2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2535517 6-Aug-2020 06:59

tdgeek:

100%. Its understandable that no one wants to get a test as it was over ages ago (public mentality) If a CT turned up anywhere, I feel that those in that area would dive in deep to comply. Kiwis are conservative. Mask, get the app etc, I can easily see that as we don't what level 4, people would act. Thats just my opinion.

I see this more a function of where we get CT popping up. Somewhere like Queenstown is easy to seal off. A town or a small community is easy: No stopping and the locals stay indoors.

Somewhere like Auckland, where you have people travelling across the region to work and then pick up kids from school, etc, won't work.

tdgeek

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#2535520 6-Aug-2020 07:19

GV27:

I see this more a function of where we get CT popping up. Somewhere like Queenstown is easy to seal off. A town or a small community is easy: No stopping and the locals stay indoors.

Somewhere like Auckland, where you have people travelling across the region to work and then pick up kids from school, etc, won't work.

It wont work? Ok. What do you suggest? If it popped up in a suburb you would want that suburb locked down. Just as you can seal off Queenstown, you seal of a boundary within Auckland. WFH, school from home. Given that it wont be a case of every other person is infected initially, workplace employees can get tested, if all clear, that group can drive to work, work, and go home to isolation. Ideal for larger workplaces, manufacturers etc

But for all the complaining here about our poor border control (yeah thats the one that has no apparent CT in close to 100 days, almost a third of a year) its easy to say it wont work and offer no solution

kingdragonfly

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#2535525 6-Aug-2020 07:34

I saw this Atlantic article called How the Pandemic Defeated America, posted by @Neb

It mentioned that COVID-19 is a “Goldilocks” virus: just right to spread like crazy.

If you’ve played “Plague, Inc,” you’d have learned what it takes to wipe out simulated humanity in a simulated world. It also partially teaches what makes an unsuccessful virus.

Contrary to most zombie movie logic, an extremely contagious virus with obvious symptoms means the virus will not spread far.

In the game and in real life, poor health care systems, anti-vaxxers and anti-science help viruses.

And on that light note...

This Game GOT BANNED In China, from February.

Plague Inc

Fan Choice FRIGHTday

You guys chose Plague, Inc for today's video and it's scary how fast my Coronavirus spread.. wash your hands often!!

GV27

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#2535526 6-Aug-2020 07:37

tdgeek:

It wont work? Ok. What do you suggest? If it popped up in a suburb you would want that suburb locked down. Just as you can seal off Queenstown, you seal of a boundary within Auckland. WFH, school from home. Given that it wont be a case of every other person is infected initially, workplace employees can get tested, if all clear, that group can drive to work, work, and go home to isolation. Ideal for larger workplaces, manufacturers etc

They tried this in Melbourne - the central suburbs got locked off first but it didn't work. Given how much Aucklanders travel each day across Auckland, once it's in one part of Auckland it would be in most of the others in a day or two.

It does allow for a more targeted approach of things like wage subsidies etc, but they would be a compliance nightmare.

tdgeek

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#2535527 6-Aug-2020 07:40

GV27:

tdgeek:

It wont work? Ok. What do you suggest? If it popped up in a suburb you would want that suburb locked down. Just as you can seal off Queenstown, you seal of a boundary within Auckland. WFH, school from home. Given that it wont be a case of every other person is infected initially, workplace employees can get tested, if all clear, that group can drive to work, work, and go home to isolation. Ideal for larger workplaces, manufacturers etc

They tried this in Melbourne - the central suburbs got locked off first but it didn't work. Given how much Aucklanders travel each day across Auckland, once it's in one part of Auckland it would be in most of the others in a day or two.

It does allow for a more targeted approach of things like wage subsidies etc, but they would be a compliance nightmare.

Ok, we will do nothing

GV27

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#2535550 6-Aug-2020 08:35

tdgeek:

Ok, we will do nothing

I don't think 'nothing' is an option - but the reality of Auckland travel patterns is you'd have to shut all of it down - postcode by postcode would be ineffective.

Allow through-traffic on SH1 and SH16/20 by all means, but today, for instance, I'll be West, Central and East Auckland. If Covid19 pops up in one of those areas there'll be hundreds of thousands of people potentially taking it with them somewhere else. Locking it up bit by bit would be ineffective - you'd have to do the whole lot at once.

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Fred99

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#2535558 6-Aug-2020 08:53

One of the reasons WHO as a general rule opposes travel bans is that practically you've got to give prior notice of the ban, that encourages infected people to flee areas where there are outbreaks, thus spreading the disease faster.

If there was an announcement that there was going to be a 6 week lockdown in Auckland in say 24 hours - a lot of people will flee. However if you don't give some notice, then all sorts of other problems are created.

1101

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#2535572 6-Aug-2020 09:34

GV27:

I don't think 'nothing' is an option - but the reality of Auckland travel patterns is you'd have to shut all of it down - postcode by postcode would be ineffective.

Allow through-traffic on SH1 and SH16/20 by all means, but today, for instance, I'll be West, Central and East Auckland. If Covid19 pops up in one of those areas there'll be hundreds of thousands of people potentially taking it with them somewhere else. Locking it up bit by bit would be ineffective - you'd have to do the whole lot at once.

Its just a matter of being determined to do it properly. Lockdown suburbs without exceptions.
You are forced to stay in the house , you dont travel except to specific supermarkets . You dont go to the beach, you dont wander the streets or go for walks.
You block of main roads & motorway onramps/offramps around that suburb
You have a road blocks checking traffic

You make a determined effort and do it properly .
You dont allow exceptions for haircuts or bike rides :-)

Of course by that stage, chances are it would have allready spread around to other parts of the city
Its just a matter of either giving up or making a no excuses effort to contain it .

I see some media are alleady making noises & complaining that NZ should open the boarders (Mike Hosking) . So learn nothing from the recent past I guess .

Oblivian

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#2535623 6-Aug-2020 10:30

GV27:

They tried this in Melbourne - the central suburbs got locked off first but it didn't work. Given how much Aucklanders travel each day across Auckland, once it's in one part of Auckland it would be in most of the others in a day or two.

It does allow for a more targeted approach of things like wage subsidies etc, but they would be a compliance nightmare.

Suburban didn't work there for a number of issues. Already highlighted in media releases and explained why after the fact.

They were already behind the timeline

Workers still went across town to work. Outside the 'locked' area (because working and school was still allowed) And then later cause a popup elsewhere

People didn't stay home if sick

People didn't stay home waiting for results/showing symptoms

That's why there is now a $4890 instant fine for those people not staying home when door knocks are made.

I thought it had been made somewhat clear a time ago our area restrictions would differ here to localised lvl4 restrictions. We can't really compare suburb level scenarios to them. They're only following our play books now.

Our lockdown = lockdown. Their lockdown = still go for a haircut or shops.. until now. And like to think it's not hard for employers/staffing peers to work out which staff in such a situation had left any 'locked' areas announced. Of course vic never did anything about restricting work travel.

frankv

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#2535635 6-Aug-2020 10:52

Oblivian:

They were already behind the timeline

You're *always* behind the timeline. By the time that CT makes itself obvious, you're at least 3 days behind, and probably much more. Even if you're *really* lucky and random testing finds your only carrier before they infect anyone, it'll be another day or more before you get results.

Oblivian

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#2535648 6-Aug-2020 11:17

frankv:

You're *always* behind the timeline. By the time that CT makes itself obvious, you're at least 3 days behind, and probably much more. Even if you're *really* lucky and random testing finds your only carrier before they infect anyone, it'll be another day or more before you get results.

Well, yes. But I was referring to their actual timeline

Early-July when they start actually telling people what they can and can't do and do the suburban lockdons referred to 'that didn't work' - Didn't work likely as a large contributor because of the delays you mention and I was reinforcing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#July_2020

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tdgeek

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#2535654 6-Aug-2020 11:25

Yes, there was plenty of time spent looking after the economy before they realised they had to act, seeds sown all over the place by then

Oblivian

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#2535777 6-Aug-2020 13:36

two things will come of todays standup and subsequent media headlines.

Panic buying of masks (and more)

or, 'They're scare mongering and shouldn't be!!!!!

Just a reinforcement to something a few of us here seem to be looking into. A stash required on hand at home for if/when any lvl2 changes are implemented at a min you will need one in enclosed spaces (that's basically supermarkets along with public transport they mention going by previous lockdown encounters)

Watch live: Every Kiwi home needs masks - Health Minister; no new Covid cases today

msukiwi

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#2535779 6-Aug-2020 13:39

I vote for:

Panic buying of masks (and more)

ezbee

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#2535794 6-Aug-2020 14:04

Fred99:

One of the reasons WHO as a general rule opposes travel bans is that practically you've got to give prior notice of the ban, that encourages infected people to flee areas where there are outbreaks, thus spreading the disease faster.

If there was an announcement that there was going to be a 6 week lockdown in Auckland in say 24 hours - a lot of people will flee. However if you don't give some notice, then all sorts of other problems are created.

It is possible though, if you remember what happened with 911.

However you do have to deal with fallout as various Governments will object to the economic harm done to their airlines and businesses.

Best outcomes would result from minimum warning.

Countrywide , or Island wide is much easier due to natural boarders and everyone on the same level.

Having people on one side of a street restricted and people on other side not so easy.

Main thing is whatever you do you need to do it quickly as your data is already a week or two behind the infection.

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