2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2429507 1-Mar-2020 09:28

Mahon:

tdgeek:

The reaction here, as in supermarkets is that we got 1 case, then it was 23, then it was 89. Small country, not living in dense housing, people will now take more care with self isolation, its unlikely to spiral like Iran has. But incoming from the other infected countries need to be told, not asked to self isolate. That guy that shut his shop, even said that all you get asked is have you been to China. That's it he said. While the Govt is being good with advisories, its still all voluntary, if you can be bothered.

We cant stop it...the wave is coming just like the winter flu season. Its way too late now to try and contain it. Best use of public money is to prepare for the isolation and treatment of those who will be come seriously ill(this could become a mammoth task for NZ with so few facilities). There is just way too much people movement across borders.

The other thing we must prepare for is the financial fallout.

Are you expecting waves of infections? Like Iran for example?

Fred99

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#2429511 1-Mar-2020 09:55

Rikkitic:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/28/i-have-coronavirus-so-far-it-isnt-that-bad/

If I were at home with similar symptoms, I probably would have gone to work as usual.

And there's the reason why - from an otherwise apparently "good news" story - this disease isn't going to be stopped by voluntary means.

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#2429527 1-Mar-2020 10:03

Sidestep:

Yes, he's cleverly thrown Pence a Hospital Pass there. From Trump's Wednesday live briefing:

"Because of all we've done, the risk to the American people remains very low."
"And again, when you have 15, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

*puts Vice President Pence in charge of COVID-19 response - which the CDC said is almost certain to spread*

"He's very good and I think -- and he's really very expert at the field."

This is the guy, who, as Governor of Indiana in the state's 2015 health crisis used prayer - instead of needle exchanges - to stop the spread of HIV..
Who's anti-science, has said he doesn't believe smoking kills people - and voted against the FDA being able to regulate tobacco products.

Luckily he's got Trump to give him guidance:

On Thursday Trump said - it's "like a miracle, it will disappear" and that "nobody really knows."
On Friday he blamed fear of Democratic candidates for the fall in the stockmarket, and said "the Democrat policy of open borders is a direct threat to the health and wellbeing of all Americans"

Today, in Washington State, the first person in the US died from COVID-19

Last week I read somewhere that Humpty Trumpy had stripped millions from the Health, Sciences & Environment budgets, including the CDC but I read yesterday he is now demanding Congress release $2.4 Billion to fight this virus and the Democrats have countered requesting it should be $8.5 Billion.

Instead of listening to public health and medical experts he has been downplaying the potential impact of the virus for over a month or thereabouts. Well, from another item I have read in the last month, that is because he fired all the NO people in those departments that he stripped money from and either didn't replaced them or he put Jawohl Mein Führer people in.

Well, he is a big enough arse for it to be bitten lots times, I suppose.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Fred99

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#2429528 1-Mar-2020 10:11

tdgeek:

Are you expecting waves of infections? Like Iran for example?

Are there "waves" of infection in Iran? I doubt it - just a complete breakdown or lack of containment and inadequate reporting systems.

"Waves" to me suggests something like the 1918 pandemic flu, first wave basically just a bad flu, then with a second wave something had changed - probably a mutation so that it was far more lethal to young fit healthy people - IIRC about half the deaths were of people aged 20-40. They still don't know why - and flu is different, but one hypothesis is that the most severely ill were taken from where they were and hospitalised in bulk, they had the most deadly strains, concentration of large numbers with the most deadly strains with inadequate isolation led to community outbreaks of those deadlier strains. So actions taken to mitigate / isolate may have backfired.

If spread of this thing can be contained - it's still certain that there will still be ongoing outbreaks - all it takes is one infected person - as seen with the Diamond Princess.

Rikkitic

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#2429529 1-Mar-2020 10:12

Also big enough for a lot of people to crawl up.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Fred99

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#2429535 1-Mar-2020 10:19

Rikkitic:

Also big enough for a lot of people to crawl up.

Trump didn't cause this, the politicisation of how it's being handled in the US is a disaster in the making. As I understand it, the democrats are not off the hook here - one of the requests by them for the $8.5 billion in funding to fight the disease was that it was taken from Trump's wall fund. That's only adding fuel to a fire. Personally - I'd want to take it from Trump's tanned hide - but can we keep politics about Covid 19 in the politics forum?

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Fred99

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#2429540 1-Mar-2020 10:33

Story on Stuff:

A mass mobilisation of 'vulnerable' people to an isolated region or island to restrict the spread of Covid-19 coronavirus was among the options being considered by the Government, a leading epidemiologist says.

University of Otago professor Michael Baker said now was the time to consider "innovative approaches" after the first Covid-19 case was detected in New Zealand.

Moving large numbers of older New Zealanders, or those susceptible to respiratory illness, to an isolated region or island to see out the winter could save thousands of lives, Baker said.

Known as protective sequestration, the move would require an enormous logistical effort to commandeer housing stock, and identify and uproot vulnerable people from their homes and move them into isolated areas.

Sidestep

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#2429541 1-Mar-2020 10:42

Fred99:

Story on Stuff:

A mass mobilisation of 'vulnerable' people to an isolated region or island to restrict the spread of Covid-19 coronavirus was among the options being considered by the Government, a leading epidemiologist says.

University of Otago professor Michael Baker said now was the time to consider "innovative approaches" after the first Covid-19 case was detected in New Zealand.

Moving large numbers of older New Zealanders, or those susceptible to respiratory illness, to an isolated region or island to see out the winter could save thousands of lives, Baker said.

Known as protective sequestration, the move would require an enormous logistical effort to commandeer housing stock, and identify and uproot vulnerable people from their homes and move them into isolated areas.

Hmm.. A cruise ship should provide the perfect isolated place to keep large numbers of vulnerable people..

jen1001

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#2429543 1-Mar-2020 10:49

Scott3:

Went to the countdown supermarket in Newmarket on Saturday afternoon. They had scrambled extra staff, had every checkout open etc. Queues were short. Stock level was good apart from a few obvious exceptions:

larger water bottle packs sold out, smaller packs, 6x1.5L etc still available.
Large bags of rice sold out, 1kg bags still available
Normal flour sold out
2 min noodle stock quite low
Cheaper beech & cleaning products low (detoll brand sold out, sanitizing wipes sold out)
Tissues nearly sold out - only expensive boxes left.
Hand soap sold out
Cheaper nappies low.
Toilet paper larger packs getting low (but still some of each type, and an entire full row ends around the corner)
Was amused at the person at the checkout opposite me who brought like 20 cans of baked beans & 20 cans of spaghetti only.

Chemist warehouse - stock levels seemed normal, no queue

Warehouse - odd person with 40 pack of toilet paper, but stock level seemed normal, except for hand soap refills that were running low.

No apocalypse at our local Countdown in Ponsonby either yesterday at around lunchtime, although you could kind of tell people were stocking up canned goods but stock on shelves was still good. Plenty of tissues, hand soap and toilet paper left. I didn't bother looking for sanitizer but I think most Countdowns now have a 2 per person limit, if they do have any left.

Went to pick up my script refill at the Chemist Warehouse off Queen Street on Friday evening and they were out of masks, anti bacterial soap sanitizer etc. Asked the pharmacist if they'd been busy that day, she said their stock had been low for a couple of weeks already. Countdown Ponsonby pharmacy have been sold out for ages, I remember seeing a sign on the counter

tdgeek

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#2429545 1-Mar-2020 10:51

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Are you expecting waves of infections? Like Iran for example?

Are there "waves" of infection in Iran? I doubt it - just a complete breakdown or lack of containment and inadequate reporting systems.

"Waves" to me suggests something like the 1918 pandemic flu, first wave basically just a bad flu, then with a second wave something had changed - probably a mutation so that it was far more lethal to young fit healthy people - IIRC about half the deaths were of people aged 20-40. They still don't know why - and flu is different, but one hypothesis is that the most severely ill were taken from where they were and hospitalised in bulk, they had the most deadly strains, concentration of large numbers with the most deadly strains with inadequate isolation led to community outbreaks of those deadlier strains. So actions taken to mitigate / isolate may have backfired.

If spread of this thing can be contained - it's still certain that there will still be ongoing outbreaks - all it takes is one infected person - as seen with the Diamond Princess.

Agree. someone else suggested a wave. Iran is as you say. Italy has had a number of cases, they are doing their best to contain. Most of the many countries infected have 1 or a handful, so it appears to me that its relatively contained. More will happen. The US is a curious example. They are seeing infections with no known link. Two in I think it was on the west coast, are in relatively nearby towns, but neither has any infected country means of contact or has travelled to the other county where the other is. They seem to have issues with testing. This is the leader of the world country, the American Dream. They seem to not have any form of handle on it

Rikkitic

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#2429546 1-Mar-2020 10:51

Fred99:

Rikkitic:

Also big enough for a lot of people to crawl up.

Trump didn't cause this, the politicisation of how it's being handled in the US is a disaster in the making. As I understand it, the democrats are not off the hook here - one of the requests by them for the $8.5 billion in funding to fight the disease was that it was taken from Trump's wall fund. That's only adding fuel to a fire. Personally - I'd want to take it from Trump's tanned hide - but can we keep politics about Covid 19 in the politics forum?

No, Trump didn't cause it and I can't speak for the Democrats but his well-documented deficiencies are getting in the way of effective counter-measures. He disputes solid science, thinks he knows everything better than anyone else, refuses to listen to advice that runs counter to what he has already decided, has hollowed out the very institutions best-equipped to deal with the crisis, has sacked those who dare to contradict him and surrounded himself with sycophantic yes-men, and is getting in the way of efforts to contain the spread by trying to shift blame. He may not have caused it, but he is the one most responsible for politicising it. My comment refers to the yes-men (and women) and is completely appropriate for this thread, because if no way is found to bypass Trump's stupidities it will have a direct and devastating effect on the spread of the virus.

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tdgeek

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#2429551 1-Mar-2020 11:40

Just been to NW Wigram. Average to quiet, fully stocked. I guess the panickers are still putting their groceries away from yesterday.

Mahon

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#2429555 1-Mar-2020 11:57

My definition of "wave" is that it is coming and its unstoppable. As to its severity and how many will be affected is another issue.

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#2429556 1-Mar-2020 11:57

"Real Time with Bill Maher", episode "2020.02.28", has quite a lengthy discussion around Covida.

It was featured throughout the show. There was even a Republican guest defending Trump's actions, an impossible task.

Dr. Anne Rimoin, Professor of Epidemiology at the UCLA

Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

tdgeek

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#2429561 1-Mar-2020 12:15

Mahon:

My definition of "wave" is that it is coming and its unstoppable. As to its severity and how many will be affected is another issue.

Mine is that a wave seems big. I predict that it will grow steadily but slow. You can't nab everyone at the border, although I feel border control has been minimal at best. China will contain it, Italy as well, they are also aggressive on quarantine measures. Most other countries have low numbers, many have just 1 or 2. its ease of infection means that it should spiral out of control, but state ordered measures such as China and Italy, and self isolation would make infection struggle to get traction. China are working towards getting production back into effect, and that may mean nothing more than just major inconvenience for a while. Businesses will be affected, some more than others, but they get affected by any manner of events that occur. They will bounce back. Govt support may occur. I can cope with no skilsaws in stock at Bunnings, but the daily supermarket needs, I feel won't be a major impact here.

That just my gut feel.

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