2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

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#2422355 17-Feb-2020 12:31

frankv:

I can't quite figure out how many on the ship are infected...

BNO seem to be keeping an up to date / up to the hour running tally, updated as soon as reports come in and referenced:

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

OTOH, despite that I'd give BNO a miss overall - their twitter feed especially seems to be full of unreferenced gossip and rumour.

The tally of "serious" cases should be taken with a grain of salt. Within China, it depends where as Hubei reports those cases when clinically diagnosed - other regions there has to be a positive test.
Outside China, only some countries are reporting how the patients are doing, so the total (currently 19 / 684 cases) listed as "serious" will be incomplete.

Beccara

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#2422358 17-Feb-2020 12:35

WHO puts the total at 355 on the Cruise ship

These are confirme cases that have been reported to the WHO, Not quite hour by hour but as accurate and speedy as you'll get IMHO

Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated

Beccara

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#2422471 17-Feb-2020 14:55

Discharge of the NZ quarantine people later today or first thing tomorrow I'm hearing

mattwnz

20164 posts

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#2422493 17-Feb-2020 15:00

Beccara:

Discharge of the NZ quarantine people later today or first thing tomorrow I'm hearing

Do they totally know what the definite incubation period is? I thought it was between 2-3 weeks.

Rikkitic

Awrrr
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#2422496 17-Feb-2020 15:10

In the meantime, American senator Tom Cotton is doing all he can to stir up conspiracy confusion and panic by accusing the Chinese of operating a secret bio-lab in Wuhan funded by Bill Gates that has released the virus. Or something like that. I can't be bothered wasting time trying to make sense of it but it's all over the usual conspiracy theory sites.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Batman

Mad Scientist
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#2422497 17-Feb-2020 15:11

apparently the most likely source of index patient is from one of the 2 research labs in wuhan close to the market, proposes one team of investigators.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12309151

Beccara

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#2422505 17-Feb-2020 15:18

mattwnz:

Do they totally know what the definite incubation period is? I thought it was between 2-3 weeks.

Currently accepted/confirmed is up to 13 days with the median being 5-6. There's unconfirmed reports of up to 23 days but the data behind it is sketchy

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Fred99

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#2422525 17-Feb-2020 15:35

Here's a link to the pre-print "paper" that seems to have been sensationalised by the media:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus

4 paragraphs in they state:

Was there any other possible pathway?

Then proceed down the path of a very narrow rabbit hole focusing solely on the idea that it escaped from a lab - yet not providing a shred of evidence to support what they're saying. Anecdote of a bat-catcher scientist being peed on and splattered with bat blood somewhere and some time included for sensational effect but isn't evidence of anything at all.

Edit - the link above has now stopped working, also to the pdf copy. Very good news if they've taken down abject BS masquerading as science, but would have been better if it redirected to something saying that the paper had been removed because it was BS.

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2422530 17-Feb-2020 15:44

Beccara:

mattwnz:

Do they totally know what the definite incubation period is? I thought it was between 2-3 weeks.

Currently accepted/confirmed is up to 13 days with the median being 5-6. There's unconfirmed reports of up to 23 days but the data behind it is sketchy

Longer reported incubation time possibly because contact with someone infected was known to have happened 23 days prior, but an assumption made that they probably had an unknown contact during that 23 day period.

The virus also reportedly may survive on surfaces for up to 9 days. There's also a slight issue in that if asymptomatic infection happens, then as incubation period is the time from when an infection was acquired to the time that symptoms are first reported, then the incubation period is infinite (/s). Finding out the spread of times from when first infected until the persons are no longer infectious would be kind of useful.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2422531 17-Feb-2020 15:44

Fred99:

Here's a link to the pre-print "paper" that seems to have been sensationalised by the media:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus

4 paragraphs in they state:

Was there any other possible pathway?

Then proceed down the path of a very narrow rabbit hole focusing solely on the idea that it escaped from a lab - yet not providing a shred of evidence to support what they're saying. Anecdote of a bat-catcher scientist being peed on and splattered with bat blood somewhere and some time included for sensational effect but isn't evidence of anything at all.

Personally I would have thought it would be more likely that it would come from a lab where they may test and develop vaccines or cures for this sort of thing. Rather than being passed on by some obscure animal, under certain conditions. But if it has come from an animal then I hope they will be doing something to improve their food hygiene and standards for things sold to the public. eg Make sure those animals are properly farmed and not wild, and free from disease. In NZ we have very strict food safety practices, and any first world country should be following something similar. Infact it is so bad in NZ that it is uneconomic and costly for many of the small producers in NZ to do all the compliance and auditing required (as it is all expensive to do), that they have had to cease production. But I don't know how NZ makes sure that all imported food products are made to the same standard that our food is made to.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2422540 17-Feb-2020 15:56

mattwnz:

Personally I would have thought it would be more likely that it would come from a lab where they test and develop cures for this sort of thing. Rather than being passed on by some obscure animal, under certain conditions.

Why? Basically every infectious contagious disease that have plagued humans since forever originally came from other species of animals as zoonoses. As a rough rule of thumb, the worse the disease the more recently it crossed species and became a human disease. Bats aren't rare or obscure, nor is contact between other species and bats. Some animals hang around under bat colonies waiting for a free meal to drop, I suppose a sick bat is more likely to drop than a well one.

Beccara

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#2422547 17-Feb-2020 16:02

Yeah virus's jump the species barrier more often than people think, most of the time they either don't make it in the new host or fail jumping internally within the new host species

Tinkerisk

4233 posts

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#2422847 18-Feb-2020 07:55

Tinkerisk:

... and received an alarm call for suspected COVID-19 when shopping at the weekend. The responsible health authority was informed immediately. Let us hope that the two suspected cases will not be confirmed.

Luckily the diagnosis of the two people has showed up just a flu.

They have been at home since their return from China and self-quarantined. The service from the supermarket supplied them with fresh food for cooking to the door with no contact to the driver. They just alerted the hospital without visiting it. Very good practice!

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