2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2461096 14-Apr-2020 14:02

kobiak:

I wonder if they should do random supermarket testing for people in the queues. like set-up pop-up station eg. WestGate/Albany Pak'n'Save for couple days. After move to another location. This way they will be testing community and not individuals who already have high possibility to have Covid-19. This would give a better picture if covid-19 has any community transmission. and based on these tests move to level 3/2.

Thats been suggested in the weekend. You would need to test 100,000 to make any use of it. AUS is seeing the same trend. Lockdown has cut COVID-19. It has also cut colds and the flu. Cases we see are still linked to known cases, and are already in lockdown. This is the value of lockdown. Theoretically, if you tested randomly at supermarkets you will find no one as any that are not feeling well wont be shopping. What will happen is if a case or two popped up in your suburb, but no idea how. Then they will heavily test your sunburn, that type of thing.

ben28

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#2461102 14-Apr-2020 14:10

My uneducated feeling is they should be running the labs at 100%. If our capacity is 5000 tests a day , then do 5000 a day.

as suggested above go to a supermarket near where we have a cluster eg Mt Albert , Matamata , and test everyone that consents. Stick the tests in a fridge and if the lab doesnt have any more urgent tests then do these. If these get too 'old' discard them

(or go to a retirement home and get as many tested there)

Above assumes that supplies of test kits is not an issue

Fred99

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#2461104 14-Apr-2020 14:13

ezbee:

Tests in 1 hour , but not till July, and there are 15min ones being worked on.
https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202004130023

IIRC a problem with those is that each device only tests one sample at a time (as well as the other problem of a ~20% false negative). One sample at a time, then <100 tests per day maximum even at 15 minutes each.

I believe Ashley Bloomfield suggested a good method for mass population screening. Use the PCR test - but "bundle" samples - so combine samples from say 50 people - if there's a positive result from a batch, then retest each person individually. This could give a better idea of community spread.

floydbloke

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#2461105 14-Apr-2020 14:13

kobiak:

I wonder if they should do random supermarket testing for people in the queues. ...

@kobiak Are you talking voluntary or forcing people to have a test?

I have not had one myself but I understand it's rather unpleasant, to the point of being painful, and I suspect quite a few people to be averse to being told "you're next".

Did Eric Clapton really think she looked wonderful...or was it after the 15th outfit she tried on and he just wanted to get to the party and get a drink?

mattwnz

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#2461123 14-Apr-2020 14:28

One of the symptoms of Covid19 is a loss of taste and/or smell, and that can be the only symptom . However according to the new testing requirements, they won' test you unless you also have another respiratory condition, such as a cough

The DG said there wasn't enough information about the loss of smell for it to be added as a specific symptom for people to be tested on that symptom alone. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12323463

The thing is that we already don't know a lot about this, and wouldn't we be better to act on the side of caution, especially if our testing has dropped so much.

Here is a NZ case who only had a loss of smell and taste, but no other conditions, and they tested positive https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/412733/loss-of-taste-and-smell-only-symptoms-for-covid-19-positive-new-zealander

Also what about antibody testing, to test who has already had it? I haven't much about this in NZ. IMO unless we know exactly who has it, and who hasn't elimination is difficult.

Test Test Test

kobiak

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#2461127 14-Apr-2020 14:32

@tdgeek more we test - better the picture? I know NZ is small and has less resources than other countries, but to do 100-200k tests a week should be no problem.

@floydbloke I'd say force. And I don't think nose swap is that painful. Only tough ones go to supermarket anyway :D

I'm not saying test anyone that they possibly can get hands on, but testing the larger group does make sense it this stage to confirm no community transmission. There's capacity to test - utilise it.

The only thing that concerns me - false-positive results. Are these too high?

helping others at evgenyk.nz

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#2461136 14-Apr-2020 14:46

dejadeadnz:

frankv:

I am appalled at the suggestion that these academics are saying this for the benefit of their employers. If it's true, then these guys are pretty craven and disgusting. They would be advocating the death of thousands of Kiwis to curry favour with their institutions or protect their own jobs. Whatever has happened to the principal of academic freedom? If it's false, then that's a terrible (actionable?) smear on someone's reputation.

There's certainly no such suggestion on my part. You really need to comprehend what people are saying carefully before drawing inferences. What I said is that people should be wary of those so called six experts are saying because their institutions have been involved in some of the most outrageous slandering of the good faith responses to the crisis by our public officials. That's not the same thing as saying that those six people (I should further state that it's hard to understand why anyone should give any credence to what a professor of law is saying in this context - and I say this as a lawyer) are essentially parrots of their employers. What I am saying is that the UoA, AUT University, and Victoria University have little credibility when it comes to their attitudes and responses towards this crisis.

OK. But academic freedom means that academics are free to hold and publish opinions distinct from their employers'. So the actions, statements, and perhaps even credibility of their institutions should be irrelevant to a discussion about these individuals' opinions. Yet you expressly brought their institutions into the discussion. That's why I inferred that you were implying a connection between the institutions' positions and the academics'.

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tdgeek

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#2461140 14-Apr-2020 14:52

kobiak:

@tdgeek more we test - better the picture? I know NZ is small and has less resources than other countries, but to do 100-200k tests a week should be no problem.

My feeling is that there isnt anyone to test. Here https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#summary

IF you look at the tests per day graph it at 1 April, it goes way up, and keeps rising, to a peak of 4500, then we see the tapering off at Easter. Look at the cases per day graph from 1 April, its down down down. They dont match, maybe thats the clue.

Given that the virus has few places to go, and people who have symptoms are at home not well, or already tested, it seems to me that you would be testing a lot of well people. Maybe we could do a campaign, if you have a cold or similar flu symptoms, book a test at this new 0800 number. But actually, people are supposed to have even doing that anyway.

I do agree with your idea, but I think the lockdown has snuffled out most of it.

This week will be interesting as its not Easter. Maybe tests will stay low, I reckon they will. Why? As we test people that need to be tested and they are falling away. We have 6000 tests we can do today, but no customers!

The other key is that it seems almost every new case is a hanger on of an existing case. Same bubble, close contact. We dont seem to be seeing any that are "I've been in my bubble all i've done is supermarkets, and now Ive got COVID-19" The CT we dread, doesnt seem to get any traction.

On2or3wheels

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#2461142 14-Apr-2020 14:58

Seriously, all these people asking for random testing.
Think through this logically.

Before Easter we were testing over 4000 a day I think.

These were generally from people showing symptoms or close contacts of known cases.

Even in these high probability tests, over 99% are negative.

Numbers of cases are dropping so we know for sure we don’t have lots of unknown transmission around.

You could randomly test a person & the day after they could still catch it, unless you could test everyone within the essential worker/home/supermarket bubble at the same time & then isolate everyone until the tests come back.

Tests come with a cost.

We only have a certain lab capacity.

And many more reasons.

dejadeadnz

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#2461143 14-Apr-2020 15:00

frankv:

OK. But academic freedom means that academics are free to hold and publish opinions distinct from their employers'. So the actions, statements, and perhaps even credibility of their institutions should be irrelevant to a discussion about these individuals' opinions. Yet you expressly brought their institutions into the discussion. That's why I inferred that you were implying a connection between the institutions' positions and the academics'.

Have you ever worked as an academic at a tertiary institute? I certainly have. Again, I emphasise that I have not made a point that went as far as you inferred. But quoting theoretical notions (even that which is enshrined in the relevant legislation) about academic freedom as an answer to everything is just naive. Institutions tend to favour academics that are seen as capturing headlines, are of high profile, and are perceived to be challenging established norms. Now of course these are good things when done in an academically rigorous way but when you assess the validity of their opinions, it's simply naive to not take into account the utter lack of credibility of their institutions in this matter. This especially when some of them have no obvious and relevant expertise and when some of their suggested methods/ideas have led to utter carnage elsewhere. Sorry but I am just not interested in a bunch of niceties and pleasant one-liners when you are talking about a matter as critically important as this issue.

dejadeadnz

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#2461149 14-Apr-2020 15:13

Large Auckland cluster of infection linked to a stag party

Yes - so when the authorities were asking for people (before the lockdown) for eons to minimise unnecessary gatherings, some people decided that a bit of giggles were required and now we have lots of people sick as a result.

Idiots.

neb

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#2461151 14-Apr-2020 15:16

shk292:
To be clear, I have no time for conspiracy theories and I've never knowingly read Fox News or Infowars, I'll leave those sites to you.

Ah, OK, sorry. The Trump propaganda machine has spent the last week or two heavily attacking the WHO (and other medical authorities like Dr.Fauci) in an attempt to draw attention away from the mess they've made of the US, so it's a bit difficult to tell genuine commentary from Trump/Fox distraction tactics. In particular mentioning "hidden agendas" is a pretty good sign of a conspiracy theory.

But, I am genuinely puzzled as to why the WHO issued guidance as late as mid March that closing international borders was not an appropriate response to the spreading COVID crisis. If I missed some scientific reason for this and you'd care to enlighten me, that would be welcome, thanks

You need to look at what was said in context. I don't know which specific thing you're referring to but I'm assuming it was something like "the best response is contact tracing, isolation of cases, etc, rather than drastic measures like closing borders". Closing borders is a really hard call politically, we still haven't closed our borders yet even at the height of the pandemic, WHO advice or not.

neb

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#2461153 14-Apr-2020 15:20

frankv:
This article states that WHO met with the Vietnamese Health Ministry AND US CDC on 15 January. Five days before any cases were reported in America. And Vietnam still has zero deaths, despite a common border with China.

The really interesting bit there is the mention of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). They took the advice of the same US government organisation that Trump was ignoring and beat, or at least managed very well, the Covid19 outbreak.

neb

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#2461156 14-Apr-2020 15:25

tdgeek:
This is out of left field. Experts here say we should pretty much go back to normal now

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120984583/coronavirus-lockdown-rules-should-be-relaxed-health-experts-say

Uhh, the story you've linked to is titled Coronavirus: Call for return to normal life puts tens of thousands at risk and the first sentence is "Tens of thousands of lives will be at risk if the country moves out of alert level four lockdown too early, public health experts have warned". This is the exact opposite of your summary of the article.

neb

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#2461160 14-Apr-2020 15:31

bmt:
We also have a "Professor of experimental economics" in the group. Why should we listen to these people commenting on a global pandemic? Just because they have a PhD or are a Professor of this or that doesn't necessarily make them any more qualified to comment than you or I.

They'd be qualified to comment from an economic point of view. Bloomberg had a writeup a few days ago linked from somewhere in this thread which quoted a range of economists (hey, it is Bloomberg Business News) on their thoughts on coming back out of lockdown. Not "when should we do it" but "how should it be managed when it happens to help preserve the integrity of the economy". It was insightful and interesting, and they were well-qualified to comment on that aspect of things, you just need to remember that they're being asked because of their expertise in finance, not medicine.

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