So it begins...

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#1959540 17-Feb-2018 11:36

tdgeek:
Interesting opinion piece by Duncan Garner

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/101512975/duncan-garner-want-the-nuclear-option-pick-crusher

There is a lot to like about a tough hardnosed leader. Loud, get the job done, doesn't matter if I'm not Ms Popular, the job got done. Factor in rattling JA. If she is louder and bangs away at Labour in Parliament, even if its rubbish, you are more visible if your in the news every day, for whatever reason.

There is a downside though. I doubt that JA would get rattled. She would probably smile and cast it off with a dig, a well worded, polite dig. High road and all that. If that was the case it would show a larger point of difference to Labour, and in a negative way.

The word i the media is that Adams won't feature. Apparenbtly Bridges isn't that well liked, I;m surprised by that, if in fact its correct. I still favour Bridges as he is younger, well educated, experienced, and not brash and loud. I am assuming an articulate leader would give a good impression to the swing voters, and at the end of the day its not about Labour Voters or National voters, they all vote the same way every election, its about the swing voters.

I love his opening sentence. Rotfl.

The media have painted her as a very hard woman, and on the surface she probably is, quite the opposite to JA. And of course if you're the police minister that's what people expect of you, and that's what you need to be. I think if she was put into place as a leader we would see a different side to her. Still a tough character, but more balanced.

It's a risk as Duncan points out, but in three years time the international and local political arena might be a very different setting, and she might be a good fit, or maybe not, who knows...

National have needed a reason to be in the news, and this will be essentially the end of their media honeymoon. A new leader will steal the show for a while, giving more covergae to National right when the new leader will probably be launching a fresh attack on the government, so while the new leader might not measure up to English, it will give the party a boost, if they play it right.

rjt123

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#1959544 17-Feb-2018 11:44

tdgeek:
There is a downside though. I doubt that JA would get rattled. She would probably smile and cast it off with a dig, a well worded, polite dig. High road and all that. If that was the case it would show a larger point of difference to Labour, and in a negative way.

If the opposition play it right they will be able to get at JA. She won't appear rattled... Or not much anyway. But if u remember English in the debates, a well placed shot at their weak points can be effective. She handles them well, but her response sounds empty. Like when English started listing off a list of possible taxes in one of the debates. She was obviously annoyed by that. And now she is PM she will have a lot more to be accountable for.

Geektastic

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#1959552 17-Feb-2018 11:55

gzt: What are the benefits of your press card in NZ?

It adds weight when you need it in terms of bona fides. I've been asked to cover official visits and things at Parliament for Agencies before and when applying for access to those kind of things being able to add a copy of the card to the application helps. It's also helped with applications to cover events overseas etc.

tdgeek

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#1959688 17-Feb-2018 19:41

rjt123:
tdgeek:
Interesting opinion piece by Duncan Garner

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/101512975/duncan-garner-want-the-nuclear-option-pick-crusher

There is a lot to like about a tough hardnosed leader. Loud, get the job done, doesn't matter if I'm not Ms Popular, the job got done. Factor in rattling JA. If she is louder and bangs away at Labour in Parliament, even if its rubbish, you are more visible if your in the news every day, for whatever reason.

There is a downside though. I doubt that JA would get rattled. She would probably smile and cast it off with a dig, a well worded, polite dig. High road and all that. If that was the case it would show a larger point of difference to Labour, and in a negative way.

The word i the media is that Adams won't feature. Apparenbtly Bridges isn't that well liked, I;m surprised by that, if in fact its correct. I still favour Bridges as he is younger, well educated, experienced, and not brash and loud. I am assuming an articulate leader would give a good impression to the swing voters, and at the end of the day its not about Labour Voters or National voters, they all vote the same way every election, its about the swing voters.

I love his opening sentence. Rotfl.

The media have painted her as a very hard woman, and on the surface she probably is, quite the opposite to JA. And of course if you're the police minister that's what people expect of you, and that's what you need to be. I think if she was put into place as a leader we would see a different side to her. Still a tough character, but more balanced.

It's a risk as Duncan points out, but in three years time the international and local political arena might be a very different setting, and she might be a good fit, or maybe not, who knows...

National have needed a reason to be in the news, and this will be essentially the end of their media honeymoon. A new leader will steal the show for a while, giving more covergae to National right when the new leader will probably be launching a fresh attack on the government, so while the new leader might not measure up to English, it will give the party a boost, if they play it right.

Fully agree

tdgeek

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#1959694 17-Feb-2018 19:46

rjt123:
tdgeek:
There is a downside though. I doubt that JA would get rattled. She would probably smile and cast it off with a dig, a well worded, polite dig. High road and all that. If that was the case it would show a larger point of difference to Labour, and in a negative way.

If the opposition play it right they will be able to get at JA. She won't appear rattled... Or not much anyway. But if u remember English in the debates, a well placed shot at their weak points can be effective. She handles them well, but her response sounds empty. Like when English started listing off a list of possible taxes in one of the debates. She was obviously annoyed by that. And now she is PM she will have a lot more to be accountable for.

Very true. When Billl was targeted he smiled,said nothing very JK like. But the learning curve then is different now. JC can help the woes but she needs to be careful as she can end up losing that battle not on aggression but on outcome

allio

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#1960456 19-Feb-2018 17:02

6FIEND:

For the record, there was an investigation. Collins was cleared of any wrongdoing whatsoever.

She was completely exonerated. So yeah - a great stick to beat her with.

Edit: - Oops, the link is the exoneration of the other allegation that Collins was subject to. Here is a better link.

Prime Minister John Key [has received] advice from the Cabinet Office that he says clears the Justice Minister of breaching Cabinet rules.

Sorry, this is a few pages back, but I just had to note this. This post is amazing - it's the culmination of what was perhaps Key's shrewdest ever political move.

In 2014, Collins was embroiled in two separate scandals (in March, it came out that she'd been involved in dodgy Oravida dealings and then lied to Key about it, and in August Dirty Politics revealed that she'd inappropriately passed the identity of a public servant to Cameron Slater, resulting in him being the target of abuse and death threats from Whale Oil readers). Key acknowledged that both allegations were serious and substantial - he placed her on "final warning" after each.

And then his master stroke - out of the blue, he suspended Collins for something completely different (an accusation that she was "gunning for [SFO head] Adam Feeley"), based on a mysterious and spurious email provided by a Whaleoil crony, and announced a full investigation. Of course, the investigation was solely into the Adam Feeley story, not into either of the more substantial previous scandals, but the public conflated all of them. When the investigation inevitably reported that there was nothing to the Feeley story, everybody concluded that Collins was completely exonerated of all charges. Well, not everybody, but a lot of people in this thread.

rjt123

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#1960496 19-Feb-2018 17:41

Oravida was nothing. Period

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networkn

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#1960499 19-Feb-2018 17:50

Mark Mitchell has his hat in the ring. I like him, I feel he could easily take on JA. He was a hostage negotiator, and Police officer for the AOS and dog squad and seems likable enough. He has a family too, so will be relateable there.

He's the strongest contender I think. I'd vote for him. Not sure if he will win. He is still a white older male (because for some stupid reason people care about that), but younger than English.

rjt123

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#1960523 19-Feb-2018 19:09

I don't think age or gender will factor in the caucus vote very strongly. While it is a contrast at the moment between English and Adern, she will be 40 by the next election, which is hardly young. So she can hardly claim to represent the young generation.

Interesting choices, I'm struggling to decide what is best.

networkn

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#1960528 19-Feb-2018 19:16

rjt123: I don't think age or gender will factor in the caucus vote very strongly. While it is a contrast at the moment between English and Adern, she will be 40 by the next election, which is hardly young. So she can hardly claim to represent the young generation.

Interesting choices, I'm struggling to decide what is best.

I don't think it will affect caucus vote much either, however, unfortunately, worldwide, voters are putting in a put of a revolt against the white male right now. More and more elections are popularity contests, which I do acknowledge did produce positive results for National.

The revolt against the establishment is starting to falter already. I know some exceptionally remorseful Trump voters (Though also some just as adamant it was a good choice still) and non-traditional voting has not exactly set the world on fire positive results wise.

Hopefully by 2020 people will have it out of their systems, though I think it will take a proper meltdown before people realize that there was a good reason experience and qualifications are important in your leaders.

Rikkitic

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#1960535 19-Feb-2018 19:24

Experience and qualifications, yes, but I don't think the revolt against older white males is just frizzy doo-dah. Older white males have had it their way for years, for centuries, for ever since Hera got pushed aside for Zeus. They have had their run. They haven't exactly fixed the world's problems. Maybe people just want to try something else to see if it might be better.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

rjt123

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#1960538 19-Feb-2018 19:26

networkn:
rjt123: I don't think age or gender will factor in the caucus vote very strongly. While it is a contrast at the moment between English and Adern, she will be 40 by the next election, which is hardly young. So she can hardly claim to represent the young generation.

Interesting choices, I'm struggling to decide what is best.

I don't think it will affect caucus vote much either, however, unfortunately, worldwide, voters are putting in a put of a revolt against the white male right now. More and more elections are popularity contests, which I do acknowledge did produce positive results for National.

The revolt against the establishment is starting to falter already. I know some exceptionally remorseful Trump voters (Though also some just as adamant it was a good choice still) and non-traditional voting has not exactly set the world on fire positive results wise.

Hopefully by 2020 people will have it out of their systems, though I think it will take a proper meltdown before people realize that there was a good reason experience and qualifications are important in your leaders.

The presidential election will be the same year, so it will certainly be well debated, the virtues of the radical non-traditional vote, or the traditional established norms.

USA went from their youngest ever president (Obama) to Trump. Age might not mean much by then.

networkn

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#1960540 19-Feb-2018 19:28

Rikkitic:

Experience and qualifications, yes, but I don't think the revolt against older white males is just frizzy doo-dah. Older white males have had it their way for years, for centuries, for ever since Hera got pushed aside for Zeus. They have had their run. They haven't exactly fixed the world's problems. Maybe people just want to try something else to see if it might be better.

Doesn't seem like they are fixing it either!

It's easy to point out the faults of a group of people, without taking into account all the good they have done too.

The normal way to test something, is to make small manageable changes, not throw your toys out of the cot and dump the worlds problems into the laps of non conventional "problem solvers" in the hope of magic. What usually occurs after that is fireworks.

Just because you might be old white and rich, doesn't automatically make you greedy and evil.

rjt123

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#1960541 19-Feb-2018 19:28

Rikkitic:
Experience and qualifications, yes, but I don't think the revolt against older white males is just frizzy doo-dah. Older white males have had it their way for years, for centuries, for ever since Hera got pushed aside for Zeus. They have had their run. They haven't exactly fixed the world's problems. Maybe people just want to try something else to see if it might be better.

Our old white female wasn't exactly the answer for NZ. So maybe it's the age not the gender.

tdgeek

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#1960552 19-Feb-2018 19:52

So, what is the establishment? Old rich white males? Old white males? A leader who has been in power for a while? Serious question.

As to Trump, that is very irrelevant, which is obvious.

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