2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2464050 17-Apr-2020 10:38

tdgeek:

blackjack17:

Y10 is 13-14 with 14 being the "legal" age kids can be left at home alone or in charge of younger siblings

And younger kids have one class, one teacher, which is easier to manage bubble wise. Rather than the kids having periods during the day with different teachers and pupils in each of them

Depends on the school these days - some don't work that way any more - are more open plan/mixed.

I think more data is needed. It appears that young kids not only don't get C19 symptoms, but are far less likely to get infected in the first place, and assumed from that to probably not be the feared super-spreaders that was a serious concern weeks/months ago.

I hope we don't make a serious mistake on that by making decisions based on poor data.

There's another study, this time from Holland, indicating that ~>10x as many from the general population who donated blood are C-19 sero-positive than have been diagnosed. Something weird is going on. The serology testing is either flawed - or the disease is very poorly understood, or both, as the data coming out strongly conflicts with epidemiology of the disease in countries like NZ, Aus, Korea etc - where contact tracing has been successful in reducing spread. That simply could not happen if ~90% of cases were undiagnosed and those cases were infectious/shedding virus. So either the serology test is picking up false positives perhaps because some/many people have similar antibodies from other past infections, or a lot of people get C-19 and are not getting symptoms and are not passing the infection on.

DS248

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#2464054 17-Apr-2020 10:46

Interesting article https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316?query=RP.

All pregnant women arriving at New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York for delivery between March 22 and April 4 were tested for Covid-19 on admission. Of the total of 215 women, 33 tested positive. Only four (1.9%) of those were symptomatic at time of testing, the remaining 29 (13.5%) being asymptomatic. Total of 15.4% of pregnant women arriving at hospital with Covid-19.

Three of the asymptomatic Covid-19 positive women developed fever while in hospital (average 2 days in hospital) and one of the initially Covid-19 negative women developed symptoms after delivery and was confirmed Covid-19 positive three days after the initial negative test result.

Situation in NY is much worse than here of course but the fact that only 12% of Covid-19 positive pregnant women had symptoms at time of testing is a bit disconcerting.

Fred99

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#2464057 17-Apr-2020 10:57

DS248:

Interesting article https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316?query=RP.

All pregnant women arriving at New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York for delivery between March 22 and April 4 were tested for Covid-19 on admission. Of the total of 215 women, 33 tested positive. Only four (1.9%) of those were symptomatic at time of testing, the remaining 29 (13.5%) being asymptomatic. Total of 15.4% of pregnant women arriving at hospital with Covid-19.

Three of the asymptomatic Covid-19 positive women developed fever while in hospital (average 2 days in hospital) and one of the initially Covid-19 negative women developed symptoms after delivery and was confirmed Covid-19 positive three days after the initial negative test result.

Situation in NY is much worse than here of course but the fact that only 12% of Covid-19 positive pregnant women had symptoms at time of testing is a bit disconcerting.

Very weird things go on with pregnant women's immune systems - it's a poor population sample from which to attempt to draw any conclusions about anything except in relation to pregnant women and C-19.

Maybe today we'll get some indication here from (semi) random PCR testing in supermarket car parks. I think they did 300 in Queenstown - considered to be a high risk area for undiagnosed infection. By national average of confirmed active cases, the chances of them finding a positive are very low indeed.

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#2464063 17-Apr-2020 11:06

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ezbee

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#2464065 17-Apr-2020 11:18

Silent but Deadly

This is probably why lock-downs have been the weapon of choice .
Symptomatic or not you are locked down.

If length of lock-down is long enough you have infected your bubble buddies and either recovered ,
or someone has enough symptoms that they got tested and your mini cluster discovered.

Thus the proposal of 4-6 weeks and level 3 still being restrictive to shake out the asymptomatic.

Healthcare workers are still at risk though as their challenging patents take much longer to recover and cease to be infectious.
Understanding that N95 is not scuba gear , 5% of whatever may still get through, but the odds are heavily stacked in your favour.
Healthcare workers even following all measures can still catch this , its not Magical protection.
Its a bit concerning that boards are holding back footwear covers , Wuhan ID this as a big early failing for them.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/04/08/2003734196

Edit to add N95 detail, wonders of electrostatics , its not just physical barrier but attracts charged particles.
Yep cleaning them is a thing if done properly.

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#2464075 17-Apr-2020 11:31

Fred99:

Depends on the school these days - some don't work that way any more - are more open plan/mixed.

I think more data is needed. It appears that young kids not only don't get C19 symptoms, but are far less likely to get infected in the first place, and assumed from that to probably not be the feared super-spreaders that was a serious concern weeks/months ago.

I hope we don't make a serious mistake on that by making decisions based on poor data.

There's another study, this time from Holland, indicating that ~>10x as many from the general population who donated blood are C-19 sero-positive than have been diagnosed. Something weird is going on. The serology testing is either flawed - or the disease is very poorly understood, or both, as the data coming out strongly conflicts with epidemiology of the disease in countries like NZ, Aus, Korea etc - where contact tracing has been successful in reducing spread. That simply could not happen if ~90% of cases were undiagnosed and those cases were infectious/shedding virus. So either the serology test is picking up false positives perhaps because some/many people have similar antibodies from other past infections, or a lot of people get C-19 and are not getting symptoms and are not passing the infection on.

Agree.What I see anecdotally even just from the daily update, is that it does seem to spread very easily. So its hard to see the bold part of your post being what happened. Coronavirus already exists, so the former point, italicised, may be possible?

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#2464079 17-Apr-2020 11:36

Re my previous post, I realise that data from different areas/studies show widely varying proportions of Covid-19 positive cases being asymptomatic (some of which have been referred to in this thread). But tests of all women arriving at a hospital for delivery has a certain degree of generality, at least for younger adults in regions with high rates of infection.

Hong Kong provides another example, possibly more relevant to NZ? In the seven days 9-15 Apr, 16 (35%) of 45 imported Covid-19 positive cases were asymptomatic on testing. Restricting to imported cases means it is presumably a 100% sample (since it is likely all arrivals from overseas during this period were tested). Also, 4/11 (36%) of the remaining Covid-19 positive cases were asymptomatic on testing. So not really different for their 'local' cases (asymptomatic cases tested presumably due to contact tracing). In the above 'local' includes their 'local case', 'close contact of local case' and 'possibly local' categories. None of the 56 cases in the last seven days are classified as a 'Close contact of imported case', likely because all arrivals from overseas are tested and any found positive, quarantined?

A significant pool of asymptomatic infected people will be a risk when dropping from L4 to L3. Given where we are at currently, an extra week at L4 may be needed to avoid losing what has been achieved at a very high cost. Then decide 2 days before the end of the extended period whether to drop to L3. I personally do not think the extension should automatically be two weeks. It is imperative to get the economy restarting as soon as it is safe. As has been pointed out, the severe economic impact will have serious health impacts and in itself be a cause of excess deaths. An extra week will allow a better assessment of our situation. The start of surveillance surveys only yesterday does not seem to provide enough time for a decision to drop to L3 next week.

kingdragonfly

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#2464083 17-Apr-2020 11:50

This may have already been posted from "Our World In Data"

The total number of tests performed or people tested so far
Tests per day

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

ezbee

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#2464091 17-Apr-2020 12:05

Fred99:

There's another study, this time from Holland, indicating that ~>10x as many from the general population who donated blood are C-19 sero-positive than have been diagnosed. Something weird is going on. The serology testing is either flawed - or the disease is very poorly understood, or both, as the data coming out strongly conflicts with epidemiology of the disease in countries like NZ, Aus, Korea etc - where contact tracing has been successful in reducing spread. That simply could not happen if ~90% of cases were undiagnosed and those cases were infectious/shedding virus. So either the serology test is picking up false positives perhaps because some/many people have similar antibodies from other past infections, or a lot of people get C-19 and are not getting symptoms and are not passing the infection on.

This does align with something that RadioNZ favorite 'Naked Scientist' on Kim hills program said in one of her interviews in passing.

That at asymptomatic stage you are probably not shedding much virus .

You probably need to look at these things from view of statistician.
Close long term contact odds catch up with contacts , short and more distant contact odds are tipped the other way.
Odds tip each way depending on how much virus they are shedding.
Once people are alert , odds shift again as no one is hanging around anyone coughing or looking a bit red faced and under the weather.

However its also true that subtleties of this virus are not well known. The closest relative SARS had research into treatments and no doubt other studies canned when it ended . Money dried up to investigate.

We know lots about other conditions as they have been around for many years for knowledge to accumulate.

Fred99

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#2464097 17-Apr-2020 12:07

DS248:

Re my previous post, I realise that data from different areas/studies show widely varying proportions of Covid-19 positive cases being asymptomatic (some of which have been referred to in this thread). But tests of all women arriving at a hospital for delivery has a certain degree of generality, at least for younger adults in regions with high rates of infection.

Yes and no. They also would be expected to have frequent close physical contact with assorted healthcare workers not using PPE prior to admission to give birth, close social contact with other pregnant women, and nothing at all is known about their susceptibility to infection (ie from a lower viral load) or how differently their immune system responds. Peak case demographic has also shifted in the US, from the 18-44 demographic to the 44-65 age group now the peak, presumably like here the young socially mobile travellers were over-represented in the early spread.

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#2464105 17-Apr-2020 12:34

shk292:
vexxxboy:

how many surfers have you heard of off that need a search and rescue operation to find them, Yachts on the other hand

You obviously missed the news reporting of the surfers getting rescued at Sumner in the first few days of lockdown

Yachts on the other hand, used safely in inshore and coastal waters are inherently safe and have multiple forms of propulsion, good communications and safety equipment

I only saw surfers being told by police to get out of the water. No rescue.

Um,.... communications are only valuable if you have an expectation that someone will come to your rescue if you get into trouble.

I think part of the trouble with yachts is enforcement. If a yacht disappears around the point and then heads off out to sea, it's hard to detect and prevent. And you run into the difficulty of defining what inshore and coastal means.

The other part is that things go wrong, e.g. fire, whether fuel for the motor or cooking, resulting in rescue needed. And running into rocks, or weather beyond the capability of the boat or crew. Or injury from ropes and pulleys and booms and so on.

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#2464117 17-Apr-2020 12:47

DS248:
A minor qualification re the '15' new cases yesterday. The MOH website shows the Marist College cluster dropped from 93 to 92 cases on 16 Apr. A footnote explains that "A decrease in numbers is due to probable cases being reclassified as not a case" (note plural 'cases'?). There was a net increase of 15 cases reported for the day. But since at least one (& possibly more) earlier probable cases are now considered not COVID-19 infections, it seems there must have been at least 16 new cases today, not 15?

No, I think the "new cases" is not net. That is the new cases identified, mostly on the day before the announcement. The cases details spreadsheet is amended to delete the probable that turned out not to be a case, so that retrospectively the count for a given day is decreased. But no count of "probables cleared" is announced.

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#2464120 17-Apr-2020 12:59

Asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic
Just because someone does not have symptoms at the time of testing does not imply they are an asymptomatic case. The testing is capable of detecting the virus before symptom present. Including pre-symptomatic cases into asymptomatic cases will give a false indication.

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#2464143 17-Apr-2020 13:28

Today eight new cases, and sadly two deaths.

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#2464155 17-Apr-2020 13:49

Certainly very sad.

8 cases, all from known causes, is a great result. 0 CT. If the other half of the Queenstown sentinel testing is also negative, that would be great news.Interesting is that when they do this its not publicised. Otherwise you get a target audience that is not the target audience they want, they want a typical random sample in a snapshot in time.

Im picking a hint to extend L4 in todays update

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