2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2476575 4-May-2020 18:57

Recent paper on effectiveness of mask use by the community, healthcare workers and sick patients.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020748920301139?via%3Dihub

Results

A total of 19 randomised controlled trials were included in this study – 8 in community settings, 6 in healthcare settings and 5 as source control. Most of these randomised controlled trials used different interventions and outcome measures. In the community, masks appeared to be more effective than hand hygiene alone, and both together are more protective. Randomised controlled trials in health care workers showed that respirators, if worn continually during a shift, were effective but not if worn intermittently. Medical masks were not effective, and cloth masks even less effective. When used by sick patients randomised controlled trials suggested protection of well contacts.

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#2476584 4-May-2020 19:14

tdgeek:

I agree with what you say. My concern is that the level of non compliance now is higher. The Level is lower, so thats a double effect. Double edged sword. Compounding. While there is much less chance of a community infection, if there was, its non traceable if it involved a flouter/socialiser. Then we go back to another 13 cases in Whanganui, another 19 cases in Whanganui. Flouters are non traceable

This for me is the most anxious time. We have a situation where it is political and economic suicide to go back to Level 4, and an increasingly relaxed population who won't be able to ratchet up the discipline at short notice without the severe impact of a Level 4 forcing them to take it seriously. There's also going to be a swathe of people who think Level 4 didn't work the first time, so it probably won't work now. Why bother?

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#2476601 4-May-2020 19:50

"A 'travel bubble' between New Zealand and Australia could be a model for the future" - article on CNN.com.

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#2476677 4-May-2020 23:58

freitasm:

"A 'travel bubble' between New Zealand and Australia could be a model for the future" - article on CNN.com.

Both countries that form a bubble IMO have to both have the same objectives, and be on the same level. NZs objective was elimination and get it down to zero new cases. Australias isn't . Australia also still appear to have community transmission occurring, and if that is occurring, then without the stronger lockdown that NZ sacrificed billions of dollars for, it can be difficult to stop that silent community transmission occurring. NZers on a whole have made more sacrifices due to a harder lockdown than Oz, in order to try an eliminate it. Australia s lockdown was about flattening the curve to slow it down. It looks like it has probably performed better than they intended it to. But they did still plan on being in some form of significant lockdown for 6 months and mothballing their economy during this time, which isn't something NZ planned. WE were about going hard for a shorter period of time to eliminate it, so we could then get back to a normal domestic economy, without of any lockdown, which is entirely possible

I would be happy with a bubble if both countries were certified as having eliminated it, by the WHO. Otherwise I think it is going to need a 14 day quarantine period at one end. A rugby league did that today, and it seemed to be a sensible compromise. Although a bit odd IMO that a sports team qualified for this travel exemption during this time.

I not that the Deputy PM said a week or so ago that elimination in NZ wasn't possible, when he first brought up this Australian bubble idea, which doesn't seem to align with our objective IMO. It is interesting the Deputy PM was asked if we shouldn't form a bubble with China, based on them trying to also eliminate it and being able to get down just a few cases like Oz, and they are one of NZ biggest trading partners and significant to NZs tourism.

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#2476680 5-May-2020 00:24

This is a really good interview, comparing COVID and Swine Flu, and is relevant for NZ, and how it is actually possible to stamp it out in NZ. (eliminate down to zero cases)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhtTTar908I

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#2476688 5-May-2020 07:03

Ge0rge: "Weve done it! Zero cases of Covid-19 reported in NZ today!" - Radio preview of TV3 news headlines at 1800 tonight.

Now, tell me again why you are surprised people aren't taking lvl3 as seriously as they should be?

Tested cases, not actual cases. Or can we now go to Level 0 as there are no cases? Our cases lately range between 0 and 9.

Id like to hear the exact basis that they decide there is no CT as that is the only metric that matters from a change level point of view

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#2476689 5-May-2020 07:09

Paul1977:

tdgeek:

I agree with what you say. My concern is that the level of non compliance now is higher. The Level is lower, so thats a double effect. Double edged sword. Compounding. While there is much less chance of a community infection, if there was, its non traceable if it involved a flouter/socialiser. Then we go back to another 13 cases in Whanganui, another 19 cases in Whanganui. Flouters are non traceable

I agree, however if people are going to flout the rules in a 2 week Level 3, they are going to flout them in a 4 week Level 3 as well (if not more so).

If they extend Level 3 on the basis of flouters, they need to also introduce very strict penalties for non-compliance. Otherwise we'll be in Level 3 forever.

100%. I have no doubt that actual cases , as distinct from reported are very low, so its time to move. IMHO flouters are the only issue now, they are a major leak and untraceable.How can you ring fence a couple of CT cases in Whanganui (which before L4 was the end game. Under control, manage local outbreaks) when you cannot ring fence flouters. Ring fencing compliant people is like locking your door to keep honest people out .

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#2476707 5-May-2020 08:26

GV27:

tdgeek:

I agree with what you say. My concern is that the level of non compliance now is higher. The Level is lower, so thats a double effect. Double edged sword. Compounding. While there is much less chance of a community infection, if there was, its non traceable if it involved a flouter/socialiser. Then we go back to another 13 cases in Whanganui, another 19 cases in Whanganui. Flouters are non traceable

This for me is the most anxious time. We have a situation where it is political and economic suicide to go back to Level 4, and an increasingly relaxed population who won't be able to ratchet up the discipline at short notice without the severe impact of a Level 4 forcing them to take it seriously. There's also going to be a swathe of people who think Level 4 didn't work the first time, so it probably won't work now. Why bother?

Probably. The success isnt now down to MoH or the Govt or the majority of the people who comply. Its up to the flouters and party goers to spread any infections that are out there. As these people cant be controlled, may as well just go for Level 2 and see what happens. Flouting occurs in L3 so makes no difference. Fines will have zero impact. If anyone wants to catch up with mates they will just go to the mates place, back yard, and mix. Any virus out there now will thrive, its getting colder. What happens if there are outbreaks? Govt is damned? Yep, its a blame game

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#2476715 5-May-2020 08:45

Rikkitic:

Instead of faffing about with returning to level 4 or 3.5 or anything else like that if people ignore the rules, why not just actually enforce the rules with a zero tolerance approach? No more warnings and any transgression, however slight, immediately gets stomped on with fines, home detention (with monitoring bands), supervised isolation, even jail. Some people really are thick and just need to have the message hammered home. This is the level, here are the rules, these are the penalties. Put out a massive police presence, round up a few kids who think it doesn't apply to them, and compliance will go up pretty quickly.

I'm not sure NZ is at the stage where we're jailing people for 'being thick' yet. Or 'rounding up kids' for that matter.

Rikkitic

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#2476729 5-May-2020 09:13

Earbanean:

I'm not sure viruse NZ is at the stage where we're jailing people for 'being thick' yet. Or 'rounding up kids' for that matter.

Either people take this seriously, or they don't. If the choice is between a temporary reduction of civil liberties and the reemergence of the virus, which is the preferred option? Civil liberties have already been temporarily reduced. The right to travel and congregate has been curbed. In any case, I'm not talking about new restrictions, just proper enforcement of existing ones.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

DS248

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#2476738 5-May-2020 09:40

Recent review paper on effectiveness of mask use by the community, healthcare workers and sick patients.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020748920301139?via%3Dihub

Results

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#2476745 5-May-2020 10:00

The Washington Post - The 5-Minute Fix: An ominous coronavirus report as states reopen

today

A draft government report obtained by The Washington Post on Monday estimates a big jump in daily deaths from coronavirus in the next month.

Right now, an average of 1,388 are dying each day in the U.S. By June 1, this draft report estimates 3,000 people a day could be dying.

“The document predicts a sharp increase in both cases and deaths beginning about May 14,” The Post reports, which is actually around the time a separate model, prepared by a Trump adviser, predicts deaths will go to zero.

This new, much more dire estimate comes as Trump says most states should start opening up - and most are.

The new estimates were drafted by an epidemiology expert at Johns Hopkins University who told The Post the modeling shown in the report wasn’t complete, but who said things could “get out of control very quickly” depending on different reopening scenarios. ...

Here are [US] coronavirus deaths reported per day [to 04 May] :

(click to view)

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#2476782 5-May-2020 10:12

In contradiction to a tabloid link posted here (and removed) that claimed a "leaked report from the five eyes confirm virus from a lab" a couple of days ago, a more reliable source states the opposite:

"Five Eyes network contradicts theory Covid-19 leaked from lab"

There is no current evidence to suggest that coronavirus leaked from a Chinese research laboratory, intelligence sources have told the Guardian, contradicting recent White House claims that there is growing proof this is how the pandemic began.

The sources also insisted that a “15-page dossier” highlighted by the Australian Daily Telegraph which accused China of a deadly cover up was not culled from intelligence from the Five Eyes network, an alliance between the UK, US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

British and other Five Eyes agencies do believe that Beijing has not necessarily been open about how coronavirus initially spread in Wuhan at the turn of the year. But they are nervous about getting involved in an escalating international situation.

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#2476791 5-May-2020 10:33

Re end of local transmission. This is the HK government CDB take on when it can be concluded that local transmissions have stopped.

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2020/05/20200504/20200504_171023_951.html?type=category&name=covid19

Its Communicable Disease Branch Head Dr Chuang Shuk-kwan told a media briefing this afternoon that the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days and that the centre will consider that local transmissions have stopped after two incubation periods.

She said: "Although we have already observed one incubation period and the situation is getting better now, we cannot conclude that the local transmission chain has been cut.

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#2476793 5-May-2020 10:39

DS248:

Re end of local transmission. This is the HK government CDB take on when it can be concluded that local transmissions have stopped.

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2020/05/20200504/20200504_171023_951.html?type=category&name=covid19

Its Communicable Disease Branch Head Dr Chuang Shuk-kwan told a media briefing this afternoon that the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days and that the centre will consider that local transmissions have stopped after two incubation periods.

She said: "Although we have already observed one incubation period and the situation is getting better now, we cannot conclude that the local transmission chain has been cut.

Thats assuming that all infections are isolating, and have not spread to others, if they have spread to others reset the clock over and over. Thats the problem.

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