frankv:

 

Fred99:

 

You can't get evidence of long term (say 5+ years) immunity in humans for some disease that's only been around for months.

 

 

If there's no short-term immunity, it means that there won't be long-term immunity, right? And there's no evidence of short-term immunity.

 

There's no hard evidence from vaccine until phase III trial data comes in - but there's good evidence people from who've had covid, that so far they don't get reinfected, and that the vaccine promotes a good immune response.

Longer term though - who knows?   It might be like 'flu - where the vaccine has pretty poor efficacy so at best it reduces R0 to below levels causing epidemics, and maybe partial immunity means if you get a strain that you've been vaccinated against then it'll be milder, maybe there's cross-immunity between strains. At least C19 doesn't mutate as fast as the flu.

Then phase 3 and 4 trials might uncover something nasty - like ADE.  There's even (on that page) the suggestion that the severe cases where people get cytokine storm might be because they're having an ADE response due to having past (non Covid) coronavirus infections.

WHO are issuing warnings to not get hopes too high that there's going to be a solution soon.  Hardly anybody is listening, because geopolitics and abjectly incompetent world leadership.