Geekzone Rugby (Union) Discussion Thread

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#3453635 16-Jan-2026 15:16

Earbanean:

This is by far the best analysis of the Razor sacking, and the reasons for it, that I have read so far:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks-under-scott-robertson-inside-the-flaws-that-led-to-his-downfall-opinion/premium/IRUGCGJHU5ELZGYIDMMZWSVLTM/

Sorry, it might be paywalled though.

Non paywalled: archive.ph/IWC33#selection-6023.87-6027.130

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#3453637 16-Jan-2026 15:19

johno1234:

Win ratio is the main metric but not the only one. The team's trend or trajectory is a big one as well and the nature of the wins and losses also counts. The loss to SA in Wellington would rate as one of the most abject disasters I have ever seen from the All Blacks and the trajectory was not positive.

I agree, but also wildly out of character. The team looked absolutely physically spent at the 35 minute mark. Perhaps they over-trained, or something. We are a better team than that.

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#3453639 16-Jan-2026 15:24

networkn:

We are a better team than that.

And that's it in nutshell! We are a better team, or should be. However, over the last 2 years, we had an alarming number of times when we just haven't played like it - and it didn't appear to be getting any better. Hence the change.

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#3454367 19-Jan-2026 16:34

Earbanean:

And that's it in nutshell! We are a better team, or should be. However, over the last 2 years, we had an alarming number of times when we just haven't played like it - and it didn't appear to be getting any better. Hence the change.

I think the Wellington match was literally something unseen before, and other failures under his tenure were certainly nothing in the same league as that. To see the AB's out on their feet at 30 minutes into a match is something I've certainly never seen before in my 25+ Years of watching them.

I have my suspicions they were unwell or something else such was the difference between them that day and any other.

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#3454368 19-Jan-2026 16:43

I am really struggling to believe that we are going to find a suitable replacement, better qualified than Razor, that can turn this team around in enough time for this year to potentially be our worst in history.

JJ is still coaching the Highlanders (badly IMO) this year, and if he left, you'd be throwing them under a bus. Even if he did, trying to get everything in place and a team ready for this years internationals would be quite the feat.

JS is not available till July and RA aren't exactly inclined to do us a favour and let him go early.

I wonder if there could be either something along the lines of Scott Hansen takes over temporarily (I am not super excited about that), or a caretaker such as Ian Foster or Steve Hansen, or perhaps even Wayne Smith.

Probably something like a combination of Scott Hansen and Wayne Smith would be the least disruptive and give us the best chance of getting us started.

It's a hell of a lot to ask of anyone.

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#3454371 19-Jan-2026 16:47

Win Loss Rate for International Coaches during Scott Robertsons tenure. Certainly makes for interesting reading.

For the record, this isn't meant as anything other than a bit of interest, I am not saying Scott Robertson shouldn't have been let go (though to be honest, given the alternatives, it's incredible there wasn't another way to have solved this).

May be an image of text that says 'w 26 22 % 27 18 20 12 18 Rassie Erasmus Scott Robertson Steve Borthwick Mick Byrne Fabien Galthie Gregor Townsend Andy Farrell Felipe Contepomi Gonzalo Quesada Eddie Jones Joe Schmidt 17 12 11 12 8 AAA 6 O L 4 85% 7 74% 6 67% 67% 65% 7 63% 5 5 62% 13 46% 9 44% 12 43% 19 13 24 16 11 7 21 28 9 11 17 39%'

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#3454461 20-Jan-2026 07:50

I've been reading the Gilbert Enoka book, Become Unstoppable, and it gives good insights into the way the ABs developed their culture and systems, especially during the Steve Hansen years. Gilbert left the ABs after the 2023 World Cup. It leaves me wondering whether the recent turmoil could be fallout from that, especially if processes and standards have slipped or changed. Similarly, the loss of several leaders within the team at the same time might now be showing. As per other posts, I can't see a new coach being a quick fix. If they do get Wayne Smith back, I'd expect him to bring Gilbert with him.

Things are LookingUp.... A photo from my back yard :-)

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#3454463 20-Jan-2026 08:41

LookingUp:

I've been reading the Gilbert Enoka book, Become Unstoppable, and it gives good insights into the way the ABs developed their culture and systems, especially during the Steve Hansen years. Gilbert left the ABs after the 2023 World Cup. It leaves me wondering whether the recent turmoil could be fallout from that, especially if processes and standards have slipped or changed. Similarly, the loss of several leaders within the team at the same time might now be showing. As per other posts, I can't see a new coach being a quick fix. If they do get Wayne Smith back, I'd expect him to bring Gilbert with him.

I agree, Robertsons tenure was probably the biggest change in personell in the AB's camp probably since Ted. Pretty much everyone was cleared out with the idea they were going to revisit everything and see if it was the best way forward. Ultimately, it was probably too ambitious, as they lost a LOT of intellectual property. All assumptions were attempted to be removed and were examined and I guess that in the process of that, things weren't too smooth.

The pressure was probably unbearable for him too, I think it would ultimately be a very lonely high pressure job, and the public in NZ are a demanding and unforgiving group. You are expected to be innovative and fresh thinking, but God help you if you lose a match.

If I was to guess, I think the reason for so many Crusaders initially was to try and establish the strong culture clearly felt to be missing, and it's usually easier to do this with people who already trust you.

Adding a mental skills coach,finding concepts the team could rally around, and puttiing the AB's back into the community were probably Teds watershed moments.

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#3454513 20-Jan-2026 09:23

networkn:

Probably something like a combination of Scott Hansen and Wayne Smith would be the least disruptive and give us the best chance of getting us started.

I'd be very surprised if Scott Hansen keeps his job. Jason Ryan, yes quite possibly, but the rest of them not likely IMO. The dream team would be Joseph and Brown, with Smith or Schmidt in some sort of back room role and a few specialists, like Ryan. However, I think it's very, vey unlikely we'll be able to get Brown.

So that leaves a bit of a hole for an innovative backs/attack coach. Carlos Spencer has been mentioned, as has Umaga, but neither of them seem great options to me . Maybe someone like a Clark Laidlaw?

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#3454515 20-Jan-2026 09:36

Earbanean:

I'd be very surprised if Scott Hansen keeps his job. Jason Ryan, yes quite possibly, but the rest of them not likely IMO. The dream team would be Joseph and Brown, with Smith or Schmidt in some sort of back room role and a few specialists, like Ryan. However, I think it's very, vey unlikely we'll be able to get Brown.

So that leaves a bit of a hole for an innovative backs/attack coach. Carlos Spencer has been mentioned, as has Umaga, but neither of them seem great options to me . Maybe someone like a Clark Laidlaw?

Scott Hansen was said to be instrumental in JJ's coaching group during the highs of his tenure with Japan, (and Robertsons tenure at the Crusaders). Once a few of those guys moved on, the team took a pretty sharp dive. Something about Scott Hansen seems 'off' to me, he rubs me the wrong way, but to be honest, lots of good coaches aren't great in front of the press. Steve Borthwick was atrocious until the English Rugby Union got him some training, and even now, he is probably one of the worst orators in world rugby.

You may be right though. There seems to be conflicting reports about who got what criticism.

I am still a little surprised that NZRU decided getting rid of Robertson as opposed to proving him some extra support, was seen as the better option (especially since they didn't have a plug in replacement). I am wondering if Robertson just decided to bail? I guess we will never know, but what we have now, and what we are left with as options, don't at least to me, seem like a better proposition.

There is no out clause in Browns contract, so it would need to be bought out entirely by NZRU, and if JJ can't do his job without Brown, I'd argue he isn't the right choice.

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#3454519 20-Jan-2026 09:43

Earbanean:

I'd be very surprised if Scott Hansen keeps his job. Jason Ryan, yes quite possibly, but the rest of them not likely IMO. The dream team would be Joseph and Brown, with Smith or Schmidt in some sort of back room role and a few specialists, like Ryan. However, I think it's very, vey unlikely we'll be able to get Brown.

So that leaves a bit of a hole for an innovative backs/attack coach. Carlos Spencer has been mentioned, as has Umaga, but neither of them seem great options to me . Maybe someone like a Clark Laidlaw?

I've talked about this before, but it's not just a case of putting the 15 best guys at Rugby on a field and expecting magic. There is often angst around why players continue to be picked when they aren't the fastest, or score the most tries, but as anyone who has managed people knows, you need a balance of types of people in a team for proper success. Not everyone can be a star and can be showy, you need the grinders (Cane for example), and without them, the stars don't shine nearly as brightly.

It will be the same with coaches. I have heard that the issue with Leon MacDonald leaving was less with Robertson, and more with his voice being disregarded by the other coaches.

I once saw a poster on a wall at a highly political charity I did work for a number of years ago, put up after a new CEO got sick of the bitching and infighting.

It said 'A part of your salary is paid for you to treat people you work with, that you don't like, with respect and professionalism'

That place has been so much better than it ever was before.

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#3454520 20-Jan-2026 09:48

networkn:

The pressure was probably unbearable for him too, I think it would ultimately be a very lonely high pressure job, and the public in NZ are a demanding and unforgiving group. You are expected to be innovative and fresh thinking, but God help you if you lose a match.

This just isn't true. It's not 2007 anymore.

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#3454534 20-Jan-2026 10:09

GV27:

This just isn't true. It's not 2007 anymore.

ROFL. Get real. We aren't QUITE as bad, but we are still absolutely terrible. We have no real genuine understanding that our success under Ted and Shag, were a combination of having an untold number of unicorn players (we probably have 2-3 now) along with some excellent coaches, innovative (pods), and had incredible fitness.

Other countries have followed suit, we no longer can rely on blowing teams apart in the last 20 minutes, other teams have excellent coaches (some from NZ), and our win/loss ratio was second in the world behind SA who have an incredible number of players who are the best in the world in their positions.

Just review the awful nonsense that went on in this thread over the time that Foster was coach. It was pretty tame compared to Facebook/Reddit and other social media.

Half the 'fans' in NZ won't support the team or the coach unless we win every match. Robertson was under pressure *6* months in, which is total BS considering where we were in the RWC cycle, and the number of changes made and the drop in the quality of players we have compared to Ted, Shag and even to a lesser degree, Foster.

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#3454548 20-Jan-2026 10:21

networkn:

I've talked about this before, but it's not just a case of putting the 15 best guys at Rugby on a field and expecting magic. There is often angst around why players continue to be picked when they aren't the fastest, or score the most tries, but as anyone who has managed people knows, you need a balance of types of people in a team for proper success. Not everyone can be a star and can be showy, you need the grinders (Cane for example), and without them, the stars don't shine nearly as brightly.

It will be the same with coaches. I have heard that the issue with Leon MacDonald leaving was less with Robertson, and more with his voice being disregarded by the other coaches.

Agreed. The Gilbert Enoka book referenced a famous study, which was really interesting. The learnings were applied to the AB environment during the 2010s. The following is a summary from Google...

The "super flock" experiment refers to a study conducted by evolutionary biologist William Muir at Purdue University in the 1990s, designed to test the effects of selecting for individual productivity versus group cooperation. The experiment, often called the "super-chicken model," found that focusing solely on high-performing individuals led to the collapse of the group.

The Experiment Setup:

The Control Flock: Muir took a group of ordinary, average-laying hens and allowed them to breed and live together naturally.
The "Super Flock": Muir selected the most productive hens—the highest egg producers—and placed them together in a separate group.

Results:

Ordinary Flock: This group thrived, with members healthy and egg production increasing.
Super Flock: The results were disastrous. The high-productivity hens were also hyper-aggressive. To secure their own dominance and resources, they bullied, attacked, and pecked each other, resulting in many of the hens dying.

Lessons Learned:

The experiment is used as a metaphor for management, sociology, and economics to illustrate what happens when incentives focus only on individual performance (a "super-star" approach) rather than the health of the system.

Individual vs. Group: A group of super-performers can be less productive than a group of collaborators.
System Design: The study suggests that "every system is perfectly designed to get the results it gets". If you incentivize aggressive, self-interested behavior, you get a dysfunctional, broken system.
Cooperation over Competition: The healthiest systems reward those who lift others up rather than those who outshine them.

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#3454584 20-Jan-2026 11:46

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/all-blacks-coaching-search-how-nz-rugby-plans-to-fix-a-broken-process-gregor-paul/premium/RSRXTISNSJAMVBYKPQJPW6FUKU/

This is a very interesting article suggesting that this time around, it's somewhat less likely that the head coach will pick their assistants (being seen previously as a way to work with people they know and therefore control).

I am struggling to see how this works as well, a bunch of people in a boardroom picking a coach to work with another coach. Potentially, it could work if the HC picks a few assistants and they are vetted by the board, but much along the lines as previously discussed above, just putting 5 good coaches in a room won't nececssarily get you a good result.

I'd say that it's pretty clear that assistants that Foster 'picked' the first time, were clearly the wrong choice and weren't delivering what Foster asked for. Schmidt has alluded multiple times to having faith in Fosters plan, and a willingness to execute it, and was able to do so better than the predeccesors. Fosters assistants either being unwilling to, or unable to deliver what was asked for from the team, seems a fundamental part of the earlier parts of the failings, but I also think, peoples preconcieved ideas of Foster, led to him being under pressure far quicker than he should have been.

Quite simply, it takes time for a team to come together, and a game plan to both sink in and be able to be executed.

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