2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3469522 12-Mar-2026 17:01

What's really worrying is that the Iranians could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed pretty much indefinitely.

The navigable waterways are narrow and close offshore - easy artillery range.
So all they need to do is trundle a self-propelled 155mm gun out of a cave, bang off half a dozen rounds at a tanker, and trundle right back into the cave. Drive a regular-sized ute out of a shed, fire off an anti-shipping missile from the back and then drive back in under cover. Or toss a couple of sea mines into a fishing boat, drop the mines into the shipping lane and carry on fishing a few km away. Any boat bigger than a dinghy can be a minelayer.
You're looking at hundreds of kilometres of coast from Bandar Aftab to Konarak; impossible to police from the air only.

The Iranians only have to mount an attack from somewhere along that coast that once every couple of days and the Strait will stay shut.

The only way to stop that would be tens of thousands of boots on the ground occupying the territory

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#3469523 12-Mar-2026 17:04

MikeAqua:

How does that work practically? Let's pretend I have an EV. On week-days, my car isn't at home between 7:30am to and 6:00pm or later. It isn't being charge by solar. I'm likely to arrive home, plug it in (while I'm in the garage) at peak demand time and then go inside. Best case scenario, there is some sort of differential pricing and I have a setup that automatically delays charging until 11pm. Obviously, that all changes if the car is at home during the day (WFH, retired, work at night etc). If money is limited, a battery bank at home makes more sense financially. Cheaper, and always there to capture surplus energy.

Considering much of home electricity usage is water heating, IMO it makes the most economic sense to hook the PV panels up to hot water cylinders and to store that energy as heated water while the sun is shining. I am not sure if that would actually work out a lot cheaper over the long term than getting a heatpump HWC. But if the person is home all day and can charge the car during sunlight hours, then that also makes sense. Probably more financial sense than selling the power back to the grid during offpeak times.

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#3469526 12-Mar-2026 17:07

PolicyGuy:

What's really worrying is that the Iranians could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed pretty much indefinitely.

Yeah, but they will basically be declaring war on Europe and China, which I think they're not prepared to do,,,

The Yanks don't appear to care.. and as I mentioned earlier they will feel much less hurt than Eu/Asia/ NZ+Aust

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#3469527 12-Mar-2026 17:09

PolicyGuy:

What's really worrying is that the Iranians could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed pretty much indefinitely.

This is why the Americans haven't bombed Iran before.

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#3469528 12-Mar-2026 17:12

wellygary:

PolicyGuy:

What's really worrying is that the Iranians could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed pretty much indefinitely.

Yeah, but they will basically be declaring war on Europe and China, which I think they're not prepared to do,,,

The Yanks don't appear to care.. and as I mentioned earlier they will feel much less hurt than Eu/Asia/ NZ+Aust

Iran is still supplying China and can do so while Jask is intact. They can put around a million barrels a day through there without transiting the straits. They don't really give a crap about Europe. The European powers can't effectively project force into the region.

The whole point of Irans strategy is to make the war untenable for the west.

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#3469529 12-Mar-2026 17:13

MikeAqua:

Let's pretend I have an EV. On week-days, my car isn't at home between 7:30am to and 6:00pm or later.

1 - some employers (including mine) provide free charging. Hopefully this spreads!

2 - the vast majority of people don't have long commutes and will likely get through the week on a single charge. No, it doesn't work for everyone, but it should work for the majority of people. My car does about 500 km on 40 litres of petrol, but I don't need to fill it to the brim every week. With a 30 km (return) commute, I only need 150 km of range per week, and that's if I'm working in the office five days.

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#3469534 12-Mar-2026 18:22

PolicyGuy:

What's really worrying is that the Iranians could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed pretty much indefinitely.

The navigable waterways are narrow and close offshore - easy artillery range.
So all they need to do is trundle a self-propelled 155mm gun out of a cave, bang off half a dozen rounds at a tanker, and trundle right back into the cave. Drive a regular-sized ute out of a shed, fire off an anti-shipping missile from the back and then drive back in under cover. Or toss a couple of sea mines into a fishing boat, drop the mines into the shipping lane and carry on fishing a few km away. Any boat bigger than a dinghy can be a minelayer.
You're looking at hundreds of kilometres of coast from Bandar Aftab to Konarak; impossible to police from the air only.

The Iranians only have to mount an attack from somewhere along that coast that once every couple of days and the Strait will stay shut.

The only way to stop that would be tens of thousands of boots on the ground occupying the territory

And greatly elevating the risk of another Vietnam or Afghanistan. US Navy veteran and commentator Malcolm Nance has recently said that: "If Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires then Iran is the funeral home of empires. It dresses you up and lays you into the coffin neatly. Then closes the lid."

He's not taking sides, he's just describing a realistic scenario.

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#3469592 12-Mar-2026 22:15

China is a big importer of oil product. There is no doubt supply restrictions will impact China, and perhaps more than the US. And, economic disruption among China's offshore trading partners and consumers - more or less everyone worldwide - will inevitably impact China.

For that reason China favors an immediate ceasefire. The aims of the US military action are unclear and have no defined endpoint. Iran for it's part is determined the Straits of Hormuz will remain practically impassable.

US in theory is energy independent on a net basis. In practice the US does actually import a significant percentage of it's refined fuels and crude.

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#3469610 13-Mar-2026 09:09

gzt: China is a big importer of oil product. There is no doubt supply restrictions will impact China, and perhaps more than the US. And, economic disruption among China's offshore trading partners and consumers - more or less everyone worldwide - will inevitably impact China.

For that reason China favors an immediate ceasefire. The aims of the US military action are unclear and have no defined endpoint. Iran for it's part is determined the Straits of Hormuz will remain practically impassable.

US in theory is energy independent on a net basis. In practice the US does actually import a significant percentage of it's refined fuels and crude.

Yes, but a huge chunk is from Canada /Mesico/ and other non gulf sources...

Gulf Sources are around 8% of imports, with the bulk being Saudi.. Saudi can increase their red sea loadings, so potentially make up 1/3 -1/2 of the lost Hormuz shipments, .. While it wont bring the price down, but will likely keep enough flowing to the US to prevent major outages of supply.

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#3469611 13-Mar-2026 09:14

Not just Monique, but even the oil people think we're dumb.

He said the country needed to be insulated against such global energy shocks.

Brent crude oil is currently trading at just under $US100 (NZ$170) a barrel, leading to sharp price rises at the country's pumps.

"If I was running New Zealand we should use this as the impetus to move us to energy self-sufficiency."

Keat said that had two components; 100 percent renewable electricity generation and slowly electrifying the transport fleet.

"Most other countries in the world outside the MAGA US states are doing that now, at pace. For some reason, New Zealand is going down the 1980s' path."

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ezbee

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#3469635 13-Mar-2026 10:39

Fuel storage expansion and running this storage will all have to be added to fuel prices.
Industries and Farmers may prefer fuels at lowest possible cost with higher risk

Our electricity system does have some emergency flexibility at a cost.
Tiwai Operation, that can be scaled down to release more energy in emergencies.
As Tiwai is such a big user the impact can be very large.
If predictions of price apocalypse, and market collapse if Tiwai closed were true.

I seem to remember Tiwai throttling happening in the past in an exceptionally 1/100 dry year?

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#3469643 13-Mar-2026 11:41

ezbee:

I seem to remember Tiwai throttling happening in the past in an exceptionally 1/100 dry year?

Try 2 years ago

"To help balance electricity demand and supply over winter, Meridian called its 50MW demand-response option with the Tiwai Point smelter on 22 June. This required the smelter to reduce its electricity consumption by roughly 9%.

The smelter’s demand reduction was increased to 185MW from 19 August, which is the maximum amount in its contract. However, from 23 August, the smelter agreed to further increase its demand response above the contracted maximum, to 205MW, which was a 36% reduction in total consumption.

From 10 June to 30 September 2024, the smelter’s demand response saved an estimated 330GWh of electricity, which is equivalent to 7% of New Zealand’s total hydro storage capacity.

https://www.ea.govt.nz/news/eye-on-electricity/the-tiwai-point-smelter-demand-response-in-winter-2024/

PolicyGuy

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#3469646 13-Mar-2026 12:01

SaltyNZ:

Not just Monique, but even the oil people think we're dumb.

"Most other countries in the world outside the MAGA US states are doing that now, at pace. For some reason, New Zealand is going down the 1980s' path."

There was a two-hour-long special debate on the Treasury's Long-term Fiscal Position and Investment Statement in the NZ Parliament last evening (12th March). I think this excerpt, as reported by RNZ, explains why we are "going down the 1980s path"

while climate change was raised by Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori, it was not mentioned by any National or ACT MP. New Zealand First dismissed it as an 'imaginary taniwha'.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/589421/mps-debate-the-long-term-but-even-a-week-is-a-long-time-in-politics

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#3469647 13-Mar-2026 12:07

wellygary:

The smelter’s demand reduction was increased to 185MW from 19 August, which is the maximum amount in its contract. However, from 23 August, the smelter agreed to further increase its demand response above the contracted maximum, to 205MW, which was a 36% reduction in total consumption.

Just as well we aren't going to build a new 280MW slop factory in Southland. I mean, at least Tiwai Pt burns power to make something useful.

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#3469648 13-Mar-2026 12:08

I was going to take my fossil cars to the local service station to fill them up just in case, and found that they all have a dead battery and wont start. Shows how long since I have used them.

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