2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2944373 20-Jul-2022 16:52

arnies:

mattwnz:

I thought they were already doing it this way.

Nope, until yesterday _any_ death with a covid positive test within the last 28 days was considered a 'covid death'.

So in effect the virus just got 33% less-deadly.

They have been reporting death "from" COVID, but it was very much after the fact, ( its would take months for them to classify them)

- You can see the data on this page, they haven't updated the tables yet, so it shows only 846 official Covid deaths

https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics#deaths

Now they will just be reporting the "from COVID" as the headline daily figure from Friday.... so the numbers should fall by 1/3 - and likely bring NZ daily mortality into line with states in OZ

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#2944406 20-Jul-2022 17:56

arnies:

mattwnz:

I thought they were already doing it this way.

Nope, until yesterday _any_ death with a covid positive test within the last 28 days was considered a 'covid death'.

So in effect the virus just got 33% less-deadly.

Make that a 23% reduction (not 33%)

As below, 22.9% classified as not related to COVID-19 (ex MOH "cases recorded prior to 11:59 pm 19 July 2022").

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#2944408 20-Jul-2022 18:08

Pretty sure (stream was on, and was discussing with the wife (she had my attention, honest!)) Dr Bloomfield said in yesterday's stand-up, that the change in reporting is due to the WHO changing their requirements/instructions on how/what to report. NZ already had systems in place to make this change, but some other countries (don't know which) are still reporting under the old method.

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#2944409 20-Jul-2022 18:18

wellygary:

...

They have been reporting death "from" COVID, but it was very much after the fact, ( its would take months for them to classify them)

- You can see the data on this page, they haven't updated the tables yet, so it shows only 846 official Covid deaths

https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics#deaths

Now they will just be reporting the "from COVID" as the headline daily figure from Friday.... so the numbers should fall by 1/3 - and likely bring NZ daily mortality into line with states in OZ

See figures in the table I just posted. They have now classified ~90% of the deaths to date, so it is not taking months.

Also, is it not just the "from COVID" deaths that will be reported. Includes deaths where COVID is a contributing factor.

As per my post 'yesterday', it seems the change may only affect the "total COVID-19 deaths" figure, not the headline 'deaths/day' number reported?

The statement on their website is a bit open to interpretation in that regard though.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10424-community-cases-788-hospitalisations-20-icu-21-deaths

Change to reporting COVID-19 deaths
From today, we will be changing the way we report COVID-19 deaths, shifting from reporting all people who died within 28 days of a COVID-19 infection to people who died because of COVID-19 or where it was recorded as a contributing factor. While we continue to report additional deaths with COVID-19 in the daily updates, the focus on reporting total COVID-19 deaths will shift to cases where COVID-19 is either the underlying or a contributing cause of a death. These are the deaths that can be wholly or partly ‘attributed’ to COVID-19. ...

arnies

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#2944521 20-Jul-2022 21:32

Yeah I’m unsure if they’ve actually changed the way they report it yet. The release today still uses the term “with covid”.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10320-community-cases-744-hospitalisations-17-icu-34-deaths

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#2944624 21-Jul-2022 08:29

arnies:

Yeah I’m unsure if they’ve actually changed the way they report it yet. The release today still uses the term “with covid”.
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10320-community-cases-744-hospitalisations-17-icu-34-deaths

Although on average it is not taking 'months' to classify the deaths, it will often take a few weeks.

In general they will not know classifications for deaths over the last week or so, which is presumably why the daily numbers being reported will continue to be 'with' covid.

As the press release I linked indicated, it is the reported total deaths that will 'focus on' deaths due and contributed to by COVID-19.

I assume the totals reported will include deaths already classified as due and contributed to by COVID-19, plus recent cases yet to be classified. Hence the 'focus on' rather than 'solely be'.

But yes, despite what the link stated, the total deaths reported yesterday (1,870) still includes the 'not related COVID-19' cases

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wellygary

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#2945174 22-Jul-2022 10:36

Well the Ministry of Education is wheeling out the big guns this morning, you have really got to wonder why they even bother...

According to a Ministry of Education website, Associate Minister Jan Tinetti has “sent a letter informing school boards outlining the Government’s strong recommendation to review and enforce a mask wearing policy as much as practicable”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/300642391/covid19-government-changes-position-on-masks-in-schools-again-enforcement-advice-issued

The current advice is now

"For Term 3 2022
The Ministries of Education and Health strongly recommend that all schools and kura amend their mask policy for the first four weeks of term to require mask wearing in all indoor settings (where it will not have a significant impact on teaching and learning – see below) for students in Years 4 and above."

It used to be ( from the internet archive)

"It's strongly encouraged that face masks continue to be worn by ākonga and staff in Years 4-13 when indoors. "

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#2945185 22-Jul-2022 11:12

wellygary:

Well the Ministry of Education is wheeling out the big guns this morning, you have really got to wonder why they even bother...

According to a Ministry of Education website, Associate Minister Jan Tinetti has “sent a letter informing school boards outlining the Government’s strong recommendation to review and enforce a mask wearing policy as much as practicable”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/300642391/covid19-government-changes-position-on-masks-in-schools-again-enforcement-advice-issued

The current advice is now

"For Term 3 2022
The Ministries of Education and Health strongly recommend that all schools and kura amend their mask policy for the first four weeks of term to require mask wearing in all indoor settings (where it will not have a significant impact on teaching and learning – see below) for students in Years 4 and above."

It used to be ( from the internet archive)

"It's strongly encouraged that face masks continue to be worn by ākonga and staff in Years 4-13 when indoors. "

Based on the actions of other Ministers and senior officials that's a bit of "do as we say but not do as we do". They all need to walk the walk as well.

Why only the first four weeks of term? Is Covid disappearing after that?

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#2945187 22-Jul-2022 11:18

wellygary:

Well the Ministry of Education is wheeling out the big guns this morning, you have really got to wonder why they even bother...

Complacency

Anger when some people get ordered to look after their and others health, as per the nationwide protests

Thus, its basically still voluntary, as some people think they should not be upset or inconvenienced.

Big outbreak, on go the masks, low outbreak, she'll be right. Thats why it will always be here, until it mutates into a cold

Some time ago here someone posted that they saw two guys chatting at a store, one said what are you doing here, on leave? No, I got Covid or words to that effect. You cannot fight a virus these days

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#2945189 22-Jul-2022 11:26

Technofreak:

Why only the first four weeks of term? Is Covid disappearing after that?

because they dont want a big spike after the holidays, beyond that they dont really care as it seems they are happy with were things have been.

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#2945192 22-Jul-2022 11:33

Jase2985:

Technofreak:

Why only the first four weeks of term? Is Covid disappearing after that?

because they dont want a big spike after the holidays, beyond that they dont really care as it seems they are happy with were things have been.

IMO its as there is no choice. The people dont want restrictions, so we live with it. But yes, a post holiday spike isnt what hospital need right now

I feel there should be enforced mask wearing as and where possible, and sell it as its for hospitals and healthcare employees. Probably cause an uproar still though

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Technofreak

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#2945202 22-Jul-2022 11:58

Jase2985:

Technofreak:

Why only the first four weeks of term? Is Covid disappearing after that?

because they dont want a big spike after the holidays, beyond that they dont really care as it seems they are happy with were things have been.

If they're happy with the way things have been, then they need to get about about among the plebs a bit more to see what affect Covid is having with business disruption through staff having time off for isolation. A lot of businesses are under the pump right now.

A bit of leadership around encouraging preventative measures would be a very good thing in my opinion.

Just targeting one area, in this case schools, is very piecemeal and on it's own pretty ineffective in getting more widespread adoption of the likes of mask wearing.

Right now there's pretty strong indirect messages that mask wearing etc isn't that important. Unfortunately due to the mixed messaging from those who should be showing a lead I think they've "lost the room" and it's going to be hard to get a gainful increase in mask use etc.

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chatterbox

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#2945571 23-Jul-2022 13:47

Jase2985:

Technofreak:

Why only the first four weeks of term? Is Covid disappearing after that?

because they dont want a big spike after the holidays, beyond that they dont really care as it seems they are happy with were things have been.

Covid waves go up and down regardless of intervention. We've seen that play out elsewhere in the world. I think late July, early August is supposed to be our peak, after that the current wave should recede.

Making sure people have access to antivirals will hopefully help reduce the peak and therefore pressure on the hospital systems. Given comparisons to overseas I'm not really convinced masking in retail is very effective at reducing spread as most of that occurs in settings like home or work.

PolicyGuy

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#2945573 23-Jul-2022 13:54

chatterbox:

Covid waves go up and down regardless of intervention. We've seen that play out elsewhere in the world. I think late July, early August is supposed to be our peak, after that the current wave should recede.

Looks like it may have crested where I live:

🤞🤞🤞

chatterbox

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#2945634 23-Jul-2022 15:00

PolicyGuy:
chatterbox:

Covid waves go up and down regardless of intervention. We've seen that play out elsewhere in the world. I think late July, early August is supposed to be our peak, after that the current wave should recede.

Looks like it may have crested where I live:

🤞🤞🤞

Our national numbers seemed to have flattened out over the last 2 weeks. It dipped initially and I wondered how much of that was due to school holidays. Anyway, you can only tell you’re over the peak once you’re well and truly on the downward trend. School’s back next week. Time will tell but it would certainly be nice to be on a downward trend earlier. Have to see what the national hospital number is doing too.

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