2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › 2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

1 | ... | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | ... | 64

1230 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 812

Subscriber

#3471738 19-Mar-2026 15:53

wellygary:

HarmLessSolutions:

I suspect even Trump is coming to the realisation that he has lost control of this situation. (Or did you maybe miss the '/s' after your post?)

He was intending regime change, just not for the US (or NZ if our government don't start governing effectively soon).

Trump has not lost control of the situation,

He can stop it in an instant by halting the bombing of Iran and pulling Israel to heel... Whether he chooses to exert this control is up to him...

If this is the outcome he wants is a totally different question.... (although It sounds like Trumps patience with Israel is wearing thin)

Even the Prusisans knew that "No plan survives first contact with the enemy"...

Trump lost control of this when the first round of fire triggered Iran to unleash on the ME's energy infrastructure. That shouldn't have come as a surprise as Iran warned what their retaliation was going to be. At this stage the US is pretty much in damage control mode as the worlds energy supplies and economies take hits as a result of Iran's targeted strikes.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3471809 19-Mar-2026 17:38

fastbike:

So there is an update on the MBIE site showing current fuel stocks, both here and due to arrive. At first glance they look okay(ish):

However they helpfully break the on-water figure into week one and week two.

Week one has ten tankers, week two has one tanker.

Chat tells me Typical voyage times to NZ:

Singapore → NZ: ~10–14 days

South Korea → NZ: ~14–18 days

The last scheduled fuel delivery to New Zealand is the STI Magic, due at Mount Maunganui on 30 March. After that, there is no confirmed supply. (hat tip Nathan Surendan)

So my guess is that the government will try to keep calm and not panic people so they get to enjoy Easter and them slam us into full time rationing from early April, at which point we will be down to around 35 days of fuel. Rather than treat us like grown ups and introduce something like TEQs relatively soon.

Very good this is getting published, but hard to infer much from it, without knowing the regular cadence of shipping etc. At a cursory glance the drop from 10 ship's this period to 1 ship (with no diesel or Jet fuel) next period is terrifying, but I don't think there is enough info here to know if it is an issue.

The week 16 - 22 March is obviously an abnormally big week for deliveries, with 3 weeks of petrol, and around 2 weeks of both petrol and diesel.

Given this was published on the 15th, it is possible there is fast ship from Singapore that had not departed at time of publication, and still arrives within the 23 - 29th window.

There is a clear inconsistency between the top and bottom tables. Lower table shows 28 days of petrol in route, yet top table shows only 23.3 days. For diesel it is the opposite 14 days in lower table, and 23.4 on the upper table.

For comparison here is the prior week's data. Clearly on stoke of both petrol and diesel ran down substantially since, but possibly this due to a heap of shipments by chance landing in the 16-22nd week (and rather than the week before).

JarrodM

978 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 152

#3471811 19-Mar-2026 17:53

Does anyone know how that maths works? Petrol 23.3 days on-water in the first table, but the week split below adds up to 28 days? With both tables supposedly as at the same date/time??

Handle9

11927 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9683

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3471812 19-Mar-2026 18:15

JarrodM:

Does anyone know how that maths works? Petrol 23.3 days on-water in the first table, but the week split below adds up to 28 days? With both tables supposedly as at the same date/time??

It will take a little time for the 2020 immunologists to retrain as fuel analysts.

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3471894 20-Mar-2026 02:20

The security of supply picture took a turn for the worse today.

Israel struck some Oil and Gas gear of Irans, so Iran retaliated and struck some oil and gas gear in Qatar. USA has told Iran to quit attacking it's allies that haven't attacked them, and threatened a huge attack against their oil and gas gear if they do it again.

So the bear of strategic attacks has been pricked...

Iran has made a demand to the USA, but I don't se the USA accepting it.

USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, was being moved to the region, but due to a fire stated in the laundry (taking out 600 beds), stacked on top of existing plumbing issues, it is going to port for repairs.

In Aust, The politicians are pointing fingers at retailers for price gouging, And the public for panic buying. Message is the the regular volume of fuel is still arriving, but they are pretty quiet on anything longer term. Fuel station's seem quiet despite todays news. Assume people are running down the fuel they brought in the rush before the price hikes. Media is hyping shoping around (via apps) for cheaper fuel and stacking discounts if possible.

In NZ, it seems the first acknowledgement from government that we might have a shortage. Seems like there is a bit of a rush on fuel, and the odd outlet is running dry. Government is talking about targeted relief, but has ruled out reducing fuel exercise. I agree with the latter, we should not be shielding end users from the volatility in these fuel prices, especially given the environmental situaton.

Scott3

4177 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2990

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#3471895 20-Mar-2026 02:39

HarmLessSolutions:

Chatting with a friend who lives in Aussie but has been in New Plymouth recently to supervise rental property maintenance. His flight to AKL has been cancelled by AirNZ and there are no rental cars available to drive to AKL due I assume to others caught in the same trap.

We're booked to travel internationally in May/June but we're monitoring the situation closely and will curtail or cancel our travel as required by the situation as things worsen. At least we can drive our EV to Auckland to catch our international flight irrespective of fuel restrictions but do we really want to head off across the world if parts of it are still 'on fire'?

A lot will depend on where you are going. Places like USA (2% net importer), Canada (net exporter) are likely to be relatively fine regardless of the situation in the Gulf. Gulf region (of the war is ongoing) will have military risk, enough that I would stay away from that whole region. Sri Lanka has a 15L/ vehicle / week limit (40L for tourists), so any kind of long distance travel is basically out their. In Aust, there are stories of some people canceling remote area recreational trips, on the fear they may not be able to buy fuel to keep going.

Apple TV

Stream your favourite shows now on Apple TV (affiliate link).

cddt

1972 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1905

#3471899 20-Mar-2026 05:42

In a dash of schadenfreude, it turns out the war with Iran will make it much more costly to replace... the munitions used to bomb Iran.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/19/west-point-analysis-iran-war-costs

fastbike

448 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 321

#3471901 20-Mar-2026 05:56

Scott3:

fastbike:

So there is an update on the MBIE site showing current fuel stocks, both here and due to arrive. At first glance they look okay(ish):

However they helpfully break the on-water figure into week one and week two.

Week one has ten tankers, week two has one tanker.

Chat tells me Typical voyage times to NZ:

Singapore → NZ: ~10–14 days

South Korea → NZ: ~14–18 days

The last scheduled fuel delivery to New Zealand is the STI Magic, due at Mount Maunganui on 30 March. After that, there is no confirmed supply. (hat tip Nathan Surendan)

So my guess is that the government will try to keep calm and not panic people so they get to enjoy Easter and them slam us into full time rationing from early April, at which point we will be down to around 35 days of fuel. Rather than treat us like grown ups and introduce something like TEQs relatively soon.

Very good this is getting published, but hard to infer much from it, without knowing the regular cadence of shipping etc. At a cursory glance the drop from 10 ship's this period to 1 ship (with no diesel or Jet fuel) next period is terrifying, but I don't think there is enough info here to know if it is an issue.

The week 16 - 22 March is obviously an abnormally big week for deliveries, with 3 weeks of petrol, and around 2 weeks of both petrol and diesel.

Given this was published on the 15th, it is possible there is fast ship from Singapore that had not departed at time of publication, and still arrives within the 23 - 29th window.

There is a clear inconsistency between the top and bottom tables. Lower table shows 28 days of petrol in route, yet top table shows only 23.3 days. For diesel it is the opposite 14 days in lower table, and 23.4 on the upper table.

For comparison here is the prior week's data. Clearly on stoke of both petrol and diesel ran down substantially since, but possibly this due to a heap of shipments by chance landing in the 16-22nd week (and rather than the week before).

Kinda missing the point imho. Leaning into "hope" as the Kiwibank economist interviewed on RNZ Checkpoint yesterday, or worrying about some slight inconsistencies in timeframes as the response above, is avoiding engaging with the fact that the world and fossil fuel supplies have fundamentally changed since 28 Feb. That is 3 short weeks ago and already we are in trouble with higher prices hitting farmers, truckers and other industrial users, let alone people operating at the margin that are struggling to absorb a 50cent petrol price rise.

The next 3 weeks will be be an order of magnitude different again. I was talking to a guy last night who works for a national infrastructure operator and he was talking about their plan for when the modern version of carless days is introduced next week !

Time will tell whether this is idle gossip, or fact. But a government sitting on their hands and "hoping" the crisis will abate is no long credible. Will it reduce demand enough ? But if I had an Easter bookings involving travel and they have a refund clause I'd be invoking it now before you get caught without a booking or refund due to force majeure clauses.

Otautahi Christchurch

fastbike

448 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 321

#3471902 20-Mar-2026 06:02

Scott3:

In NZ, it seems the first acknowledgement from government that we might have a shortage. Seems like there is a bit of a rush on fuel, and the odd outlet is running dry. Government is talking about targeted relief, but has ruled out reducing fuel exercise. I agree with the latter, we should not be shielding end users from the volatility in these fuel prices, especially given the environmental situaton.

I agree that lowering excise is the worst possible response. I would prefer TEQs (read the paper, not so hard to stack on top of existing payments infrastructure) or some targeted relief. The trouble with targeted relief is the rules involving invariably miss some who need relief while rewarding those that do not.

Otautahi Christchurch

cddt

1972 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 1905

#3471904 20-Mar-2026 06:17

fastbike:

Kinda missing the point imho. Leaning into "hope" as the Kiwibank economist interviewed on RNZ Checkpoint yesterday, or worrying about some slight inconsistencies in timeframes as the response above, is avoiding engaging with the fact that the world and fossil fuel supplies have fundamentally changed since 28 Feb. That is 3 short weeks ago and already we are in trouble with higher prices hitting farmers, truckers and other industrial users, let alone people operating at the margin that are struggling to absorb a 50cent petrol price rise.

The next 3 weeks will be be an order of magnitude different again. I was talking to a guy last night who works for a national infrastructure operator and he was talking about their plan for when the modern version of carless days is introduced next week !

Time will tell whether this is idle gossip, or fact. But a government sitting on their hands and "hoping" the crisis will abate is no long credible. Will it reduce demand enough ? But if I had an Easter bookings involving travel and they have a refund clause I'd be invoking it now before you get caught without a booking or refund due to force majeure clauses.

Yep, fuel surcharges are only just beginning to flow through the supply chain. Every business has spent the last couple of weeks assessing how they will pass on a fuel surcharge, configuring invoicing systems, updating policies etc. already if they didn't already have this in place. Already thin margins means that as the logistics providers pass their surcharges through to customers, those customers will start to charge their customers more, who will in turn start to charge us (the consumer) more. Bad times ahead.

BlargHonk

176 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 131

#3471911 20-Mar-2026 07:57

So we have the last fuel vessel due to arrive on the 29th March that we know about? 9 days from now...

CoPilot says we usually receive 5-6x shipments per week and it takes 2-3 weeks for one to reach NZ.

I really hope that MBIE will say that there are more on the way, otherwise things will get rather ugly towards the end of April.

New World

Shop on-line at New World now for your groceries (affiliate link).

fastbike

448 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 321

#3471914 20-Mar-2026 08:05

BlargHonk:

So we have the last fuel vessel due to arrive on the 29th March that we know about? 9 days from now...

CoPilot says we usually receive 5-6x shipments per week and it takes 2-3 weeks for one to reach NZ.

I really hope that MBIE will say that there are more on the way, otherwise things will get rather ugly towards the end of April.

Nathan had provided the name of the vessel arriving 30 March, I linked to his post yesterday . But either way it is tight and after last night's attacks will not be easing anytime soon.

Otautahi Christchurch

HarmLessSolutions

1230 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 812

Subscriber

#3471918 20-Mar-2026 08:29

fastbike:

The last scheduled fuel delivery to New Zealand is the STI Magic, due at Mount Maunganui on 30 March. After that, there is no confirmed supply. (hat tip Nathan Surendan)

So my guess is that the government will try to keep calm and not panic people so they get to enjoy Easter and them slam us into full time rationing from early April, at which point we will be down to around 35 days of fuel. Rather than treat us like grown ups and introduce something like TEQs relatively soon.

According to MarineTracker the STI Magic is currently near Noumea and due to arrive in New Plymouth next Monday 23rd.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

MikeAqua

8031 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3820

#3471922 20-Mar-2026 08:49

Scott3:

USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, was being moved to the region, but due to a fire stated in the laundry (taking out 600 beds), stacked on top of existing plumbing issues, it is going to port for repairs.

Someone didn't clear the lint trap on the dryer.

Mike

HarmLessSolutions

1230 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 812

Subscriber

#3471924 20-Mar-2026 09:14

Scott3:

HarmLessSolutions:

Chatting with a friend who lives in Aussie but has been in New Plymouth recently to supervise rental property maintenance. His flight to AKL has been cancelled by AirNZ and there are no rental cars available to drive to AKL due I assume to others caught in the same trap.

We're booked to travel internationally in May/June but we're monitoring the situation closely and will curtail or cancel our travel as required by the situation as things worsen. At least we can drive our EV to Auckland to catch our international flight irrespective of fuel restrictions but do we really want to head off across the world if parts of it are still 'on fire'?

A lot will depend on where you are going. Places like USA (2% net importer), Canada (net exporter) are likely to be relatively fine regardless of the situation in the Gulf. Gulf region (of the war is ongoing) will have military risk, enough that I would stay away from that whole region. Sri Lanka has a 15L/ vehicle / week limit (40L for tourists), so any kind of long distance travel is basically out their. In Aust, there are stories of some people canceling remote area recreational trips, on the fear they may not be able to buy fuel to keep going.

Our booking is to the UK return via Perth in both directions. We purposely avoided flying through the US but I do see that a flight search through Qantas now defaults to the route through JFK as the cheapest option. Our booking cost $5,200 (for 2 adults) but now comes in as $7,000. As things worsen though we're increasely leaning towards a trip to Perth to see my brother there and canning the UK trip. I'll investigate refund options if we move to that option.

The rental vehicle situation I assumed was due to cancelled flights was wrong it seems. New Plymouth rental car co's have had a no one-way rental policy for some time to avoid depleting their cars on hand. I'm guessing that policy may also apply to other regional locations.

https://www.harmlesssolutions.co.nz/

1 | ... | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | ... | 64