2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2504752 15-Jun-2020 09:29

itxtme:

How ridiculous. The tax payer is funding it because the government changed the rules of coming back home. Its not opt-in, and no rational government could one day increase the cost of returning to your home country by thousands of dollars. What do you suggest people do? Overstay their visas and start stealing food and living on the streets of foreign countries?

I am surprised that we dont have rules around leaving the country and costs associated with returning shortly thereafter. In other words we should be stamping out the revolving door loophole, although I am not sure there are many people actually doing this.

Australia is considering doing just that, right now. The argument is that expats have had ample opportunity to return home "for free" (even though that's a bald faced lie, as in some cases the expats are stuck in countries where it was and still is near impossible to leave, or where the only repatriation flights are prohibitively expensive).

freitasm

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#2504754 15-Jun-2020 09:41

cshwone:

freitasm:

Not ageist or racist at all. Also, UK - female leader?

The original post quoted a neverending succession of wealthy old white men. The UK has had a couple of female prime ministers; Obama in the US is not white. Both not a neverending succession of wealthy old white men.

This probably would go into politics but you seriously consider one black president after 230 years of Republic, with a Congress dominated by the opposing party, followed by a president that is clearly a misogynist racist a break in the "neverending succession of wealthy old white men"?

Please don't bother replying here. If you want, create a new thread in the Politics sub-forum.

DS248

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#2504911 15-Jun-2020 11:07

Further research results identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117

DS248

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#2504956 15-Jun-2020 11:34

Intra-household transmission remains a significant source of virus spread in Victoria, Australia. https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-14-june-2020

The west still seems unwilling to learn from the likes of Hong Kong, Taiwan & Vietnam, where confirmed cases are placed in separate controlled isolation (normally in a hospital). Not only reduces intra-household transmission but in general also means better care for patients.

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#2504958 15-Jun-2020 11:35

DS248:

Further research results identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117

So in layman’s terms, face masks are good in helping to prevent the transmission of the disease.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

DS248

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#2504965 15-Jun-2020 11:57

Not directly covid related, but wife just sent me a pdf with the latest flu-tracking data ex MoH. Contains plot below, which is really positive. Hopefully remains low as it would indicate people are taking flu-like symptoms seriously. Fingers crossed.

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#2504966 15-Jun-2020 11:58

kingdragonfly:
Are female leaders better at fighting a pandemic?

“Countries led by women do seem to be particularly successful in fighting the coronavirus,” noted Anne W. Rimoin, an epidemiologist at U.C.L.A. “New Zealand, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Norway have done so well perhaps due to the leadership and management styles attributed to their female leaders.”
...
“I don’t think it’s a coincidence that some of the best-run places have been run by women: New Zealand, Germany, Taiwan,” mused Susan Rice, who was national security adviser under President Barack Obama. “And where we’ve seen things go most badly wrong — the U.S., Brazil, Russia, the U.K. — it’s a lot of male ego and bluster.”

Nonsense.

Iceland has done quite badly, and Germany isn't great. If you look at Worldometer cases and deaths per 1M population, Iceland (5306 cases/1M= 16th out of over 200, 29 deaths/1M), Germany (2204, 106), Denmark (2105, 103), Norway (1592, 45), and Finland (1282, 59) are above the World average (1023, 55.8). Only NZ (301, 4) & Taiwan (19, 0.3) are below the world average in both categories. Singapore, also with a female leader but absent from this list (although I recall seeing it in an earlier list touting female world leaders), is (6943, 4).

I do agree that USA, Brazil, Russia, and the UK have done (and are doing) badly, at least in part due to their leaders' inabilities. But they're hardly representative of male leaders. For example, Australia, much as I dislike ScoMo, and Greenland are doing well.

So this was a cherry-picked list aimed at falsely promoting a particular point. Betteridges law of headlines applies to the opening statement.

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vexxxboy

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#2504999 15-Jun-2020 12:50

Dingbatt:

DS248:

Further research results identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117

So in layman’s terms, face masks are good in helping to prevent the transmission of the disease.

that has always been the case, they are still not good in preventing you catching it

Common sense is not as common as you think.

DS248

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#2505002 15-Jun-2020 12:59

Dingbatt:

DS248:

Further research results identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117

So in layman’s terms, face masks are good in helping to prevent the transmission of the disease.

Yes, consistent with findings in the link I posted a few days ago ( #2502254 ). And with a good number of other studies as well as empirical evidence ex many parts of east Asia.

DS248

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#2505010 15-Jun-2020 13:14

vexxxboy:

Dingbatt:

...

So in layman’s terms, face masks are good in helping to prevent the transmission of the disease.

that has always been the case, they are still not good in preventing you catching it

Evidence?

Not consistent with data from the USS Theodore Roosevelt (#2502254 ). Crew members who wore masks had a significantly lower risk of being infected (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e4.htm?s_cid=mm6923e4_e&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM30202).

That is, in net, they protected the wearer. Within the context of an aircraft carrier, face masks had the best odds ratio of any preventative measure; eg. 0.3 vs 0.52 for social distancing.

DS248

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#2505225 15-Jun-2020 17:08

Interesting recent cases from Vietnam (all imported). The three most recent cases did not test positive until a second sample was taken in preparation for release, 11 - 12 days after they arrived in Vietnam. https://ncov.moh.gov.vn/dong-thoi-gian

Perhaps more of concern, two recent local cases in Hong Kong (https://wars.vote4.hk/en/cases). To quote:

Case 1109: " ... listed as a close contact upon her sister-in-law's diagnosis. She developed fever on May 31 during the wait for transfer to quarantine centre and was hospitalised and tested. Both her nasal and throat swab samples tested negative, and with her fever being brought down, she was discharged on June 2 and transferred to quarantine centre. She exhibited no symptoms throughout her stay at quarantine centre, and her deep throat saliva sample tested positive on June 11 nearing the end of her quarantine period, having no other close contacts in prior"
Case 1110: " ... is a neighbour of patients #1084, #1085, and #1109. He was arranged for transfer to quarantine centre on June 4, when he also developed fever and was hospitalised and tested. The nasal swap, throat swap, deep throat saliva and stool samples all tested negative. Due to persisting fever and pneumonia, he undertook a bronchoscopy on June 12, and his bronchial mucus sample tested positive"

In the latter case it took a bronchoscopy to yield a positive result.

The recent HK cases and recent upswing in local cases in Victoria show how difficult the virus can be to eliminate once it takes hold (ave 5/day over the last 6 days, following a week with an average of only ~1 case/day). That is despite intensive testing and contract tracing. Victoria has been testing at a significantly higher rate than NZ (Vic average over the last 5 days ~8,600; up to 20,000+/day in the second half of May).

The last HK case provides an illustration of the intensity of the response there. To quote the remainder of the details for that case "He was hospitalised since June 4, and prior to that he mainly stayed at home and had no close contacts other than the two elder brothers and mother, who were transferred to quarantine centre as well. The two elder brothers were hospitalised and tested due to fever, and their respiratory specimens tested negative while their fever was brought down as well. Their mother exhibited no symptoms, and the three of them continue their quarantine at the quarantine centre." Even the mother who has exhibited no symptoms has been placed in a quarantine centre. Despite this level of follow up, HK is still experiencing occasional local cases. The last local case prior to these was 10 days earlier.

Fred99

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#2505495 15-Jun-2020 22:15

There's always been a high false negative from rRT-PCR nasal swabs. (~25%). So for example 2 consecutive negative have a 1/16 chance of being false negative. NZ stats still record a lot (300?) unconfirmed by PCR "probables".
You're not likely to get public compliance to have more invasive (ie bronchoalveolar lavage) mass screening - or enough qualified staff to do it. Personally. if I had some symptoms and thought I may have C-19 - I'd tell them to back off - treat me as "probable".
I have read reports saying that sputum gives fewer false negatives than nasal swabs, but it's marginal, many folks struggle to hocker up a good gob.

I'm not convinced that masks are the answer. I sense there's a more than bit of political BS involved - people feel happier f they think they can protect themselves - but there's a serious downside to that. NZ nailed C-19 without widespread use of masks by the general public.

Fred99

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#2505501 15-Jun-2020 22:23

frankv:

Iceland has done quite badly,

I think Iceland has done pretty good, considering very high (almost 20x NZ cases on a population basis) and low average age of cases (thus high probability of infectious mild or near asymptomatic cases). Then also with small population they have fewer resources.

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#2505556 16-Jun-2020 04:38

neb: From today's Theatre of the Absurd: Hydroxychloroquine: US sends Brazil 2 million doses of drug to treat coronavirus

The FDA today revoked it's Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, saying the drugs are “unlikely to be effective in treating COVID-19 for the authorized uses in the EUA.”

Their statement - PDF Here - says Clinical Trial results have shown “in light of ongoing serious cardiac adverse events and other serious side effects".. "the known and potential benefits of CQ and HCQ no longer outweigh the known and potential risks”

Shipments of the drugs obtained by the federal government will no longer be distributed to state and local health authorities.
Guess they'll have a large unusable stockpile to get rid of.. Oh! hang on..

freitasm

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#2505571 16-Jun-2020 07:49

And now the FDA says not to use hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19 due to heart risks.

[Edit: oops, sorry - saw the previous post, and forgot about it while reading the Washington Post, then posted the above. Doh]

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