2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2560327 8-Sep-2020 14:22

Oblivian:

Oblivian:

Rough check from 31st when it was announced as a 'mini cluster' within the AKL one.. cause 1 sounds better than 2. Is about 30

aug 31 - 15 total
1 sept - undefined - "The five new community cases are all clearly epidemiologically linked to cases that are either epidemiologically or genomically linked to the Auckland cluster."
2 sept +3
4 sept +3
5 sept +1
6 sept +4
7 sept +1

8 Sept +4 :/

Not good . I am now looking at what the MOH media release doesn't say when they announce cases. Also have they given up on the daily 1pm standups?

I see there are 4 new community cases, all linked to the more recent church mini cluster. But unlike yesterday, where they told us details of both cases, it doesn't do that today. It doesn't say that they were already in the isolation centre, or if they are close family contacts or already in isolation. Total lack of information IMO. This is why IMO we need the daily standups to allow reporters to ask the questions.

Testing numbers have also fallen way back. We are doing more border testing now, which are in these numbers, so the numbers being tested in the community must not be very large. IMO the testing numbers should be broken down, like they do with border cases, so we know exactly how many tests are occurring in the community.

When we drop down a level, it is almost like people think that it is over, and complacency occurs. Also I didn't see a singe person wearing a mask in my local town. Not that they are mandatory, but in level 3 there were a lot of people wearing them, but not anymore.

DS248

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#2560339 8-Sep-2020 14:50

WHO special envoy David Nabarro on responses to Covid-19, and the next pandemic

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/who-expert-on-nzs-response-and-the-next-pandemic

1101

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#2560342 8-Sep-2020 14:55

mattwnz:

Also I didn't see a singe person wearing a mask in my local town. Not that they are mandatory, but in level 3 there were a lot of people wearing them, but not anymore.

Im seeing just the opposite , Nth shore Ak. At supermarkets the vast majority are wearing masks.
Just at normal shops / petrol stations possibly 50% (at a guess)
Just walking the streets , where there are no others , I see very few wearing masks, they arnt really needed there.

However, the vast majority dont scan the barcodes at entrances, just walk straight past them.
Locally , from what Ive seen , 90% + dont scan (at a guess) .

ockel

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#2560351 8-Sep-2020 15:13

mattwnz:

Not good . I am now looking at what the MOH media release doesn't say when they announce cases. Also have they given up on the daily 1pm standups?

I see there are 4 new community cases, all linked to the more recent church mini cluster. But unlike yesterday, where they told us details of both cases, it doesn't do that today. It doesn't say that they were already in the isolation centre, or if they are close family contacts or already in isolation. Total lack of information IMO. This is why IMO we need the daily standups to allow reporters to ask the questions.

Testing numbers have also fallen way back. We are doing more border testing now, which are in these numbers, so the numbers being tested in the community must not be very large. IMO the testing numbers should be broken down, like they do with border cases, so we know exactly how many tests are occurring in the community.

When we drop down a level, it is almost like people think that it is over, and complacency occurs. Also I didn't see a singe person wearing a mask in my local town. Not that they are mandatory, but in level 3 there were a lot of people wearing them, but not anymore.

Given that Countdown New Lynn is being deep cleaned following a Covid positive person visiting on Friday 4th September it would appear that not all new cases are those already isolating.

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dejadeadnz

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#2560352 8-Sep-2020 15:21

frankv:

Your argument could equally be applied to many aspects of life in NZ (excluding food, water, and housing). How much are you going to reduce people's quality of life for not much gain? For some people, watching (or participating in) sports is an important part of their life. Next, you'll need to define "spectator sports". Is Saturday morning schoolkid rugby a spectator sport? How about white water kayaking? Lawn bowls?

I've got news for you: I (and I would venture many other people) don't care about the "need" (there is simply no "need" in the strictest moral sense of the word) to watch sport, subject to the following proviso. If the legitimately elected government decide to ban sports in reliance upon serious and proper expert advice that banning of such related gatherings will be beneficial to public health outcomes that broadly outweigh the perceived or actual gain of these events , that will be the end of the matter for me. The law is the law and I will follow it. And I expect the police to be prepared to enforce it, to the point of arresting all breachers and to use proportionate force (including deadly force where justified) to arrest them, just as they are empowered to do so in respect of any other law that they enforce. If you, I or anybody don't like the decisions the government's making, there's an election coming up or you can resort to the courts.

Facile and open-ended arguments about freedoms or some kind of imaginary god given right to do X, Y and Z or to make one's living a particular way aren't relevant within the NZ constitutional, legal and political framework. Freedoms can be subject to reasonable limitations that are demonstrably justified in a liberal and democratic society under the NZBORA.

mattwnz

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#2560362 8-Sep-2020 15:30

ockel:

mattwnz:

Not good . I am now looking at what the MOH media release doesn't say when they announce cases. Also have they given up on the daily 1pm standups?

I see there are 4 new community cases, all linked to the more recent church mini cluster. But unlike yesterday, where they told us details of both cases, it doesn't do that today. It doesn't say that they were already in the isolation centre, or if they are close family contacts or already in isolation. Total lack of information IMO. This is why IMO we need the daily standups to allow reporters to ask the questions.

Testing numbers have also fallen way back. We are doing more border testing now, which are in these numbers, so the numbers being tested in the community must not be very large. IMO the testing numbers should be broken down, like they do with border cases, so we know exactly how many tests are occurring in the community.

When we drop down a level, it is almost like people think that it is over, and complacency occurs. Also I didn't see a singe person wearing a mask in my local town. Not that they are mandatory, but in level 3 there were a lot of people wearing them, but not anymore.

Given that Countdown New Lynn is being deep cleaned following a Covid positive person visiting on Friday 4th September it would appear that not all new cases are those already isolating.

Just saw that announcement now. It would then appear that either they are not self isolating, or they weren't picked up a a close contact, or the MOH didn't contact them in time. IMO these types of holes will put us back into level 3/4 again, as noone with Covid should be at a supermarket if all the processes have been followed, and everyone was doing things right. Then if we are also not doing that much testing, we are likely not going to pickup all new cases either. It sounds like this person has done the right thing and got a test. But this is why I think the border shouldn't have been opened for a few weeks to see how level 2.5 works out for Auckland. That person could have just as easily traveled to Queenstown if they didn't know they were a close contact, or weren't contacted or detected by the MOH as a close contact. I don't think it is looking all that promising. I would like to see the MOH having a set target of 70,000 tests a week continuing.

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concordnz

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#2560392 8-Sep-2020 16:04

It's pointless having a testing target - if people can't be bothered getting tested.....
New Zealand hasn't got the 'stomach' to rewrite the Bill of Rights to something 'functional' in the face of a pandemic it did not consider.

We are simply left with 'encouraging' people to get tested.

How do we do that effectively? - clearly the Prime Minister & Dr Ashfield asking them too - is simply Not working.....

Do we require businesses to provide test results every 14 days - and they get $60 for every staff member/test result they submit?

GV27

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#2560397 8-Sep-2020 16:08

dejadeadnz:

I've got news for you: I (and I would venture many other people) don't care about the "need" (there is simply no "need" in the strictest moral sense of the word) to watch sport, subject to the following proviso. If the legitimately elected government decide to ban sports in reliance upon serious and proper expert advice that banning of such related gatherings will be beneficial to public health outcomes that broadly outweigh the perceived or actual gain of these events , that will be the end of the matter for me. The law is the law and I will follow it.

That's a tad more pragmatic than arguing that banning spectator sport would have no consequences, which I suspect many event staff and organisers around the country would disagree with.

Having said that crowds probably add very little given the risk at the moment and actually holding the fixtures behind closed doors will probably be how things are done for a little while. At least the televised games are worth something to the sporting bodies.

KrazyKid

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#2560399 8-Sep-2020 16:14

mattwnz:

Just saw that announcement now. It would then appear that either they are not self isolating, or they weren't picked up a a close contact, or the MOH didn't contact them in time. IMO these types of holes will put us back into level 3/4 again, as noone with Covid should be at a supermarket if all the processes have been followed, and everyone was doing things right. Then if we are also not doing that much testing, we are likely not going to pickup all new cases either. It sounds like this person has done the right thing and got a test. But this is why I think the border shouldn't have been opened for a few weeks to see how level 2.5 works out for Auckland. That person could have just as easily traveled to Queenstown if they didn't know they were a close contact, or weren't contacted or detected by the MOH as a close contact. I don't think it is looking all that promising. I would like to see the MOH having a set target of 70,000 tests a week continuing.

It seems to me that people like to assume the worst rumors abound at the moment. I'm honestly not sure the church and its people are doing wrong here.
Perhaps if they gathered for prayer during lockdown recently, but that story does seem like rumor to me.
Church communities and Pacific Island peoples are way more social than many. That is not a fauilt, but a good thing.

Contact tracing and test results are not instantaneous.

I can easily see a scenario where Person A was tested while asymptomatic on Thursday. The results came back Friday.
Person A only recalled the meeting with person B on a second interview on Saturday.
Person B was isolated Saturday and was tested on Sunday and the result was reported back as positive on Monday.
It then gets reported in the Media today.

In such a case why would Person B not be shopping on Friday?
And the MoH did what what they could.

Maybe it didn't happen like this and a press conference might help, but seeing some of the recent pressers I wouldn't be holding my breath.
Election season is upon us :(

mattwnz

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#2560413 8-Sep-2020 16:27

concordnz: It's pointless having a testing target - if people can't be bothered getting tested.....
New Zealand hasn't got the 'stomach' to rewrite the Bill of Rights to something 'functional' in the face of a pandemic it did not consider.

We are simply left with 'encouraging' people to get tested.

How do we do that effectively? - clearly the Prime Minister & Dr Ashfield asking them too - is simply Not working.....

Do we require businesses to provide test results every 14 days - and they get $60 for every staff member/test result they submit?

Aren't we fining workers at the border though that refuse to take a test, which I thought was an interesting move? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12362571

Some form of incentive to take a test IMO is a good idea, as long as people have symptoms, or are in a certain area or group that is more likely to be infected. Free masks seemed to work. Going down levels only works longer term, if we pick up new cases as soon as they occur.

mattwnz

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#2560419 8-Sep-2020 16:37

KrazyKid:

mattwnz:

Just saw that announcement now. It would then appear that either they are not self isolating, or they weren't picked up a a close contact, or the MOH didn't contact them in time. IMO these types of holes will put us back into level 3/4 again, as noone with Covid should be at a supermarket if all the processes have been followed, and everyone was doing things right. Then if we are also not doing that much testing, we are likely not going to pickup all new cases either. It sounds like this person has done the right thing and got a test. But this is why I think the border shouldn't have been opened for a few weeks to see how level 2.5 works out for Auckland. That person could have just as easily traveled to Queenstown if they didn't know they were a close contact, or weren't contacted or detected by the MOH as a close contact. I don't think it is looking all that promising. I would like to see the MOH having a set target of 70,000 tests a week continuing.

It seems to me that people like to assume the worst rumors abound at the moment. I'm honestly not sure the church and its people are doing wrong here.
Perhaps if they gathered for prayer during lockdown recently, but that story does seem like rumor to me.
Church communities and Pacific Island peoples are way more social than many. That is not a fauilt, but a good thing.

Contact tracing and test results are not instantaneous.

I can easily see a scenario where Person A was tested while asymptomatic on Thursday. The results came back Friday.
Person A only recalled the meeting with person B on a second interview on Saturday.
Person B was isolated Saturday and was tested on Sunday and the result was reported back as positive on Monday.
It then gets reported in the Media today.

In such a case why would Person B not be shopping on Friday?
And the MoH did what what they could.

Maybe it didn't happen like this and a press conference might help, but seeing some of the recent pressers I wouldn't be holding my breath.
Election season is upon us :(

I think if they are contacted as a close contact, they are then required to self isolate for 14 days, regardless of any test results. It is the 14 days that matters, as tests may not be accurate. If they then develop symptoms within those 14 days, then they get tested. Although I understand they are now also probably testing all close contact, whether or not they have symptoymns or not.

I don't know if people are have done anything wrong either. But people are only human, and the processes largely relies on peoples memory, and common sense, and some people won't do the right thing. eg Some people were flying out of Auckland while it was in level 3 lockdown, without a valid reason to do so, as has been previously reported.

The TV program border control shows that many people tick box on custom forms, that they aren't bringing in raw food etc, but then the border control opens up peoples suitcases and they can be full of food, and the people often say they didn't realize they had this food , or say they didn't understand it meant they couldn't bring in this type of food . A lot of these people that are caught out are just average law abiding people.

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concordnz

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#2560440 8-Sep-2020 17:08

mattwnz:
Aren't we fining workers at the border though that refuse to take a test, which I thought was an interesting move? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12362571

Some form of incentive to take a test IMO is a good idea, as long as people have symptoms, or are in a certain area or group that is more likely to be infected. Free masks seemed to work. Going down levels only works longer term, if we pick up new cases as soon as they occur.

Interesting - I'm not actually sure if 'fines' will work.
It would be far better to be able to 'fire'/release people who did not want to comply with the safety procedures - and employ people who were happy to do the right thing.

I'd rather 'remove' those that don't want to comply - before they work to intentionally sabotage the efforts of people doing the right thing.

Handle9

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#2560443 8-Sep-2020 17:16

FineWine:

GV27:

I suspect the All Blacks calendar is going to end up looking more like a domestic Lions tour than anything else this year.

We might get the Australians in for a few Bledisloe games but I'd be surprised at this point.

Give me the All Blacks vs Thames Valley RFC and take it to the provinces IMO.

AND broadcast Free-To-Air NOT on Sky❗️

The government should mandate ALL National teams games/sports should be permitted to broadcast Free-To-Air due to the new norm of social distancing.

I'm assuming you are happy for the government to compensate Sky and the Rugby Union for their loss of income?

Handle9

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#2560444 8-Sep-2020 17:18

GV27:

I suspect the All Blacks calendar is going to end up looking more like a domestic Lions tour than anything else this year.

We might get the Australians in for a few Bledisloe games but I'd be surprised at this point.

I agree. As much as I enjoy rugby I can't see a moral reason to allow them to travel when so many New Zealanders can't return home. It would be quite unfair to allow one business (with a very high profile) to do so when many other businesses can't get their staff back in the country.

dejadeadnz

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#2560447 8-Sep-2020 17:30

GV27:

That's a tad more pragmatic than arguing that banning spectator sport would have no consequences, which I suspect many event staff and organisers around the country would disagree with.

Having said that crowds probably add very little given the risk at the moment and actually holding the fixtures behind closed doors will probably be how things are done for a little while. At least the televised games are worth something to the sporting bodies.

In the current environment, the brutal reality that must be accepted by anyone in any kind of business reliant on a bums on seats model is this: if you expect to be able to generate the same revenue as previously based on the same numbers of bums on seats, you're dreaming. If your business or costs base are such that you can't pivot significantly, you are dead one way or another. The government should not in any way, shape or form attempt to prop up the inevitably dying -- these businesses dying quickly is a favour to all. Yes, there will be some people who'll be going bankrupt and never to have a house again through no fault of their own + insert all kinds of tragic stories. But unless the government somehow steps in as a bad luck insurer of the last resort (with all the attendant future moral hazards), it is what it is. No amount of crying over spilt milk (this isn't directed at you but more at the usual lobby groups) will change this.

The other thing as well is that the benefits of professional sports tend to accrue to the governing bodies, employed/related staff, and players. I'd be very slow to give disproportionate weight to these people's views relative to the welfare of many, many other people.

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