2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2416800 12-Feb-2020 18:44

Just watched the Wellington Hospital lecture, at the Wellington Otago Medical School.

I found it somewhat interesting, and mostly easy to follow.

The Australian made an interesting point that cloth facial covers/scarves may be worse than wearing no facial cover at all, since they are moist, and not frequently washed.

Some unexpected good questions from the audience members. There was an audience member from Wuhan, and she was obviously highly distressed. She didn't really trust the Chinese statistics / reports.

She also gave a stark warning about stockpiles of disposable N95 masks (respirators), and eye protection. She was also highly concerned about a lack of test kits.

She also made a good point about the lack of disposable shoe covers.

I've seen some people mocking Chinese for wearing water bottles over their heads, but given the discussion of water droplets from breathing, not even sneezes, it may not be as crazy as I thought.

Also a good point made by a primary care worker about what to do about a sick child, and a lack of protective gear.

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#2416802 12-Feb-2020 18:47

kingdragonfly:
She also gave a stark warning about stockpiles of disposable N95 masks (respirators), and eye protection. She was also highly concerned about a lack of test kits.

More to add to those piles..

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/02/coronavirus-bunnings-store-sold-out-of-face-masks.html

tdgeek

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#2416808 12-Feb-2020 19:09

arcon:

Ummm... it most certainly didn't apply to other countries. Swing and a miss bro.

We can do better? What are you talking aant find the article I read yesterdaybout? China literally doesn't want to block travel, other countries including NZ have. If your post was any more misleading TBH I think a Mod might remove it.

Block travel? Getting into NZ is easy. I can't find the article I read yesterday, Im sure it was on Stuff but searches find nothing, In any case, a traveller arrived here. A few signs, a nurse with hand wash, a question the yransititng in the US have you been to China? Thats it.

Who contributed to the outbreaks in Mexico, Middle East, Australia? Let alone the many prior? Have you read about H1N1 in the US? Cover up? Off course not its the US. Written off as common flu? Read Batmans post. Tell me what is lies? Or is China the only corrupt country here? But i DO get where you are coming from.......

Rikkitic

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#2416810 12-Feb-2020 19:13

If we survive this, I can just imagine all the disaster films about cruise ships from hell sailing in circles while people sicken and run out of supplies and every country they try to dock at sending out warships to drive them away. Will anyone ever book a cruise again?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2416815 12-Feb-2020 19:21

Fred99:

Scott3:

With regards to under-reporting in both 2009 and 2019. One does not make the other acceptable. If I recall rightly more transparency on such issues was promised by china after SAR's. I'm not seeing it.

"China is not trying to hide these hardships" - The arrest of doctors & journalists who have been whistle-blowers implies strongly otherwise.

The US CDC was supposed to / announced that they'd readied a team to travel to China a few days ago, that of course would be subject to the approval of the Chinese government, since then I've heard nothing - there's nothing I could find on the CDC website.

I'm not comfortable with the WHO response, but they are between a rock and a hard place. If they were to be publicly critical of China's response, then they'd lose cooperation which would be bad, if they aren't critical, then they're probably not fulfilling their global governance role which would be bad. I'm not sure how you're supposed to come to a conclusion that it's "not so bad" given China's history (and as it's appearing to be at the moment - their present handling of this).

An article in The NY Times also suggests that China have ignored offers from CDC and also WHO. It includes the following gem:

Experts raised a related concern: China’s scientists are given large rewards for publishing in prestigious journals. That creates an incentive to hold back samples and data until publication. Although the American C.D.C. has in the past sometimes had fraught relations with other countries because it used their samples and published analyses of them without giving credit they felt was due, its first priority was still to issue epidemic warnings if they were needed and then to publish later.

“In an epidemic, you don’t want information held back,” one expert said. “You want transparency.”

Genuine question. Are China's efforts to quarantine bad? Are they withholding the makeup of the virus. What I have read is that they have distributed that everywhere. Im not sure what would happen if Auckland had the outbreak, or New York, or LA.

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#2416836 12-Feb-2020 19:28

That was my understanding too, That initial copies were handed out after the rough sequencing was done. Most of the papers coming out now that I've seen are derivatives of public numbers like the R0 6.6 number before which was based on a doubling timeframe from public numbers so it might be that some of the hard datasets they are coming up with is being hidden until peerreview/publish

Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

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#2416837 12-Feb-2020 19:29

Rikkitic:

If we survive this, I can just imagine all the disaster films about cruise ships from hell sailing in circles while people sicken and run out of supplies and every country they try to dock at sending out warships to drive them away. Will anyone ever book a cruise again?

Im enjoying the technical detail provided by some here, particularly Fred. But I'll admit the sensationalism from some is a bit hard to take. Its like the first Corona Virus that has occurred, and we all know who is to blame..... We have all had it, and we will all get it again.

But yes, despite the regular past of these outbreaks, and how they are part of our daily lives anyway, I'm sure there will be films on it, with all the requesit blame and horror stories.

And yes, I am quite aware of the various facilities of the incumbent nation.

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Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

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#2416840 12-Feb-2020 19:35

On another topic, what are the opinions here of when this will burn out? Its similar to SARS, less deadly, but the asympnotomatic factor is the huge variable. Summer environment will impact it heavily, quarantine, well whoever decides to quarantine themselves will also impact it, by removing hosts. Immunity will also help. It will still be alive and well, like SARS, but nowhere to go. Northern hemisphere will be moving to spring and summer soon, Southern will be moving to the flu period, Autumn and Winter. The ideal environment. And do we quanatiune here in NZ, thats hugely doubtful.

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#2416845 12-Feb-2020 19:50

Asymptomatic transmission occurs is ALOT of virus's, SARS had it happen in a number of cases. The key is if it's a rare occurrence or not.

Personally looking outside China i think we're going to peak confirmed cases in 3-6 weeks globally. My only hesitation are the possibilities countries with compromised healthcare aren't picking it up today allowing for another large cluster to pop up. Inside China I think things are going to be bad, Peaking in 12 weeks atleast with deaths reaching 5 figures via the "official" channels. I'm expecting to see more formal lockdowns inside China soon

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#2416848 12-Feb-2020 20:00

Beccara:

Asymptomatic transmission occurs is ALOT of virus's, SARS had it happen in a number of cases. The key is if it's a rare occurrence or not.

Personally looking outside China i think we're going to peak confirmed cases in 3-6 weeks globally. My only hesitation are the possibilities counties with compromised healthcare aren't picking it up today allowing for another large cluster to pop up. Inside China I think things are going to be bad, Peaking in 12 weeks atleast with deaths reaching 5 figures via the "official" channels. I'm expecting to see more formal lockdowns inside China soon

From what I read about SARS, it was often a case of when you have the symptoms you can infect. So people get crook, and self isolate, even if thats cos I'm sick or when it hit the news. It hung around for a good while but only 8000 cases. Annecdotally, from my contact with the Chinese, self isolating is a MUST. Ive talked to some workmates here in NZ, no one seems interested. Yes, ill work from home, but if Im fine ill go to the Warehouse, Curry House and supermarket. Fly in from an infected country we got asked to self isolate. Its casual and voluntary it seems, it wont happen here who cares?

Inside China, they are moving to Spring and Summer, that, with isolation and the culture based caution should make a huge difference, but it will be high casualties. The virus is fine and healthy but it will find it tough to get new hosts.

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#2416856 12-Feb-2020 20:07

From memory i think most asymptomatic transmissions under SARS were in healthcare workers. China's walking a tight rope at the moment trying to avoid societal breakdown, I don't think they will get away with much more than 3-4 weeks of isolation, Once the bodies start to stink building by building things will break down

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#2416860 12-Feb-2020 20:17

Beccara:

From memory i think most asymptomatic transmissions under SARS were in healthcare workers. China's walking a tight rope at the moment trying to avoid societal breakdown, I don't think they will get away with much more than 3-4 weeks of isolation, Once the bodies start to stink building by building things will break down

Yes, its not easy. My wife who is from Wuhan, and videoed family today as there was a great Auntie who passed away, talked about it. They are all happily self isolating as they have to. Happily is the wrong word, they are ok doing whats needed to be done. Stores that have been overpricing goods have been heavily dealt with. From what I gather they aren't finding it terrible. They want to self isolate. They are a cautious people. But its not a walk in the park either, some areas will have logistics problems.

What would we all do if we all lived in AKL and it was rife? Stay home and wait it out. For most, the illness is just a bad flu, no cure, then it's gone. If you can wait it out, then the 98% survivors, are free of it, and have immunity. No hosts to be found. But add back in those that were less than ideal self isolators. But up there it's 1.6 billion not 5 million.

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#2416865 12-Feb-2020 20:25

In all honesty if this thing popped up in the middle of winter in Auckland with an R0 of 2-4 I'd expect to see 100-200 cases at least from the first few generations in the community before the 1st person even went to ED.

The work-thru-it culture it just too big in the west, Some middle-management lifestyle block owner get's something from his pig they would infect quite a few brushing it off as just a cold, If we're lucky patient zero would get hit hard and went to ED quickly and we'd see the authorities maybe become aware of it, I certainly doubt we'd lockdown Auckland as fast as China did tho

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#2416867 12-Feb-2020 20:34

tdgeek:

If you can wait it out, then the 98% survivors, are free of it, and have immunity.

Just commenting on that as it's an assumption that may not turn out to be true as time goes on.

For example a sample IIRC of 90 or so health workers known to have been infected with SARS in China, then tested for presence of antibodies only a year or so later, 10% tested negative. I think that's fairly well accepted - immunity from SARS didn't last long - maybe a few years. This is probably the same for Covid-19. This must be causing concern WRT to difficulty in developing an effective vaccine. It's also critical that the host species as well as any intermediate host are identified, to prevent fresh outbreaks.

Fred99

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#2416869 12-Feb-2020 20:42

tdgeek:

Genuine question. Are China's efforts to quarantine bad? Are they withholding the makeup of the virus. What I have read is that they have distributed that everywhere. Im not sure what would happen if Auckland had the outbreak, or New York, or LA.

I don't know. I was reasonably confident that China's response was kind of okay a few days ago, as every day goes on, less is adding up in their reporting of cases and their response. It alarms me that they'd reject outside expertise. Some of the "rumours" about inaccurate reporting seem to be being validated by reliable sources. Nobody seems to know - and the people outside China who should know have wildly divergent opinions - yet if China had been more up front and open from the start, my feeling is that (for better or worse) we'd all know a lot more.

Edit: OTOH, if they've got a couple of hundred thousand people on a list based on contact tracing, self isolating at home (thus possibly infecting an entire household), and haven't got the ability to test (even if they could give them all an rRT-PCR - which they can't - anyway the results aren't accurate enough), then it's out of control (even if containment measures are reducing the rate at which it spreads). I think the horse has bolted in China - the Chinese government knows it, and the chance of it not getting established here eventually is very slim.

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