2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2447562 26-Mar-2020 21:14

sbiddle:

Right now you're probably thinking "oh but the experts are saying this it must be true". But what if it's not? The one thing about this virus is experts all don't agree on many things.

That's sounding like a climate science argument.

I'd favour going with the consensus and risk overreacting - rather than the inevitable alternative.

*Herd immunity may never happen with Covid-19
*Case fatality rates where it's been controlled (ie China) are very high, but nowhere near as high as it will be when it swamps the health system as will be inevitable in some country that tries that crazy idea.

mattwnz

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#2447563 26-Mar-2020 21:17

Batman:

sbiddle:

In a best case scenario if NZ was to continue our look down for the next month we could see a few thousand infected people and hopefully no deaths. But what do we do then?

i agree with you. in my view this has gone so far that the fix is gone, there is no fix. if we keep this lockdown we will be locked forever.

i think the way forward is find a quick point of care test. every passenger gets a test, get result in 30 mins and then move on.

If we can eradicate it, which is what China is trying to do by the looks of it, and not importing new cases, then it is possible to move forward. Then we can run a domestic economy, and any overseas travel would require quarantine until a vaccine is developed. Unless they can develop a quick test for all incoming travelers, that is accurate and doesn't require the person to have symptoms.

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#2447564 26-Mar-2020 21:20

sbiddle:

Whether it's by luck, by incompetence or simply by trusting advisors, people like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump could be empowered in a way we could never have imagined. We can all laugh about Trump wanting the country back to normal by Easter - but what if that does happen? Does that mean it was the best approach?

it's possible, and yes.

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#2447565 26-Mar-2020 21:21

mattwnz:

Batman:

i agree with you. in my view this has gone so far that the fix is gone, there is no fix. if we keep this lockdown we will be locked forever.

i think the way forward is find a quick point of care test. every passenger gets a test, get result in 30 mins and then move on.

If we can eradicate it, which is what China is doing, and not importing new cases, then it is possible to move forward. Then we can run a domestic economy, and any overseas travel would require quarantine until a vaccine is developed. Unless they can develop a quick test for all incoming travelers, that is accurate and doesn't require the person to have symptoms.

there are rumours that is hasn't been eradicated in china, but we will find out in a few months.

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#2447567 26-Mar-2020 21:25

Batman:

meanwhile ...

TikTok influencer tests positive for coronavirus after licking toilet seat

https://play.stuff.co.nz/details/_6144786040001

Darwinism strikes again

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Fred99

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#2447568 26-Mar-2020 21:26

Batman:

sbiddle:

Whether it's by luck, by incompetence or simply by trusting advisors, people like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump could be empowered in a way we could never have imagined. We can all laugh about Trump wanting the country back to normal by Easter - but what if that does happen? Does that mean it was the best approach?

it's possible, and yes.

It's more likely that Trump will be saved by a diversion like an asteroid strike.

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Fred99

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#2447569 26-Mar-2020 21:27

Batman:

there are rumours that is hasn't been eradicated in china, but we will find out in a few months.

Nobody has claimed it's been "eradicated" in China.

mattwnz

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#2447570 26-Mar-2020 21:32

sbiddle:

In the last couple of days we've seen reports such as the one out of Oxford that argue 50% of the UK population are already exposed, and a figure already established was that herd immunity required 60% of the population. It's very clear that a significant number of people who are infected do show are asymptomatic and do not show any symptoms of illness, but do carry and spread it.

That is where blanket testing could help to identify the current state of who is infected, and now would be the time to do that while in lock down, to find out who actually has it. But there are conflicting reports as to whether the test works unless you show symptoms. People who haven't had any symptoms have tested positive in quite a few cases.
The other thing is that we have been told that someone who isn't showing symptoms has a low risk of spreading it, which is why with people travelling on the incoming planes, they had only been telling people sitting within a few seat rows of an infected passenger who didn't have symptoms while travelling, to self isolate.

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#2447571 26-Mar-2020 21:35

Too many economists wade into the arguments about what to do.

"The Dismal Science".
Given that name by a chap who argued for the reintroduction of slavery to boost productivity.

As an economist - he was right on the mark. As a human being - I hope he rots in hell.

Mahon

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#2447575 26-Mar-2020 21:39

This podcast with Bill Gates is very good and worth watching.

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_how_we_must_respond_to_the_covid_19_pandemic

DarthKermit

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#2447576 26-Mar-2020 21:39

I've noticed on my local Facebook buy/sell page people are listing all sorts of items as if nothing has changed.

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#2447577 26-Mar-2020 21:45

DarthKermit:

I've noticed on my local Facebook buy/sell page people are listing all sorts of items as if nothing has changed.

I believe firewood sales are OK and considered essential as long as contact rules apply. I am hoping the price of it will drop due to oversupply!!!

Fred99

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#2447580 26-Mar-2020 21:51

Mahon:

DarthKermit:

I've noticed on my local Facebook buy/sell page people are listing all sorts of items as if nothing has changed.

I believe firewood sales are OK and considered essential as long as contact rules apply. I am hoping the price of it will drop due to oversupply!!!

Yet most of the local ads are not for firewood - nor anything else "essential".

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#2447581 26-Mar-2020 21:52

Reports are still saying 20% of transmission is from asymptomatic infected. Virus found over cabin surfaces 17 days after passengers left. Viability? How would you tell as it's human disease.

I expect that if NZ police implement the law we will become virus free. And then we only exchange people between other virus free countries. But we put trackers on anyone coming into the country even if rapid PCR is negative so that we can contact trace should a new infection slip in.

The virus is mutating and the flattening in the curve as in the USA might need 80% infected not 60% and the high members of young people ending up in ICU is no party with no guarantee of lasting immunity. They'll end up with millions of dead, Spanish 1918 scenarios, but not as bad as 1911 Manchurian pneumonic plague which was 100% fatal.

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#2447582 26-Mar-2020 21:53

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

The Atlantic is making all articles about the Covid19 crisis free to read. I have not read it all yet but it mentions that Bill Gates gave a TED talk on the risk of pandemics.

(Sorry if link has been posted before.)

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