2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2453567 3-Apr-2020 10:05

Dingbatt:

So what is recovered? Is it free of symptoms? Free of symptoms for (insert figure here) days? No long term health issues? The death toll from known cases is also skewed by the amount of testing actually being done.

The answers to those question will determined by the agenda of the person releasing the figures.

The death toll figure/per infection is a real unknown. Some of the information I have read suggests there are many infections that have gone unreported or in some cases unnoticed since the symptoms were almost unnoticed

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Oblivian

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#2453574 3-Apr-2020 10:06

Dingbatt:
So what is recovered? Is it free of symptoms? Free of symptoms for (insert figure here) days? No long term health issues? The death toll from known cases is also skewed by the amount of testing actually being done.

Explained during press conf

48hrs after and asymptomatic test if no symptoms. Or 14 days after symptom's detected and subsided. Whichever is greater.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120787277/coronavirus-what-does-recovered-from-covid19-mean

Fred99

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#2453576 3-Apr-2020 10:08

Dingbatt:

So what is recovered? Is it free of symptoms? Free of symptoms for (insert figure here) days? No long term health issues? The death toll from known cases is also skewed by the amount of testing actually being done.

I wouldn't trust the official "recovered" figures. Long-term health issues - nobody really knows.

True that the death toll as a % of known cases skews the figure. Same problem with true case fatality rate from flu where the vast majority of cases are never diagnosed and recorded, so people pluck figures more or less out of thin air. Even SARS had asymptomatic cases - they tested seropositive years after the epidemic, health workers who never knew they'd been infected.

frankv

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#2453584 3-Apr-2020 10:16

Fred99:

Technofreak:

From this NZHerald item https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12322029

Southland / Otago regions have (at the time of writing this) double the NZ average cases per capita, but low population density.

There's no specifics about where the Southland/Otago cases are. But I'd wager that many are in the Queenstown/Wanaka region, being tourist-related infections, and many are Hereford farmers from that conference. I expect if those were excluded, Southland/Otago would fit the NZ norm.

Kyanar

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#2453588 3-Apr-2020 10:19

freitasm:

For those "young" people (under 40s) who think this is a question of "I am not going to do my part because someone else older than me is dying": A healthy 39-year-old DJ died of coronavirus. What his young widow and daughter want you to know.

And on that note, 39 isn't the youngest that has died. There is also a 13 year old boy with no pre-existing conditions who died.

Ismail Mohamed Abdulwahab, from Brixton, died at Kings College Hospital yesterday morning after being put into an induced coma. Hospital chiefs confirmed he had tested positive for Covid-19. His devastated family, who also lost their father to cancer, said the young teenager had no underlying health conditions and died alone due to coronavirus isolation rules

On a lighter note though, Samuel L Jackson has produced a poem about the virus:

Fred99

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#2453594 3-Apr-2020 10:30

frankv:

There's no specifics about where the Southland/Otago cases are. But I'd wager that many are in the Queenstown/Wanaka region, being tourist-related infections, and many are Hereford farmers from that conference. I expect if those were excluded, Southland/Otago would fit the NZ norm.

Yes. But there may be other reason(s) why several clusters in the region from presumably one index case infected so many. IIRC a wedding in Bluff - 37 confirmed positives.

There's a definite correlation (shown with SARS 1) between lower temperatures and how long the virus remains viable on surfaces/fomites.
I did read a hypothesis from a virologist that a main structural difference between SARS 1 and this SARS 2 was the phospholipid coating on the capsid is thicker and stickier with SARS 2. The epidemiology does seem to fit a pattern.

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FineWine

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#2453596 3-Apr-2020 10:31

freitasm:

Batman:

LA mayor recommends Masks for public

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/02/los-angeles-mayor-recommends-public-wear-masks-as-trump-administration-weighs-new-guidance/

What you left out is that the suggestion is for homemade masks or bandanas, leaving the medical-grade ones for the frontline people. And only use when going out for essentials.

Masks are a vector too - if people don't put and remove them correctly. If people use the same mask for days and days, all day long.

Fabric masks will become the next breeding ground.

- wear them all day
- come home take them off with bare hands and dump them on the side table, kitchen bench etc
- don't wash your hands
- or leave them on and hug the kids and partner
- off out the next time with same unsanitized mask

OHMG it would be just like wearing a dirty nappy all day and every day

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

FineWine

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#2453598 3-Apr-2020 10:33

Batman:

social media tips sent out in school newsletter as official advice

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12322099

Would not surprise me if she got all those tips from the Herald or Stuff click bait.

She might even have controversial views on vaccination.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Fred99

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#2453600 3-Apr-2020 10:38

There's also a risk with protective measures - which probably includes masks - risk compensation "the Peltzman Effect".

You see the result of this demonstrated on the road - with BMW drivers never using indicators, because new BMWs usually have more airbags than old Toyotas. :-)

nzkiwiman

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#2453622 3-Apr-2020 11:08

My personal theory is that some form of curfew is needed; that the lockdown will be extended to 6 weeks nationally and if the Southern DHB (Dunedin, Queenstown, Invercargill areas) continue to have more confirmed cases, then the Southern region will be in lockdown for a bit longer than the rest.

Found this article when looking at masks and asymptomatic carriers; https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understand-about-asymptomatic-carriers-if-were-going-to-beat-coronavirus

Makes me feel like I just want to get the virus and "get it over and done with" so that I can get on with life - that is of course assuming the virus didn't kill or cause massive internal issues to me.

tdgeek

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#2453626 3-Apr-2020 11:19

nzkiwiman:

My personal theory is that some form of curfew is needed; that the lockdown will be extended to 6 weeks nationally and if the Southern DHB (Dunedin, Queenstown, Invercargill areas) continue to have more confirmed cases, then the Southern region will be in lockdown for a bit longer than the rest.

Found this article when looking at masks and asymptomatic carriers; https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understand-about-asymptomatic-carriers-if-were-going-to-beat-coronavirus

Makes me feel like I just want to get the virus and "get it over and done with" so that I can get on with life - that is of course assuming the virus didn't kill or cause massive internal issues to me.

I agree too, I see another 2 weeks, that makes 6, enougb for the infected to cure and be immune, and 6 weeks where it cannot easily spread. It depends how much effect the flouters have. Matamata has 47 cases from one pub, a cluster. An example what a group of boozing flouters could do, then send it to supermarkets

Lets aim for 6 week, see where we are at

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#2453630 3-Apr-2020 11:34

There have been a few articles over last couple of months showing indication sarscov2 may have potential beyond just becoming endemic, with Epstein Barr like dormancy hypothesized. Also I saw a while back a study, small sample set though, showing possibility that up to 20% of "recovered" have some degree of pulmonary fibrosis.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077747/rare-coronavirus-patients-mild-symptoms-long-illness-may-point

concordnz

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#2453691 3-Apr-2020 12:15

Ge0rge: I guess if we tagged everyone, perhaps with an earring, so we could track them accurately, it'd be much easier!
Logically it makes absolute sense, but getting it to happen however...

We already have these, (they are called 'Phones' - ironically 'ear-ring'ing')

The challenge is logging/tracking ethically,
Police forces and Secret services are renowned to 'abuse' any 'trust' put in them.

Perhaps those charged with breaching Isolation, should be tracked/logged for 14 days, - allowing Police to place 'gps bounderies'

But how can we be sure the police wont abuse this facility in the future....

eracode

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#2453695 3-Apr-2020 12:22

Just got back from the supermarket and there was a bloke rushing round the shop who had brought 15kg of paella rice, 5 cases of tequila, 8 sombreros and 12 piñatas.

Blatant case of Hispanic buying.

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gchiu

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#2453698 3-Apr-2020 12:30

Sounds like a racist joke to me.

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