2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2473150 29-Apr-2020 09:27

neb:
neb: For more depressing news, 'No Evidence' Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says. Although it does support most countries' position of not gambling on the herd immunity approach.

Anyone know what this does this do for the prospects of a vaccine if exposure doesn't build immunity?

Imo this is a complex answer and depends which mechanism is used, and depends exactly what any particular vaccine chooses as it's target(s). There are several in development.

Fred99

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#2473154 29-Apr-2020 09:35

gzt: There are several in development.

There are several already in human clinical trials, probably hundreds "in development".

Not being talked about much is what happens if by luck the best vaccine happens to have been discovered by researchers at Trump University, the potential profit could buy a million solid gold toilet bowls.

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#2473156 29-Apr-2020 09:38

Even in a hypothetical case where a vaccination was effective for a period as many vaccines are - even a very short period would be a massive advantage. Even as short as two weeks would have potential to prevent further loss of life in an age care facility for example.

debo

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#2473159 29-Apr-2020 09:42

tdgeek:

The reason we are where we are now is due to the lockdown. From what the PM has hinted and the control the DG has stated, its highly likely we will be at L2 in two weeks. Do we want a short term hit (where massive wage subsidies and freely available bank loans for cashflow exist) and get back to work sooner, or should we take a punt and make it free reign then go back to L3 on and off? Its better to have a rapid fix and back to normal than a slow burn for the rest of the year. Or should we have said, its only old people that die so lets ignore the virus? I assume you feel that L4 was worth it? If so, we will probably be back to normal in 2 weeks. And employers still have 5 weeks of wage subsidy, even though the business is now BAU. I guess we could have gone L3 from day one, and businesses are still affected and will be for the rest of the year. L4 didn't wipe the virus out during its course, all through we were getting cases after cases. God knows how that would have gone if we placed the 5 week economy first. We would be discussing it till Xmas as it would have got out of control. Clusters at Bunnings, clusters at Farmers, clusters at tennis courts.

What? There is absolutely no evidence of that. Australia did not go into a level 4 lockdown and they are tracking similar to us. Is Ozzy covering up 10s/100s of thousands of deaths? No, i don't think so. We would be in the same health situation with or with out level 4 lockdown, except now our economy is a lot worse off.

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#2473164 29-Apr-2020 09:53

debo:

No, i don't think so. We would be in the same health situation with or with out level 4 lockdown, except now our economy is a lot worse off.

you have no evidence of this either

its a hypertheotical, we could be 10 or even 100 times worse, you just dont know

all you can do is sit in your armchair and speculate. and non of that is helpful i the slightest.

we choose our path they chose theirs, they may have been lucky, we may have been overly safe.

its worked and now we have to move forward.

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#2473165 29-Apr-2020 09:54

debo:

tdgeek:

The reason we are where we are now is due to the lockdown. From what the PM has hinted and the control the DG has stated, its highly likely we will be at L2 in two weeks. Do we want a short term hit (where massive wage subsidies and freely available bank loans for cashflow exist) and get back to work sooner, or should we take a punt and make it free reign then go back to L3 on and off? Its better to have a rapid fix and back to normal than a slow burn for the rest of the year. Or should we have said, its only old people that die so lets ignore the virus? I assume you feel that L4 was worth it? If so, we will probably be back to normal in 2 weeks. And employers still have 5 weeks of wage subsidy, even though the business is now BAU. I guess we could have gone L3 from day one, and businesses are still affected and will be for the rest of the year. L4 didn't wipe the virus out during its course, all through we were getting cases after cases. God knows how that would have gone if we placed the 5 week economy first. We would be discussing it till Xmas as it would have got out of control. Clusters at Bunnings, clusters at Farmers, clusters at tennis courts.

What? There is absolutely no evidence of that. Australia did not go into a level 4 lockdown and they are tracking similar to us. Is Ozzy covering up 10s/100s of thousands of deaths? No, i don't think so. We would be in the same health situation with or with out level 4 lockdown, except now our economy is a lot worse off.

So no evidence means thats its incorrect? If you feel that L4 made no difference thats your opinion. You must know more than MoH and WHO. Check Sweden

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#2473168 29-Apr-2020 09:56

debo:

tdgeek:

The reason we are where we are now is due to the lockdown. From what the PM has hinted and the control the DG has stated, its highly likely we will be at L2 in two weeks. Do we want a short term hit (where massive wage subsidies and freely available bank loans for cashflow exist) and get back to work sooner, or should we take a punt and make it free reign then go back to L3 on and off? Its better to have a rapid fix and back to normal than a slow burn for the rest of the year. Or should we have said, its only old people that die so lets ignore the virus? I assume you feel that L4 was worth it? If so, we will probably be back to normal in 2 weeks. And employers still have 5 weeks of wage subsidy, even though the business is now BAU. I guess we could have gone L3 from day one, and businesses are still affected and will be for the rest of the year. L4 didn't wipe the virus out during its course, all through we were getting cases after cases. God knows how that would have gone if we placed the 5 week economy first. We would be discussing it till Xmas as it would have got out of control. Clusters at Bunnings, clusters at Farmers, clusters at tennis courts.

What? There is absolutely no evidence of that. Australia did not go into a level 4 lockdown and they are tracking similar to us. Is Ozzy covering up 10s/100s of thousands of deaths? No, i don't think so. We would be in the same health situation with or with out level 4 lockdown, except now our economy is a lot worse off.

No - you've made a fatal error of comparing NZ and Aus. They are different countries and the outbreaks had different characteristics.

What I highlighted above - you've stated as fact but of course you do not know. You're making something up to suit your biased belief.

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#2473170 29-Apr-2020 10:01

It looks like we are moving to the blame stage. We didnt need to do L4. So we did L4 now its a problem. If we did the supposedly better Sweden model and cases are high, now its a problem. Blame game.

debo

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#2473175 29-Apr-2020 10:10

tdgeek:

It looks like we are moving to the blame stage. We didnt need to do L4. So we did L4 now its a problem. If we did the supposedly better Sweden model and cases are high, now its a problem. Blame game.

There is a threat to go back into level 4. If we don't learn from our mistake then we will just repeat it all over again. I'm not trying to look backward and 'blame' people, i'm saying we should learn from Australia and do better next time.

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#2473177 29-Apr-2020 10:16

debo:

What? There is absolutely no evidence of that. Australia did not go into a level 4 lockdown and they are tracking similar to us. Is Ozzy covering up 10s/100s of thousands of deaths? No, i don't think so. We would be in the same health situation with or with out level 4 lockdown, except now our economy is a lot worse off.

Facts are inconvenient, episode #45556677:

Don't make things up

New academic analysis shows the level 4 lockdown in New Zealand not only allowed the country to catch up to Australia, but surpass it in terms of per capita Covid-19 cases.

The daily case rate in New Zealand has been only 59 per cent that of Australia since the start of a 33-day lockdown, according to Otago University Associate Professor Brian Cox, a medically-trained epidemiologist and specialist in public health.

Now given that you can't get fundamental facts right, no one should take your "analysis" of the relative cost and benefits of the respective approach seriously. The brutal reality is that given our differing circumstances, including our relatively poorly resourced public health units (not to be confused with the public health system at large), taking the same approach as Australia could have gotten very ugly.

Fred99

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#2473180 29-Apr-2020 10:19

debo:

tdgeek:

It looks like we are moving to the blame stage. We didnt need to do L4. So we did L4 now its a problem. If we did the supposedly better Sweden model and cases are high, now its a problem. Blame game.

There is a threat to go back into level 4. If we don't learn from our mistake then we will just repeat it all over again. I'm not trying to look backward and 'blame' people, i'm saying we should learn from Australia and do better next time.

Well there'd be nothing more certain to sabotage the economy than people listening to your advice that we'd gone too hard as "good reason" to excuse themselves from what's needed for level 3 to succeed.

Then you'd have the same certain politician who said what you're saying on TV this morning, ignoring their own hypocrisy and telling the nation that we'd stuffed it up.

You're still comparing Aus and NZ. That's stupid.

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#2473183 29-Apr-2020 10:25

I think this applies to the last few posts:

"I dream of a world where the truth is what shapes people's politics, rather than politics shaping what people think is true." (Neil deGrasse Tyson).

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Fred99

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#2473189 29-Apr-2020 10:38

For a comparison of NZ and Aus compare NSW clusters with NZ:

If you exclude "imported cases" and hospital and rest home clusters (because they're inherently more easily traced and contained - not saying it's "easy"), then:

NZ had 8 clusters with average size 50 cases (13 - 98)

NSW had 5 clusters with average size (*less than) 11 cases (1 - 20)

NSW population ~ 7.5 million vs NZ ~ 5 million. NSW was (and still is) the most affected state in Aus.

NZ had a far more difficult situation to deal with than Aus. That's why we had to go harder.

(*NSW health department provides less information about cluster size than NZ MoH. They stated cluster size presented in ranges of 1-10, 11-20 etc.)

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx#clusters

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters

Rikkitic

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#2473191 29-Apr-2020 10:46

A few people here, not only the above poster (not Fred99), seem to have a need to put the worst possible spin on things. Instead of celebrating all the things the government and health services have got right, there is complaining that maybe the borders weren't closed early enough, or maybe the lockdown wasn't locked enough, or maybe the lockdown did more harm than good, or whatever. All things considered, I think the authorities have been doing a brilliant job in very difficult unprecedented circumstances. A better comparison would be with America than with Australia. That seems to present a fairly good picture of what might have happened had we not done what we did, and what might yet happen if the brakes go off completely.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2473193 29-Apr-2020 10:49

This Burger Fuel outlet should be told to close until we get to Covid Alert zero. Absolute idiots.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121325810/coronavirus-police-intervene-after-large-crowd-congregates-outside-burger-joint

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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