2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2461162 14-Apr-2020 15:36

neb:
tdgeek:
This is out of left field. Experts here say we should pretty much go back to normal now

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120984583/coronavirus-lockdown-rules-should-be-relaxed-health-experts-say

Uhh, the story you've linked to is titled Coronavirus: Call for return to normal life puts tens of thousands at risk and the first sentence is "Tens of thousands of lives will be at risk if the country moves out of alert level four lockdown too early, public health experts have warned". This is the exact opposite of your summary of the article.

Stuff changed the article since this morning, they added more opinions from other health experts and change the emphasis of the article

Clint

neb

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#2461163 14-Apr-2020 15:37

frankv: I think that economists, in the sense that they study and measure how people make choices, could have valuable insights. However, all the economists seem to be interested in is the financial aspect of the crisis, and getting back to full productivity.

If you ask a specialist about something, they'll comment on it from their specialist field of expertise. This is why you never invite a lawyer or engineer to a new product release.

I would be somewhat disturbed if an economist gave medical advice, but they've been asked for financial advice and have given it. It's then up to our leaders to balance the medical advice they're also getting and make an appropriate decision.

neb

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#2461165 14-Apr-2020 15:39

mattwnz:
One of the symptoms of Covid19 is a loss of taste and/or smell, and that can be the only symptom.

So for guys, remember to call out "Health check!" every time you, um, break wind.

tdgeek

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#2461166 14-Apr-2020 15:42

neb:
tdgeek:

This is out of left field. Experts here say we should pretty much go back to normal now

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120984583/coronavirus-lockdown-rules-should-be-relaxed-health-experts-say

Uhh, the story you've linked to is titled Coronavirus: Call for return to normal life puts tens of thousands at risk and the first sentence is "Tens of thousands of lives will be at risk if the country moves out of alert level four lockdown too early, public health experts have warned". This is the exact opposite of your summary of the article.

After that sentence which is stated by the journo reporting on these "6 experts" (see above for comments by others) it went:

This comes after a group of health and economic academics said the Government's lockdown plan is out of proportion with the health risks posed by coronavirus, and urged moving to near-normal life on April 22.

They labelled this alternative approach, equivalent to returning to alert level two, "plan b".

But Professor Nick Wilson, of Otago University's Department of Public Health, said modelling shows how severe things could be in New Zealand if the country had moved slower to lock down.

frankv

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#2461168 14-Apr-2020 15:45

dejadeadnz:

[quoted] frankv:

OK. But academic freedom means that academics are free to hold and publish opinions distinct from their employers'. So the actions, statements, and perhaps even credibility of their institutions should be irrelevant to a discussion about these individuals' opinions. Yet you expressly brought their institutions into the discussion. That's why I inferred that you were implying a connection between the institutions' positions and the academics'.

[/quoted]

Have you ever worked as an academic at a tertiary institute? I certainly have.

Yes... 15 years total at 2 institutions, 4 or 5 if you count name changes and merges.

But quoting theoretical notions (even that which is enshrined in the relevant legislation) about academic freedom as an answer to everything is just naive.

We can certainly agree on that. I'm happy to say that I have never claimed academic freedom as an answer to everything.

mattwnz

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#2461173 14-Apr-2020 15:50

neb:
mattwnz:

One of the symptoms of Covid19 is a loss of taste and/or smell, and that can be the only symptom.

So for guys, remember to call out "Health check!" every time you, um, break wind.

I am talking about a less common symptom that other people who have tested positive of the virus. Loss of taste and / smell is NOT normal.

Personally I have never had the loss or smell or taste, even when having a cold. Things may smell or taste different sometime, but I have never completely lost it. As per the article, they also hadn't encountered that probem before ,and it seems quite unique to covid19

My point is also that in NZ, you won't currently be tested unless you also have a cough or something else respiratory related. Yet this case only had the loss of taste and smell, and no other symptoms and they tested positive! You only need a few of these to be diagnosed when we are out of level 4, and it could spread. Also we aren't doing as many tests as we could be doing, so why have the capacity to do the testing, when we aren't using it? Also the DG did say today that as a result of fewer tests being down, they are relaxing the requirements of testing, so anyone who has any respiratory conditions will now get a test, but what about the loss of taste / smell?

On2or3wheels

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#2461176 14-Apr-2020 15:56

I see it took another reporter to come along & fix that biased Stuff article.

It now lists "Bridie Whitton" as well at the top.

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tdgeek

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#2461182 14-Apr-2020 15:57

mattwnz:

Also the DG did say today that as a result of fewer tests being done, they are relaxing the requirements of testing, so anyone who has any respiratory conditions will now get a test, but what about the loss of taste / smell?

Makes sense. I feel the low number of tests will continue as thats how many present for one, plus the Easter effect. So it is time to test any stragglers with a low threshold.

dejadeadnz

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#2461183 14-Apr-2020 15:58

frankv:

Yes... 15 years total at 2 institutions, 4 or 5 if you count name changes and merges.

In light of that background, then I am pretty surprised by the out-sized weight you've attached to the theoretical enshrinement of academic freedom in judging the worthiness or otherwise of those six people's opinions, especially when that question is considered alongside issues of the apparent lack of any kind of relevant expertise on the part of the law professor, the disgraceful record of their institutions in this matter, and the utter devastation wrought by similar approaches as they have proposed elsewhere.

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#2461184 14-Apr-2020 15:59

On2or3wheels:

I see it took another reporter to come along & fix that biased Stuff article.

It now lists "Bridie Whitton" as well at the top.

Yep. When I read it, it was just about the 6 experts idea. It still is, but its been added to to by a few doses of common sense. Journo's to the rescue on this occasion

mattwnz

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#2461186 14-Apr-2020 16:00

tdgeek:

The other key is that it seems almost every new case is a hanger on of an existing case. Same bubble, close contact. We dont seem to be seeing any that are "I've been in my bubble all i've done is supermarkets, and now Ive got COVID-19" The CT we dread, doesnt seem to get any traction.

Theoretically though, shouldn't we should be starting to see zero new cases, as we are now past the 14 day incubation period of the virus? I understand the 28 day level 4 lockdown period is to account for 2 full virus cycles. Although because we only enforced mandatory quarantine a few days ago, some of those new cases are likely from people returning to NZ, or from people existing people who were infected by them, inside their bubble. But we also have the problem of places where there are large bubbles. In large bubbles like resthomes, hostels, and other facilities with lots of people, the virus could spread be spread for a far longer periodof time between people, than in a small family home bubble, where all people tend to be in closer contact, and there is less of a chain.

This is exactly why I would like to see a breakdown of cases from the quarantine hotels, and also from resthomes, and other facilities. I think resthomes will all stay locked down in level 4 for months, due to the size of their bubble, and the longer potential chain of transmission and time it takes for the virus to move along that chain. I also worry about hostels (eg one that had a party in it) that have reported to have bubbles as large as 20.

mattwnz

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#2461193 14-Apr-2020 16:03

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Also the DG did say today that as a result of fewer tests being done, they are relaxing the requirements of testing, so anyone who has any respiratory conditions will now get a test, but what about the loss of taste / smell?

Makes sense. I feel the low number of tests will continue as thats how many present for one, plus the Easter effect. So it is time to test any stragglers with a low threshold.

I agree. It seems that the next step is trying to work out who they should now test, in addition to those with symptoms. Random testing of people with no symptoms or connection to other cases is apparently a bit of a waste of time.

I have noticed over the easter weekend and today, a lot of people on social media platforms saying some pretty disturbing and disrespectful things directed at older people, and saying that there is no reason to remain in lockdown or extend it beyond 4 weeks.. Many fail to address that it also kills young and healthy people including nurses and doctors treating them. Some people making these comments likely may have vested interests.

But this is an article I read about why it is important that level 4 is used to eliminate the virus, and it can't be allowed to fail

Too-short 'failed lockdown' would be worse outcome for economy in long run, bank warns

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120997347/tooshort-failed-lockdown-would-be-worse-outcome-for-economy-in-long-run-bank-warns

neb

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#2461194 14-Apr-2020 16:08

mattwnz:
I agree. It seems that the next step is trying to work out who they should now test, in addition to those with symptoms. Random testing of people with no symptoms or connection to other cases is apparently a bit of a waste of time.

You also got the problem of the base rate fallacy, which statisticians are terrible at explaining to non-statisticians. Ahh, the psychologists know how to explain it.

cshwone

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#2461196 14-Apr-2020 16:09

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters

It looks like 14 of today's 17 new cases came from known clusters.

tdgeek

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#2461205 14-Apr-2020 16:14

mattwnz:

Theoretically though, shouldn't we should be starting to see zero new cases, as we are now past the 14 day incubation period of the virus? I understand the 28 day level 4 lockdown period is to account for 2 full virus cycles. Although because we only enforced mandatory quarantine a few days ago, some of those new cases are likely from people returning to NZ, or from people existing people who were infected by them, inside their bubble. But we also have the problem of places where there are large bubbles. In large bubbles like resthomes, hostels, and other facilities with lots of people, the virus could spread be spread for a far longer periodof time between people, than in a small family home bubble, where all people tend to be in closer contact, and there is less of a chain.

This is exactly why I would like to see a breakdown of cases from the quarantine hotels, and also from resthomes, and other facilities. I think resthomes will all stay locked down in level 4 for months, due to the size of their bubble, and the longer potential chain of transmission and time it takes for the virus to move along that chain. I also worry about hostels (eg one that had a party in it) that have reported to have bubbles as large as 20.

Theoretically yes, exactly. But as we still get cases from known sources, that extends the period that the Level 4 should be in place (for them) But those cases are isolated. While the lag effect stretches it out quite a bit, the lockdown certainly has changed the game. We may be in a mopping up phase soon. Fully agree on rest homes and I'd like mass gatherings to be 5 WITH distancing etc.

We "seem" to have no Community Transmission. Well, they say 2%, and those like all of us are still in lockdown. If people with symptoms ask for a test, well, theoretically the incidence of free roaming infections should be very very low. One goes to the authorities, that captures the close contacts, and tidy that up. Sounds good if you say it fast, but it now appears to be very viable, and less of a hope.

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