2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3310304 18-Nov-2024 17:27

SaltyNZ:

Batman:

maybe Americans are just tired of the Democrat agenda and just want nothing more to do with them, but at a cost to the rest of us

i still blame the Harris/Democrats disaster for this

The "Democrat Agenda" is the same as the "(sane) Republican Agenda". They're both right-wing parties compared to the rest of the world.

Not anymore. The Dems are similar NZ Labour and they have factions such as AOC's "squad" that would be closer to our Greens.

gzt

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#3310322 18-Nov-2024 19:19

Batman:
neb: The Democrats have an agenda? Other than "sort of muddle through" I mean.

here's everything that Bill Maher has said about it (he's anti republican, 100% democrat supporter)

too many to write

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bill-maher-stupid-dems-ditch-143250254.html

https://www.newsweek.com/bill-maher-mocks-liberals-losing-crazy-contest-actual-crazy-person-1986835

https://www.yahoo.com/news/maher-democrats-lost-due-anti-154905004.html

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-maher-privileged-and-stupid-democrats-need-to-stop-digging-hole-over-identity-politics/

Civil rights policy, I don't really agree things like that lost the presidential election. It was a close election. Imo the online talkshow controversy argument type stuff about things like trans rights does not really match the issues that people vote on. For most people I think it's not a deal breaker if there's something to vote for. It's fair to say the Republican Party used things like trans rights as a wedge issue and they were somewhat successful at that. It was a close election and a marginal loss. Exit polls indicate the top issues of concern for Trump voters were the economy and immigration. Imo on the economy voters identified Harris with the Biden administration. Inflation hit during Biden's term. That was always a difficult one to deal with. Imo Harris could have had a better story on inflation. To some extent Harris might have had to 'run against Biden' to win significant numbers of voters on that one. Harris didn't do that in the slightest.

Immigration is partly an 'economy' concern and likewise I think Harris could have done a better job tying those together and advocating for immigration policy where everyone wins. Housing shortage is seen by some voters as exactly the same as immigration. The USA like many major economies has cornered itself into expensive housing and increasing homelessness. Harris has done significant work on housing policy, and the message did not entirely come through. The headline became the $25K home deposit policy. Good policy and maybe a good headline but not convincing for many people who are facing basic affordability and availability issues as renters for the foreseeable future.

A Harvard Business Review article last month covered multiple strategies to resolve housing market availability issues and did not mention deposit assistance other than a marginal effect. The article does cover recent Justice Dept anti-monopoly legal action against a large rental software provider who encourages the huge landlords like the Trumps to increase prices and accept higher vacancies to make higher returns. That was a great anti-elite angle and Harris could have employed that to great effect against the many branches of the Trump enterprises. It was a close election. Harris lost it on the economy inflation and housing.

quickymart

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#3310741 19-Nov-2024 18:39

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/why-deliverism-didnt-deliver-for

Did the Democrats put their eggs in the wrong basket this time around? This commentator sure thinks so.

neb

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#3310744 19-Nov-2024 18:44

One thing I haven't seen mentioned much is that when one side can just invent whatever it wants while the other side is trying to stick to the truth, it's very hard for that side to get anywhere. "Vote for me an you'll all be millionaires, crime will drop to zero, all illegal immigrants will be deported, and I'll create world peace" is pretty hard to beat.

Batman

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#3315223 2-Dec-2024 18:35

Hunter Biden pardoned by Joe Biden

tdgeek

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#3315247 2-Dec-2024 20:02

Batman:

Hunter Biden pardoned by Joe Biden

Not good. At all. I wonder who Trump will pardon, or who pardons Trump lol. Himself most likely, or his close quarters in between court appearances.

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#3315249 2-Dec-2024 20:04

Batman:

Hunter Biden pardoned by Joe Biden

What was your point? Its the 2024 US Presidential election thread that Biden didnt win (obviously he wouldn't but you know what I mean)

johno1234

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#3315298 2-Dec-2024 20:17

Joe is really sticking it to the Dems - this really diminishes their attack on Trump when he starts pardoning all and sundry.

Probably his parting revenge for throwing him out.

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#3322931 21-Dec-2024 07:54

And since the election has been and gone, this seemed the most fitting place to post this:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/20/worst-political-predictions-of-2024-00194856

A couple of the predictions stick out:

The 2024 election will see a “landslide of election rigging claims,” with the Supreme Court hashing things out to allow for a Trump presidency
Predicted by:
Scott Adams

Certain segments of the MAGA internet have a general view that Donald Trump can do no wrong; he can only be wronged. Criminal cases against him? The poisoned fruit of a crooked justice system. Damning revelations from former staffers or advisers? Simple jealousy from cast-offs who either couldn’t cut the mustard or were out to undermine him all along. Elections he loses? Rigged.

On Nov. 2, “Dilbert” creator Scott Adams wrote on X that the U.S. would soon see “a landslide of election rigging claims. More than courts can handle before Jan 6th. … Trump will get the most real votes, but Democrats will empty the trickster vault to keep him from being certified and taking office on schedule.” Ultimately, he envisioned a happy ending for his fellow MAGA believers: “I predict America will sort it all out by the end of January(ish). Probably via Supreme Court.” (He later predicted the election would have “No winner” on account of pervasive election-rigging.)

None of that came to pass, of course. Funny, though: According to the logic of election deniers, Democrats were apparently able to rig the 2020 election, when Trump was in the White House, but unable to do so in 2024 when Biden was president. Almost makes you think the claims of rigging were nonsense all along.

Which it was!!!!

***

The “13 keys” model will correctly predict the election
Predicted by:
Allan Lichtman

Ok, this one is a bit meta — a prediction about a prediction? — but you’ve made it this far, so stay with me:

For more than 40 years, Allan Lichtman has pointed to his “Keys to the White House” model as the definitive forecasting method for U.S. presidential elections. It’s basically this: Given 13 true-or-false statements about the current presidential election (e.g. “the incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal,” “real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms,” etc.), the incumbent party will win if eight or more of these “keys” are true.

And for 40 years, the model has correctly predicted the outcome of the election. At least, that’s Lichtman’s telling; critics of the model correctly note that in both 2000 and 2016, the model was wrong. In 2000, Lichtman’s model suggested Al Gore would take the White House; George W. Bush instead won, and Lichtman blamed the misfire on a split between the Electoral College and popular vote. His model, he said, would correctly forecast only the popular vote. Then came 2016: Lichtman’s model did the opposite, predicting a Trump victory, even as he lost the popular vote while carrying the Electoral College.

Then came 2024. Lichtman’s “keys” predicted Harris would defeat Trump. She didn’t, and there wasn’t a popular vote-Electoral College split to hide behind.

Lichtman came in for a public flaying, and has received so much scorn that I debated including him on this list, because it feels a bit like a canned hunt.

To Lichtman’s credit, unlike many people on this list, he’s owned up to the fact his prediction was off. But the blow — to his reputation, his ego and his career’s most publicly known work — has clearly weighed on him. Shortly after the election, he was photographed on the steps of a building on American University’s campus, taking a giant drag on a cigar.

That, at least, was relatable: After everything that happened in 2024, who couldn’t use a way to unwind?

***

I do feel for Litchman on this one, but I wonder if he's going to make a prediction for 2028, or just not bother now, especially after the blowback he received for being wrong this year?

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#3326653 31-Dec-2024 19:55

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/30/2028-presidential-candidates-analysis-00195391

Awful of me, but I'm already thinking ahead to the next election in 2028, as it will be the first one since 2008 where both primaries were totally open.

Here's a look at the potential Democratic and Republican contenders.

quickymart

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#3330634 12-Jan-2025 15:55

Interesting to see the large number of places that didn't support the orange buffoon (sorry, Donnie, I don't think Canada is a goer, eh), no surprises seeing which ones did (ie, Russia 🙄)

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#3330720 12-Jan-2025 19:48

I hope Trump does what he didnt do before. (I dont actually but bear with me)

Last time, lots of promises, no action. This time lots of promises, but some of them aren't vote catchers, they are post election. So take over Greenland, go after Canada with tariffs , I hope these happen. So that the shallowness and ludicrousness is exposed. Oh yeah, finish Ukraine war in a day. LA fires is the Mayors fault, not due to climate change, which is apparently fake news. Right is fine, left is fine, but not alt-right or alt-left. AFAIK the latter is long gone, the former needs to be long gone also

Wombat1

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#3330799 13-Jan-2025 01:21

quickymart:

Interesting to see the large number of places that didn't support the orange buffoon (sorry, Donnie, I don't think Canada is a goer, eh), no surprises seeing which ones did (ie, Russia 🙄)

And that was determined how?
None of the Australians here I know would support Harris, plenty of jokes were going around about her during and after the elections.

Bung

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#3330804 13-Jan-2025 07:35

Wombat1:
And that was determined how?
None of the Australians here I know would support Harris, plenty of jokes were going around about her during and after the elections.

From Yougov https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/50416-67-of-australians-would-vote-for-kamala-harris-for-president

"Support for Harris is in clear majority amongst people who in 2022 voted Liberal (58%), Labor (79%), Greens (90%) as well Yes (81%) and No (58%) voters in the Voice referendum. 80% of One Nation voters said they would vote for Trump."

In NZ we are lucky that Hansen is just a brand of plumbing fittings.

quickymart

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#3330805 13-Jan-2025 07:45

Wombat1:

And that was determined how?
None of the Australians here I know would support Harris, plenty of jokes were going around about her during and after the elections.

Maybe you only talk to right-wing Trump supporters?

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