2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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1152 posts

Uber Geek
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#2409545 29-Jan-2020 10:32

gzt:
This aspect really worries me. I would have thought protocols would be established to continue food and water deliveries to supermarkets and or collection points, army delivering water, emergency food services to vulnerable elderly etc. Probably there are a small number of things on a local initiative level. There seems to be not much happening on a major scale and a lot of experiences like your uncle's with not much information getting to them.

apparently 56m people are under lockdown so food / water / govt resources are running very thin at the moment.. a lot of food and water resource from cities not in lockdown are being redirected which is also causing food / water and govt personal scarcity in non quarantined cities

A lot of doctors and nurses are also being shipped out causing yet more shortages in their own cities "official" numbers have said 15 healthcare workers have now been infected and one confirmed death of a doctor.

Govt there have released a real time app that can shows "official numbers" of infected people which can be broken down to province / city / area to deter people from staying away or indoor from places most effected

I have 4 family members in China and they had said the CCP have extended the Chinese new years holiday period to keep people at home and out of public places..

now this part is an absolute rumor but I find it plausible.. WHO has had pressure put on it to down play the severity along the CCP only revealing bits of info to try and protect global stock markets.. consumer goods from the likes of apple and nike have already had a 2% slump.. I was hesitant in typing this but I really hope thats not the case..

dt

1152 posts

Uber Geek
Inactive user

#2409549 29-Jan-2020 10:37

Dratsab:

dt: are you able to host these?

Link emailed with further explanation of why I doubt the video. I won't post it here. The source appears dodgy to me as well, in other words I think it's FUD but it'll no doubt get traction across social media.

thanks for sharing, yeah the way thats been recorded does scream out hoax..

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2409588 29-Jan-2020 11:26

dt:

now this part is an absolute rumor but I find it plausible.. WHO has had pressure put on it to down play the severity along the CCP only revealing bits of info to try and protect global stock markets.. consumer goods from the likes of apple and nike have already had a 2% slump.. I was hesitant in typing this but I really hope thats not the case..

If there was pressure applied, I doubt it was for that reason. I posted about an inconsistency or "mistake" by WHO here.

It's a difficult issue - whether to risk over or understating the threat. Risks from overstating include causing panic - not just by citizens but by authorities. So for example, in severe cases of ARDS, then to save patients then there's limited resources for equipment - ventilators and ECMO etc. IIRC in China at least 60 ECMO devices have been sent to Wuhan from Beijing - which means that there are 60 fewer machines in Beijing to deal with "routine" needs - someone else may possibly miss out and die. I wouldn't like to be the person responsible for making that decision.

Some resources may be able to be created - but many will just be "diverted" from other areas of need. Underfunding and consequent under-resourcing is how hospitals work.

Individuals panicking empty supermarket shelves of basic supplies, medical supplies, and the "worried well" swamp hospital ER depts. despite being told not to. It may seems nuts - but say if you come down with a cold/flu in the near future while this Wuhan virus is around, even though the chance of it being Wuhan virus is very remote, I'd wager that a certain thought goes through everyone's mind in that situation.

Rikkitic

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18657 posts

Uber Geek

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#2409607 29-Jan-2020 12:34

If I had a cold, I would go to bed. Maybe young people with more to lose would panic more readily, but the last place I want to be is a virus collection point like a hospital or doctor's office.

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muppet

2566 posts

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#2409651 29-Jan-2020 12:55

I developed a flow chart that you can follow to help you and your family stay safe from the Wuhan Virus.

Hope it might help some of you out there in GZ Land:

Wuhan Prevention Flowchart

msukiwi

2417 posts

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#2409662 29-Jan-2020 13:15

From:

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-spreads-humantohuman-in-germany-and-japan/news-story/df0307aecb83492dea6fd59ce9462abd

The first cases of human-to-human transmission of the deadly coronavirus outside of China have taken place, health authorities have confirmed.

Two people, one in Germany and one in Japan, have contracted the virus even though they had not travelled to China. They contracted the virus from visitors from the Wuhan region.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2409694 29-Jan-2020 14:06

msukiwi:

From:

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-spreads-humantohuman-in-germany-and-japan/news-story/df0307aecb83492dea6fd59ce9462abd

The first cases of human-to-human transmission of the deadly coronavirus outside of China have taken place, health authorities have confirmed.

Two people, one in Germany and one in Japan, have contracted the virus even though they had not travelled to China. They contracted the virus from visitors from the Wuhan region.

Already 6 days ago there was confirmed person to person transmission outside China - passing on of the infection to someone who hadn't visited China recently.

It's even mentioned later in the article (The World Health Organisation said a case in Vietnam also involved human-to-human transmission outside China) - so the headline from news.co.au. is misleading.

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tdgeek

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#2409707 29-Jan-2020 14:29

The totals are now 6000 confirmed cases and 131 fatalities

Re human to human, I must be missing something. The outbreak reportedly started at a meat market in Wuhan. 6000 (at least) infected. Surely the vast majority of these are human to human? Less the meat market buyers that got infected at the market from meat consumption. Surely the 6000 aren't mainly that meat market's customers, which is what the low number of human to human seems to imply.

Batman

Mad Scientist
29760 posts

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#2409728 29-Jan-2020 14:52

tdgeek:
The totals are now 6000 confirmed cases and 131 fatalities

Re human to human, I must be missing something. The outbreak reportedly started at a meat market in Wuhan. 6000 (at least) infected. Surely the vast majority of these are human to human? Less the meat market buyers that got infected at the market from meat consumption. Surely the 6000 aren't mainly that meat market's customers, which is what the low number of human to human seems to imply.

It's all political fudge to not cause panic etc

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2409730 29-Jan-2020 15:03

tdgeek:

The totals are now 6000 confirmed cases and 131 fatalities

Re human to human, I must be missing something. The outbreak reportedly started at a meat market in Wuhan. 6000 (at least) infected. Surely the vast majority of these are human to human? Less the meat market buyers that got infected at the market from meat consumption. Surely the 6000 aren't mainly that meat market's customers, which is what the low number of human to human seems to imply.

Even the initial 41 confirmed cases, one third of the patients had not visited the market, so that's leaving only two options, most likely that human to human transmission had already occurred - or less likely that there was another source of animal to human transmission in Wuhan.

I haven't seen a figure or guesstimate for the % out of the ~6,000 confirmed cases in China, as to how they got infected.

As for total cases and fatalities, someone's made a chart and posted on Wiki:

With comments that the epidemic is still in an exponential growth stage with a doubling of cases per 1.71 days. The parallel plots for cases and deaths is a bit concerning as it seems to show that mortality is stuck in the 2.6% range - for "confirmed" cases. But as there are only guesses for total cases, total mortality is unknown. That there have been no fatalities in any of the confirmed cases outside of China may be statistically meaningless.

tdgeek

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#2409733 29-Jan-2020 15:08

Thanks Fred

Beccara

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#2409741 29-Jan-2020 15:44

With only 80ish cases outside China I doubt we'll see a death this week. The rate outside China's slowing down despite China's doubling every ~2ish days

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Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2409742 29-Jan-2020 15:46

If you want to give yourself a fright, extend the present increase in confirmed cases and deaths to the end of February by doubling the present figures 17 times.
As there's no confirmation or rebuttal that "super spreaders" with no symptoms or "walking pneumonia" patients with mild symptoms are taking a part in transmission within China, and that in any case a person can be infectious before showing symptoms, then airport screening for people with fevers etc may be a complete waste of time.
IMO it's time to seriously consider closing borders.

Dratsab

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#2409746 29-Jan-2020 15:52

Fred99: If you want to give yourself a fright, extend the present increase in confirmed cases and deaths to the end of February by doubling the present figures 17 times.
As there's no confirmation or rebuttal that "super spreaders" with no symptoms or "walking pneumonia" patients with mild symptoms are taking a part in transmission within China, and that in any case a person can be infectious before showing symptoms, then airport screening for people with fevers etc may be a complete waste of time.
IMO it's time to seriously consider closing borders.

Then look at 2.6% of that figure, which is [roughly] where the alleged death rate currently sits.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2409747 29-Jan-2020 15:53

Beccara:

With only 80ish cases outside China I doubt we'll see a death this week. The rate outside China's slowing down despite China's doubling every ~2ish days

Yeah nah.

I shudder to think what happens if when this gets to India, Africa....

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