Nissan LEAF - General

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#1948632 30-Jan-2018 14:46

happyfunball:

MikeAqua:

Yes I was referring to new (or near new) cars.

Your personal experience of a used car increasing in value demonstrates a shortage of used vehicles. For serious uptake there needs to be new EVs purchased in significant quantities, which means they need to be cheaper.

New EV's are much more expensive in NZ compared to other countries due to the lack of subsidies here, unlike Japan, the US, Europe etc. where there are significant rebates for purchasing a new EV.

A subsidy doesn't change the cost, just who pays it.

Manufacturers should simply be producing EVs cheaper.

If you think about EVs from a technology rather than automotive perspective, the constrained supply and high prices are a familiar tactic.

Mike

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#1948668 30-Jan-2018 15:37

B-mode (battery regeneration) is limited to Dec 2012 and more recent x and g spec models.

Does anyone know if this is a hardware thing or a software thing? The question I'm getting at... is it possible to have an S model or earlier model leaf to run a b-mode through a software or hardware hack?

SaltyNZ

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#1948687 30-Jan-2018 15:59

Well, it looks like it's going to work out just nicely for me. I won't be back at work till next week (haha!) but today I took the kids to MOTAT, which is if anything a little further than work. I started with just a touch less than a full charge - about 95% - and drove there and back without recharging. The air conditioning was off for the trip over and on most of the way back. By the end of the trip it said 26km remaining. So it looks like I can do a normal work-day with range for a little side-excursion as well before I need to consider stopping to top up somewhere.

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Aredwood

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#1948819 30-Jan-2018 18:53

MikeAqua:
happyfunball:

MikeAqua:

Yes I was referring to new (or near new) cars.

Your personal experience of a used car increasing in value demonstrates a shortage of used vehicles. For serious uptake there needs to be new EVs purchased in significant quantities, which means they need to be cheaper.

New EV's are much more expensive in NZ compared to other countries due to the lack of subsidies here, unlike Japan, the US, Europe etc. where there are significant rebates for purchasing a new EV.

A subsidy doesn't change the cost, just who pays it.

Manufacturers should simply be producing EVs cheaper.

If you think about EVs from a technology rather than automotive perspective, the constrained supply and high prices are a familiar tactic.

EVs are expensive partly due to them having a lot of new technologies, mostly in relation to the battery. While ICE powertrains are widely available.

If I wanted to start my own car company, there are lots of companies that will wholesale me complete ICE powertrains. Both Hyundai and Great Wall used Mitsubishi engines and gearboxes in their early days. While Ssangyoung licenced a lot of Mercedes designs.

In time pricing will reduce. I'm sure the first motorcars cost more than getting a horse and buggy. And gas stations would have been rare back then. While grass to feed the horse would have been widely available.

PhantomNVD

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#1948845 30-Jan-2018 20:09

And “subsidies “ don’t have to actually ‘cost’... how about simply dropping import duties and GST for ‘pure’ BEV’s and thus decreasing the intro cost by 15-45%?

MikeAqua

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#1949118 31-Jan-2018 10:54

PhantomNVD: And “subsidies “ don’t have to actually ‘cost’... how about simply dropping import duties and GST for ‘pure’ BEV’s and thus decreasing the intro cost by 15-45%?

That's still a cost - lost revenue for the govt which must be made up elsewhere (or service delivery reduced).

I also wonder if subsidies/exemptions are one reason EVs are so expensive.

Manufacturers may be setting a price that is comparable with ICEVs after subsidy/exemption. Most manufacturers also sell ICEVs and don't want to cannibalise that market too quickly.

Tesla is an exception, I'm sure they would love to crank out Model 3s as cheaply and quickly as they could.

I think any form of subsidy shelters manufacturers from market forces that would otherwise force them to drive their prices down.

Mike

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#1949217 31-Jan-2018 12:54

MikeAqua:

Most manufacturers also sell ICEVs and don't want to cannibalise that market too quickly.

I don't see how it's cannabalising any sales for them. Cannibalisation implies that people are switching to more desirable items at a lower margin. If anything they're making a premium on EVs at the moment, so they would be netting more profit from each sale, not less.

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MikeAqua

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#1949233 31-Jan-2018 13:36

SaltyNZ:

MikeAqua:

Most manufacturers also sell ICEVs and don't want to cannibalise that market too quickly.

I don't see how it's cannabalising any sales for them. Cannibalisation implies that people are switching to more desirable items at a lower margin. If anything they're making a premium on EVs at the moment, so they would be netting more profit from each sale, not less.

Manufacturers have significant investment in existing ICEV vehicle production. They wouldn't like to see ICEVs rapidly replaced by EVs because it will reduce the revenue streams from some big assets and/or may require large assets to be substantially devalued and/or retooled.

A gradual transition works for ICEV manufcaturers. So you see a price premium on their EVs (before subsidies), sluggish improvements and relatively low fit-out levels.

Tesla by contrast don't have anything invested in ICEV production so they are going as fast as they can. Their vehicles are well equipped and perform better than most EVs. They are also trying to beat the price down.

Unfortunately Musk seems to be emptying the entire clip into his foot on the production side of things. Innovation and production are quite different disciplines. I hope they get it sorted, but you wouldn't catch me risking a deposit for a Tesla 3 (if I could afford one).

Mike

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#1949235 31-Jan-2018 13:39

Aredwood:

In time pricing will reduce. I'm sure the first motorcars cost more than getting a horse and buggy. And gas stations would have been rare back then. While grass to feed the horse would have been widely available.

Exactly. And at that time cars were purchased new only by wealthy people, businesses and governments.

Mike

happyfunball

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#1949316 31-Jan-2018 14:33

MikeAqua:

I also wonder if subsidies/exemptions are one reason EVs are so expensive.

Manufacturers may be setting a price that is comparable with ICEVs after subsidy/exemption. Most manufacturers also sell ICEVs and don't want to cannibalise that market too quickly.

Car manufacturers are (all?) public companies, the cost of a vehicle and its margins are a matter of public (investor) record. They lose money or barely break even on smaller cars and make money on the big expensive ones, its been that way forever. They openly admit this. If you buy a SUV or Pickup you are subsidising their EV program, which is not turning a profit, even *with* subsidies driving sales.

With EV's the companies are motivated by fear as much as profit. They are all afraid of some other company getting ahead and leaving them in the dust with outdated technology and falling sales. This is complicated by the fact that auto manufacturing is also a national interest for some countries, who have invested 10s of billions of taxpayer dollars in turning their economies into car exporters. There are factories just for making seats, lights, airbags etc. These are huge national employers, and nobody wants to see their car part factories become obsolete because another brand figured out EV's ahead of them.

SaltyNZ

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#1949491 31-Jan-2018 16:41

happyfunball:

With EV's the companies are motivated by fear as much as profit. They are all afraid of some other company getting ahead and leaving them in the dust with outdated technology and falling sales.

I can't say I'm very sympathetic. Elon Musk isn't god, and Teslas aren't magic. It didn't have to be Tesla that every EV owner wants: it could've been Toyota, or Ford, or any of the others. But they just didn't want to step up.

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wellygary

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#1949494 31-Jan-2018 16:49

SaltyNZ: It didn't have to be Tesla that every EV owner wants:

But can't get, because they are a) Extremely Expensive, or b) not being produced in enough numbers due to "production hell"

Given the model 3 pre-orders, if you want a new NZ Tesla before probably late 2019/2020 , you will probably need $100K+ to buy an S,

This is why Tesla might loose the EV race, Ramping up car production is not like web startup (which the stock trades like) - addition digital products/service can be "manufactured" almost instantly to meet demand,

Complex physical items like car, don't scale nearly as quick..

MikeAqua

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#1949511 31-Jan-2018 17:15

happyfunball:

Car manufacturers are (all?) public companies, the cost of a vehicle and its margins are a matter of public (investor) record.

I would be surprised if you find that detailed breakdown of reporting in annual reports etc. It wouldn't be legally required and would give away info to competitors.

The world's larger car manufacturers could make cars cheaply and well if they wanted to. Overall EVs are simpler and many systems and components are directly or easily transferable between ICEV and EV.

But as I said they want a soft transition. Also some components of EV technology (being newish) are changing faster than ICEVs, so manufacturers need to retain agility until the technology stabilises somewhat.

Mike

Dulouz

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#1950187 1-Feb-2018 15:40

Seems that leafs are now becoming very short in supply and the price is quickly rising. Personally, I blame this sub.

Amanon

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#1950223 1-Feb-2018 16:52

Dulouz:
Seems that leafs are now becoming very short in supply and the price is quickly rising. Personally, I blame this sub.

@Dulouz... this “sub”? What does that mean please?

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