Fred99:

 

tdgeek:

 

Every other outbreak has burnt out or diluted itseof so it becomes part of the normal flu cycle. Why would this one be any different? 

 

 

It's not.

 

"Spanish flu" was similar, now H1N1 is the seasonal flu.  The process / pandemic where the disease "ran its course" was pretty ugly though - ~50 million deaths (countless - nobody knows the exact figure). 

 

Most of the "mild" contagious diseases we humans get probably started in that way. 

 

Im hopeful this one wont reach those dizzy heights. China as one example is seeing infection growth slow. But they did have extreme quarantine measures, but they also have arguably less capable healthcare, and more difficulty coping with the volume of at risk people. Italy will be interesting to watch, they have a serious outbreak, they are quarantining in what seems to be an aggressive manner. I get the feeling that the fatality rate is declining as time goes on? Its high in Hubei, lower in the rest of China and the overseas figures you quoted today, that seems lower at 1.7% (variable reporting though?)

To me the key is tracing contacts. We dont seek to be doing much of that here. It seems more cursory than complete. If they can do that well in Italy that will help hugely, although they do seem to have a handle on where and who to quarantine. There is a number, where we cant check all the contacts, as too many, thats when it can get out of control. You end up following it, rather than running close behind and trying to head it off at the pass