Tesla Model 3

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#1524287 1-Apr-2016 20:38

Over 100,000 preorders and counting.

In perspective that is already twice as many vehicles as Tesla sold last year.

346km minimum on one overnight charge is enough for 90%+ of the personal transport vehicles entering Auckland city every day. +the performance aspect.

davidcole

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#1524304 1-Apr-2016 21:16

So has a proper nz price been released or are we still using currency conversion plus Apple tax plus government subsidies (/sarcasm)?

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frankv

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#1524310 1-Apr-2016 21:35

joker97:

SQLGeek:
No need to park at the airport, the Tesla will drive itself home & come get you when you land. Maybe not in 2017, but it's not that far away.

Hmm so this is the future of traffic congestion huh - every man's unmanned car(s) trying to go places!

Hmmm... why go all the way home? Just drive to the nearest traffic jam and park in it.

Fred99

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#1524455 2-Apr-2016 10:01

davidcole: So has a proper nz price been released or are we still using currency conversion plus Apple tax plus government subsidies (/sarcasm)?

Pretty much a given that it's going to be priced at Audi A4 / BMW 3 series sedan base model price, perhaps a little less depending on how they handle distribution/support.

MTA stats show how few of those models are actually sold NZ new, a few hundred a year. For example 11 NZ new Audi A4s were sold in NZ in Jan 2016, but 95 used-import A4s were sold.

I guess that shows that in the medium sized luxury car segment, fewer kiwis are prepared to part with the $70k entry fee than the impression one might have by the numbers of that model seen on the roads. The vast majority are used imports.

From that, presuming that base model Tesla 3 will be about $70k and much more for dual motor variants, I don't expect they'll be selling here at volumes where they'll be a common sight on NZ roads. Also at the price range where for those who can afford, fuel prices for Audi A4 - which are very fuel efficient ICE cars anyway - isn't going to be an issue. Rapid depreciation and low used resale value might be though, at least with a Tesla 3, you'd be shielded from that - until and if used imports start flooding the market.

https://www.mta.org.nz/2016vehiclestats

Ham

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#1524538 2-Apr-2016 12:02

I would like to know operating costs before I change to an electric car... The new Mondeo's IIRC use 4.1L diesel per 100km, at ~$1/L diesel then ~$5/100km is quite good considering I don't have to worry about range or long term battery degradation/failure. Remember that you will soon have to pay RUC on EV's as well.

Fred99

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#1524578 2-Apr-2016 13:08

Ham: I would like to know operating costs before I change to an electric car... The new Mondeo's IIRC use 4.1L diesel per 100km, at ~$1/L diesel then ~$5/100km is quite good considering I don't have to worry about range or long term battery degradation/failure. Remember that you will soon have to pay RUC on EV's as well.

Sure - RUC (ie $6.20 / 100km) for the diesel car vs none for an electric car (for now) is significant - and won't be very popular if introduced for plug-in electric cars.

I don't believe that battery (replacement) cost is such an issue, as you need to offset that against long-term cost of maintenance for complex common-rail turbo-diesels - which is a bit more of a lottery, but some of the repair costs you might easily expect to encounter once out of warranty would make an onion cry.

Ham

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#1524592 2-Apr-2016 13:45

RUC for EV's is already a thing... IIRC the exemption expires next year? I could be wrong.

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benokobi

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#1524601 2-Apr-2016 14:18

Even if it costs as much as a petrol car to run it would still be quite compelling with all these awesome features. And it looks slick.

frankv

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#1524603 2-Apr-2016 14:24

So it's about $11.20/100km for diesel vehicle including RUC, vs about $13.60/100km for petrol ($1.70*8 litres).

If in an EV you do 20,000km/yr and have to replace a battery at $25k every 10 years (Nissan says that its LEAF battery pack will have 80 percent charge left after five years, and 70 percent after 10 years, retail price is estimated at US$18,000), that's $12.50/100km for the battery (i.e. $18.70/100km including RUC). Even if electricity was free, then it's still not a great deal. OTOH, you don't get the tractor noises and smell.

Of course, if you can put up with range < 224km, you can stretch out the replacement interval. You could bet that batteries will be much cheaper in 10 years. Or that you'll only have to replace dud cells rather than the whole battery. But chances are that (like your diesel/petrol powered car), you'll replace it in a lot less than 10 years. How much you'll get for it will depend on *other people's* perceptions of value.

wellygary

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#1524608 2-Apr-2016 14:47

Ham: RUC for EV's is already a thing... IIRC the exemption expires next year? I could be wrong.

The RUC exemptions for EVs in NZ expires in 2020, if not subsequently extended.

Looking at price At current ex rates and gst, this is a 60K car, so somewhere around 70 is a more likely nz price

Fred99

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#1524734 2-Apr-2016 18:15

I'm not agreeing with the cost comparisons above. It's not a great idea to use Euro economy figures for ICE cars - find the US EPA figures which are at least reasonably believable. Also it's not a great idea to use current fuel prices, perhaps a 5 year floating average may be reasonable. So I'd add 50% or more to those fuel cost calculations.

As for battery replacement cost - I have no idea. You can (as of yesterday) buy an entire Tesla 3 for less than the current replacement price of a Tesla S battery pack. (this rings an alarm bell with me). Musk has stated that his Gigaplant 1 reduces battery pack cost by 30%. He also sold 8 year battery warranty for Tesla S for US$8k, limited offer that's no longer available, but he's clearly wanting to create the impression that battery prices are going to drop massively. He has to deliver on that now - or he's going from hero to zero fast IMO.

What's happened over the past 24 hours is truly historic - selling pre-orders for > NZ$10 billion worth of cars in a day.

Musk has to deliver on that now - I can't guess if he can or not, but if he manages to pull it off, then the impact is massive. If he can't, then...

gzt

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#1524735 2-Apr-2016 18:24

Preorders have reached 200,000.

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#1524738 2-Apr-2016 18:30

Ah I thought that was the preorder number in NZ my bad - the USA

~~Excellent ... that's what, 1/5th of the entire fleet of cars in NZ?~~

~~I can soon bike in peace ... (I presume it has anti collision tech???)~~

Fred99

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#1524748 2-Apr-2016 18:48

gzt: Preorders have reached 200,000.

232,000 3 hours ago - according to Musk.

That's about double annual US sales of BMW 3 series in the US market, much more than Audi's total US sales for all models.

He's certainly proved there's a market out there for a car with those specs at that price.

BruceHamilton

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#1525231 3-Apr-2016 16:20

One of the reasons for the pre-orders is the loss of the US Govt subsidy of $7,500 once total Tesla production reaches 200,000 ( all models ). Tesla is expected to be close to 150,000 before Model 3 production starts. The subsidy declines to zero over the next 100,000 vehicles. I suspect some "pre-orders" may wish to sell their position in the queue for a premium.

I'd also note that the design of the constrained boot ( aka trunk ) access due to the glass roof has engendered quite a lot of negativity.

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