serious staffing shortages at vaccine centers in the most organized health care system in the world and you have a shocking outcome.

Mandates are the answer for Germany.

Just keep swimming...