2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2518231 6-Jul-2020 21:54

Batman:

DS248:

The difficulty in fully locking down the Victoria-NSW border is apparent from this article. Not just roads & bridges - also dirt tracks through bush and 1000+km of border river to patrol.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/all-bases-covered-24-hour-surveillance-on-victoria-nsw-border-as-military-called-in-c-1147576

i think by the time they do the Paris Dakar through the Australian desert the covid virus would be long gone or the hiker long dead

That really would be some detour!

Gurezaemon

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#2518232 6-Jul-2020 21:54

mattwnz:

DS248:

The difficulty in fully locking down the Victoria-NSW border is apparent from this article. Not just roads & bridges - also dirt tracks through bush and 1000+km of border river to patrol.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/all-bases-covered-24-hour-surveillance-on-victoria-nsw-border-as-military-called-in-c-1147576

I honestly can't see how they can really stop people going across the border who really want to, unless they erect walls. The only state I can see that could remain Covid free is Tasmania, as like NZ, it is surrounded by water. Someone could travel by boat, but not as easy.

<Cough> Tasmania actually has a land border with Victoria - Boundary Islet.

OK, so it is only 85 m long, and an unlikely point for someone to try and cross 😋

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#2518234 6-Jul-2020 21:59

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

I am not sure how plausible it is that it is a virus that laid dormant, until environmental conditions were right. If that is the case then why aren't we getting unexplained cases in the community in NZ? Or other cases in China that couldn't be tracked back to Wuhan. I thought China had traced it back to the Wuhan wet market from a single carrier, and it could have got over to France in December from people traveling to and from China in Decemeber, and it did have an epicentre in China. My problem is that wet markets are still occurring around the world, so have we learnt anything? I don't think there is much doubt that it is international travel that has spread this virus throughout the world which has led to the disaster.

Given that local scientists have found this in their own country, its very plausible.

It is early days on this one. There are a number of potentially confounding factors; eg. see https://theconversation.com/was-coronavirus-really-in-europe-in-march-2019-141582

And as noted elsewhere, there is the potential for a false positive due to the virus' similarities with other respiratory infections. Also see comment by Veli VU near the bottom of this link https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1.

I have not seen the following discussed, but even if SARS-CoV-2 RNA was present in Mar 2019, the fact it was not detected in samples taken during the following 9 months would perhaps suggest it more likely from a visitor to the area (from Wuhan??!) than being present in the local population. Indeed, the latter would seem unlikely from an epidemiological perspective.

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#2518249 6-Jul-2020 23:59

mattwnz:

Fred99:

Yep. Some data from France where they had patients admitted with atypical pneumonia at the same time as the first cases seen (and retrospectively diagnosed) in Wuhan, tested positive for C-19 antibodies when they tested them a couple of months ago.

I am not sure how plausible it is that it is a virus that laid dormant, until environmental conditions were right. If that is the case then why aren't we getting unexplained cases in the community in NZ? Or other cases in China that couldn't be tracked back to Wuhan. I thought China had traced it back to the Wuhan wet market from a single carrier, and it could have got over to France in December from people traveling to and from China in Decemeber, and it did have an epicentre in China. My problem is that wet markets are still occurring around the world, so have we learnt anything? I don't think there is much doubt that it is international travel that has spread this virus throughout the world which has led to the disaster.

I don't believe "laid dormant" in any literal sense. Plausible IMO given confirmation of the functional mutation, that early on it was much less easily transmissible, and would have been lost in the "background noise" of atypical pneumonia which wasn't specifically attributed to other known pathogens. Even if some patients died, then especially if they were older and with pneumonia further investigation of cause of death probably wouldn't happen - until they were sure something really unusual might be happening. And until then - well you're not looking for something because there's nothing to see here.

Sure wet markets, but there's more to it than that IMO. Poultry/pig farming or any intensive farming of animals is a known risk for pandemics, "wild meat" is another risk. Increasing encroachment of humans and livestock into former wilderness areas, deforestation a huge risk.

There are too many humans on the planet. We're going to stuff this up - and need to change.

Fred99

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#2518252 7-Jul-2020 00:18

frankv:
mattwnz:

I am not sure how plausible it is that it is a virus that laid dormant, until environmental conditions were right.

I agree. You can't surely argue that conditions in France 2020 are much more conducive to covid-19 than 6 months or a year ago. And if they were equally conducive, why didn't the disease explode throughout France 6 months or a year ago?

My understandins is that they are analyzing sewage for fragments of RNA that are present in the covid-19 virus. We know that there are similar viruses in our environment, and they will have similar RNA. So the sewage will have pieces of those viruses, not to mention RNA & DNA from the food and people, and a whole lot of other proteins. Even if you find in this soup fragments that match every single section of the covid-19 RNA, that doesn't prove that the virus was actually present. Just that it *could* be present. I doubt that any part of the covid-19 RNA is *known* to be specific just to it.

Have they found covid-19 antibodies in blood samples taken prior to (say) November 2019? That seems to me to be a much easier thing to detect.

If the patient survived - then their blood should have antibodies. They're not likely to have blood from deceased patients when COD is attributed to pneumonia. Even if they sent sputum or tissue samples to a lab, they'd almost certainly find some non-viral pathogen if they culture samples, but not find a virus not known to exist at the time because there's no way to test, so it would slip through. Goodness knows how many if any at all would be retained. Old people routinely die of pneumonia.

AFAIK they found patients in France with ground glass opacity radiology from very early December that also tested positive for C-19 antibodies when they fould them later (weeks ago). This isn't "proof" because they could have been exposed to C-19 later. They found others in November with the same opacities, but last I heard they hadn't found the patients and tested them (antibodies). They could also test negative - even if they had it. Even with relatively recently recovered cases, some older people had almost undetectable levels of antibodies (yet they recovered).

Sampling sewage is probably subject to the problem that the lower the expected concentration of viral RNA you're looking for, then the more PCR cycles needed to amplify the RNA to detectable level, each cycle subject to some possible error, so the harder you look - the more the chance of false positives.

If there was C-19 outside of China prior to the first suspected cases in China - it's going to be a needle in a haystack to find them. Finding the intermediate host is more important, but China's cooperation is questionable and the alternative is that it could have come from everywhere else on the planet.

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#2518254 7-Jul-2020 01:00

Batman:

If it is true, then the virus (like every other virus) was spreading for a while prior to 2020 but wasn't as deadly, ie only killed one or two here and there. Then something happened in December 2019 in Wuhan - ?mutation?- ?wet market providing optimal conditions?

I would expect that if there was a virus that was spreading before any possible mutation, then quite a lot of NZers would have antibodies to it, especially if they traveled in Europe etc over the last 1-2 years. It would be interesting to see how many NZers do have antibodies to it. I understand they are doing some survey down south, looking at how many people have been exposed to the virus and may have antibodies, however that seems to be concentrated on those who have been in close contact with confirmed NZ cases. But it may indicate something. Potenially NZ could be a good sample to test this theory, as we are covid free, and very few people should have been in contact with any covid cases.

mattwnz

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#2518255 7-Jul-2020 01:30

New interview with Bill Gates on the current state of the pandemic. Mentions NZ too. Also mentions how important mask wearing is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmQWOPDqxWA

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mattwnz

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#2518256 7-Jul-2020 01:59

Anyone know why New Zealands level of testing has dropped off significantly?

As per the MOH website

Yesterday our laboratories completed 1,057 tests

On Saturday, our laboratories completed 2,294 tests.

We have the capacity to do over 10,000 tests. Surely we should be testing throughout the community still as much as we were? eg anyone with cold like symptoms should be getting tested shouldn't they?

tdgeek

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#2518262 7-Jul-2020 06:48

mattwnz:

Anyone know why New Zealands level of testing has dropped off significantly?

As per the MOH website

Yesterday our laboratories completed 1,057 tests

On Saturday, our laboratories completed 2,294 tests.

We have the capacity to do over 10,000 tests. Surely we should be testing throughout the community still as much as we were? eg anyone with cold like symptoms should be getting tested shouldn't they?

Less people asking? Less doctors saying you need a test? They still do sentinel testing. If one had it, that spreads to friends and family very easily now, you'd think at least one of a band of cool people would be told to get a test. Its not out there

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#2518263 7-Jul-2020 06:53

mattwnz:

Anyone know why New Zealands level of testing has dropped off significantly?

As per the MOH website

Yesterday our laboratories completed 1,057 tests

On Saturday, our laboratories completed 2,294 tests.

We have the capacity to do over 10,000 tests. Surely we should be testing throughout the community still as much as we were? eg anyone with cold like symptoms should be getting tested shouldn't they?

one boss on holiday, the other resigned

recall that the one on holiday singlehandedly runs the testing, the immigration, the airport, the airlines, the quarantines, and the schools - better check up on those too 🤔😝😜

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#2518308 7-Jul-2020 08:54

And there we have it.

The tap flow has been turned right down by the government. As a result all this weeks arrival boards at the airport are basically blank and making people trying to get back panic

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12346018

And if you missed the news, Monday trends are traditionally less for testing. However, the testing regime went up 2 Thursdays ago. To more the original plan - won't test unless it is again a defined multi Covid symptoms. Or you have been in contact with an overseas visitor. Or REALLLY have a driving case to. Or it's off home, rest up.

1101

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#2518316 7-Jul-2020 09:13

mattwnz:

New interview with Bill Gates on the current state of the pandemic. Mentions NZ too. Also mentions how important mask wearing is.

Bill Gates. A well known expert on viral/infectious diseases :-(
Are his opinions any more valid than Trumps , neither are experts in this field.

This is part of the problem. NON Experts opinions being spread about .
No wonder there is so much conflicting info out there .
Average person has no way of knowing whats fact & whats FUD .

tdgeek

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#2518318 7-Jul-2020 09:19

1101:

mattwnz:

New interview with Bill Gates on the current state of the pandemic. Mentions NZ too. Also mentions how important mask wearing is.

Bill Gates. A well known expert on viral/infectious diseases :-(
Are his opinions any more valid than Trumps , neither are experts in this field.

This is part of the problem. NON Experts opinions being spread about .
No wonder there is so much conflicting info out there .
Average person has no way of knowing whats fact & whats FUD .

Access to more experts than most

Fred99

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#2518324 7-Jul-2020 09:27

1101:

mattwnz:

New interview with Bill Gates on the current state of the pandemic. Mentions NZ too. Also mentions how important mask wearing is.

Bill Gates. A well known expert on viral/infectious diseases :-(
Are his opinions any more valid than Trumps , neither are experts in this field.

This is part of the problem. NON Experts opinions being spread about .
No wonder there is so much conflicting info out there .
Average person has no way of knowing whats fact & whats FUD .

Surely you are kidding or trolling? The Gates Foundation pours billions into global health initiatives based on science.

Trump is generally anti-science, created a charitable foundation for "kids with cancer" presumably for tax benefits and PR, then spent the charity's funds on a painting of himself.

Sure there's conflicting info out there, but that's ridiculous.

If you want to continue on the subject - go to the Trump thread in the politics forum.

Fred99

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#2518329 7-Jul-2020 09:45

Oblivian:

And there we have it.

The tap flow has been turned right down by the government. As a result all this weeks arrival boards at the airport are basically blank and making people trying to get back panic

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12346018

I don't have a problem with that. IIRC the expected inflow was to be about 250 arrivals a day to reach saturation point for quarantine capacity. Arrivals have been much higher than that, quarantine capacity has been increased, but the limit has been hit.

A couple of things happened in the meantime, the pandemic accelerated globally, thus higher risk that arrivals would be infected, and as the pandemic in many countries worsened, citizens/residents overseas were probably motivated to return sooner rather than later. We also had well publicised glitches in quarantine, action was needed - if quarantine procedures aren't good enough - then the 5 million of us in NZ and at near zero risk are exposed to higher risk, and tens of thousands of us could die.

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