NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3131593 25-Sep-2023 08:29

freitasm: Some people see homeless people, think it's their own fault and because of that they don't need/deserve help to get off the ground.

Oh, yeah. Some call it "bootstrap"

Why you can't "bootstrap" yourself out of poverty (yahoo.com)

Even when there is plenty of evidence that giving a cash injection to homeless and those at the bottom the vast majority of them use it to pay rent and get themselves out of poverty.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2222103120

In a cluster-randomized controlled trial, we address a core cause of homelessness—lack of money—by providing a one-time unconditional cash transfer of CAD$7,500 to each of 50 individuals experiencing homelessness, with another 65 as controls in Vancouver, BC. Exploratory analyses showed that over 1 y, cash recipients spent fewer days homeless, increased savings and spending with no increase in temptation goods spending, and generated societal net savings of $777 per recipient via reduced time in shelters.

But reality doesn't align to @Technofreak 's Supply Side economic outlook so undoubtedly he would never read actual reasearch into homelessness or the impacts of poverty has across the whole of socieity.

If National were serious about wanting to be tough on crime, they would throw as much money at resolving the underly drivers of crime (hint... by far and above the most significant driver for all crime is poverty granted, violent crime doesn't always have such a direct link, but lower level crime absolutely) and by solving that only the worst of the worst are in prison costing the taxpayers $200k per annum. Whereas the tools for resolving poverty are in central governments hands. Want to get tough on gangs, remove the conditions where joining a gang is seen as a viable rather than trying to put them all in prison.

Technofreak

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#3131629 25-Sep-2023 11:04

BarTender:

But reality doesn't align to @Technofreak 's Supply Side economic outlook so undoubtedly he would never read actual reasearch into homelessness or the impacts of poverty has across the whole of socieity.

If National were serious about wanting to be tough on crime, they would throw as much money at resolving the underly drivers of crime (hint... by far and above the most significant driver for all crime is poverty granted, violent crime doesn't always have such a direct link, but lower level crime absolutely) and by solving that only the worst of the worst are in prison costing the taxpayers $200k per annum. Whereas the tools for resolving poverty are in central governments hands. Want to get tough on gangs, remove the conditions where joining a gang is seen as a viable rather than trying to put them all in prison.

You come across as an arrogant ****. Thank you for telling me what I would never read. If you actiually read what I have said in the recent posts on this thread you might find I'm more aligned to your way of thinking than you appear to think. I'll leave that up to you to decide.

Homelessness and poverty have a huge impact on us all and it is up to us all to rectify the problem. It's how we rectify it is where the issues lie.

Whether you like it or not we live in a supply and demand economy. Generally it works well but needs government checks and balances (laws, Commerce Commission etc) to regulate areas that are not serving the population well.

Sure, supply and demand isn't perfect, especially in an isolated country with a small population, where our market is skewed by one or two major players (think supermarkets and building supplies) in important areas due to there not being sufficent demand for other major players to enter a remote market.

I don't think governments of either hue have been particularly good at their job of monitoring and regulating.

I have already said I have no problem using taxes to reduce poverty.

I have a huge problem with just increasing taxes to fix problems without first ensuring the taxes you are already collecting are being wisely spent. When I see money being spent with gay abandon on consultants, spin doctors and expensive failed government department reorganisations, pet ideas like the failed traffic calming projects I think there there might already be enough money in the pot to spend on homelessness and poverty.

News Flash

What you sugggest as the solution was what Bill English was proposing.

Instead we got a "transformational, transparent" government which has been anything but. The current government has had six years to implement ideas like Bill English was proposing. In the meantime crime has skyrocketed and by association, using your logic (which I don't disagree with), so has poverty skyrocketed.

I don't think those ideas from the National party have died, but right at the moment getting tough on crime resonates much better with the general population.

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freitasm

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#3131630 25-Sep-2023 11:11

Technofreak:

I don't think those ideas from the National party have died, but right at the moment getting tough on crime resonates much better with the general population.

This is the point. National is always talking about being tough on crime. Not on helping reduce it. Getting money just to keep prisons running is a waste.

But, yes, it "resonates".

Which is always a shame.

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#3131639 25-Sep-2023 12:16

Germany does have high marginal taxes up to 45%, plus 19% VAT, plus capital gains tax of 25%.
They seem to have inheritance taxes of 7 % to 50 %.
There are tax free allowances of 2K Eu to 500K EU depending on status, like immediate children have tax free up to 500K EU.
Income on rentals etc is charged at income tax rate.

I suppose there are a few other nuances, but Germany seems to have plently of taxes, especially for high income and asset rich.

It also has an economy large enough as 4th in the world that can attract and support many competitors where we get...
DUOPOLIES!, Supermarkets, Air Travel, Building Supplies, One Red Shed, etc.
If we are lucky.

Adam Smiths invisible hand only works the way he thought it did in markets with 'many' competitors, otherwise it goes the opposite way.

Though it seems that their regional and central Government still play a big role in providing Healthcare subsidies and infrastructure, anyway.

BarTender

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#3131640 25-Sep-2023 12:17

Technofreak: I have a huge problem with just increasing taxes to fix problems without first ensuring the taxes you are already collecting are being wisely spent. When I see money being spent with gay abandon on consultants, spin doctors and expensive failed government department reorganisations, pet ideas like the failed traffic calming projects I think there there might already be enough money in the pot to spend on homelessness and poverty.

Working directly with MSD for the last 3 years has been incredibly informative for my view about the efficiencies or lack thereof of government agencies: They are inefficient at delivering services.

Working directly in private enterprises in NZ and internationally for over 20 years in the majority of my career: They are just as inefficient at delivering services.

What happened when National just got into term they drastically cut the budgets to all agencies under the guise of the GFC especially their pet agencies they dislike that provide social services (MSD, Housing which is now KO, DOC) so they left the mess of reducing headcount to senior management to filter down across the org.

When that happened the good people leave, the rubbish people stay and expensive contractors are brought in to pick up the slack.

Working with Health either at the DHB level or central is exactly the same. The under-spend on staff and technology across the whole sector has been decades in the making.

Then we have the electricity market where the previous National government sold off 49% of productive assets that were delivering a consistent return to fund tax cuts in the form of the GST and Income tax swap which has left us $1B per annum worse off.

Technofreak: What you suggest as the solution was what Bill English was proposing.

Instead we got a "transformational, transparent" government which has been anything but. The current government has had six years to implement ideas like Bill English was proposing. In the meantime crime has skyrocketed and by association, using your logic (which I don't disagree with), so has poverty skyrocketed.

I don't think those ideas from the National party have died, but right at the moment getting tough on crime resonates much better with the general population.

The weird thing about crime "skyrocketing" is that the reporting has significantly changed. Instead of trying to pretend there is no housing crisis or that kids were living in cars this government has set to report crime accurately and the Justice ministry reporting on crime.

I think reporting accurately on crime and poverty is a good thing, it means the numbers go up but it doesn't mean we are sweeping the current state of our nation under the carpet.

The way that the current National leadership are being about releasing the underlying methodology and detail about selling $20B in housing to wealthy foreign buyers and how the numbers simply don't stack up should tell you everything about how transparent they will be when they undoubtedly get into government. They will blame Labour for the first term, but when no meaningful changes occur in Education, Health, Social services or Crime apart from the prison population going up and worse outcomes for victims they will paper over the numbers as they did last time.

GV27

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#3131642 25-Sep-2023 12:27

BarTender:

The way that the current National leadership are being about releasing the underlying methodology and detail about selling $20B in housing to wealthy foreign buyers and how the numbers simply don't stack up should tell you everything about how transparent they will be when they undoubtedly get into government.

Lucky for them that bar is extremely low at the moment.

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#3131645 25-Sep-2023 12:40

GV27:

Lucky for them that bar is extremely low at the moment.

This kind of comment illustrates perfectly why nothing is ever likely to improve here!

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#3131654 25-Sep-2023 12:57

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/gone-are-the-days-of-political-leaders-being-mobbed-at-malls-hold depressing that this is where things are at now. Too many morons running loose out there.

I dunno what Tamaki's end game is by disrupting campaign events, but I sure as hell don't see it as getting people to vote for him. My local Vision candidate sees him interrupting events as (somehow) a good thing, he says doing so is "adding a little spice" to the election. Personally, I think it makes him look like a complete knob, but what do I know.

tdgeek

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#3131662 25-Sep-2023 14:01

Rikkitic:

GV27:

Lucky for them that bar is extremely low at the moment.

This kind of comment illustrates perfectly why nothing is ever likely to improve here!

I imagine every election that will change Govt is because the incumbent has set a low bar. So a new Govt is formed, who in time will set a low bar, rinse and repeat

Yes, nothing changes

quickymart

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#3131678 25-Sep-2023 15:37

https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/25-09-2023/luxon-left-looking-slow-and-expedient-after-peters-rule-in-announcement

I think Luxon may not understand what he's getting himself in for if he ends up going with Peters - but hopefully he won't need to do so if he's in the position of forming the next government.

Handle9

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#3131685 25-Sep-2023 16:21

Rikkitic:

GV27:

Lucky for them that bar is extremely low at the moment.

This kind of comment illustrates perfectly why nothing is ever likely to improve here!

It'll get better, it'll get worse.

All this stuff is cyclical and a fair chunk of who gets the credit and the blame is luck.

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Handle9

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#3131687 25-Sep-2023 16:26

ezbee:

Germany does have high marginal taxes up to 45%, plus 19% VAT, plus capital gains tax of 25%.
They seem to have inheritance taxes of 7 % to 50 %.
There are tax free allowances of 2K Eu to 500K EU depending on status, like immediate children have tax free up to 500K EU.
Income on rentals etc is charged at income tax rate.

I suppose there are a few other nuances, but Germany seems to have plently of taxes, especially for high income and asset rich.

It also has an economy large enough as 4th in the world that can attract and support many competitors where we get...
DUOPOLIES!, Supermarkets, Air Travel, Building Supplies, One Red Shed, etc.
If we are lucky.

Adam Smiths invisible hand only works the way he thought it did in markets with 'many' competitors, otherwise it goes the opposite way.

Though it seems that their regional and central Government still play a big role in providing Healthcare subsidies and infrastructure, anyway.

Comparing Germany to NZ is pretty difficult. It's an essentially socialist system with a capitalist economy.

Tax levels are high, service levels are high but there's a fair amount of discontent with the way the country is going there as well. The AfD (far right) has become the second highest polling party in the last 12 months.

evilengineer

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#3131698 25-Sep-2023 17:02

According to the OECD New Zealand is ranked at 21st out of 38 for tax as %GDP at 33.8%.

Compared to a median value of 34.8%.

So that's decidedly middle of the road, even with a Labour government.

For comparison, UK is at 33.5% with a Conservative government.

Denmark takes the coveted(?!?) top spot at 46.9%, USA is at 26.6% and Australia is 28.5%.

Germany only just cracks the top 10 at 39.5%

So higher than Australia but nowhere near a squeeze 'em till the pips squeak socialist utopia either.

evilengineer

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#3131701 25-Sep-2023 17:05

quickymart:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/25-09-2023/luxon-left-looking-slow-and-expedient-after-peters-rule-in-announcement

I think Luxon may not understand what he's getting himself in for if he ends up going with Peters - but hopefully he won't need to do so if he's in the position of forming the next government.

Perhaps all the perspective first time home buyers should vote for Winston to keep the foreign homebuyers out the market and avoid stoking the housing bubble afresh. 😀

BarTender

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#3131702 25-Sep-2023 17:11

GV27:

BarTender: The way that the current National leadership are being about releasing the underlying methodology and detail about selling $20B in housing to wealthy foreign buyers and how the numbers simply don't stack up should tell you everything about how transparent they will be when they undoubtedly get into government.

Lucky for them that bar is extremely low at the moment.

Well it shouldn't be.

Everyone knows the international property sales numbers National have put forward are 🐎💩 and Nicola Willis keeps on doubling down and avoiding answering the question as she knows if she keeps on talking and avoiding answering the question the average voter will just accept the lie and move on.

A friend of mine posted this to me:

https://nickrockel.substack.com/p/letter-to-luxon

It's just so true, the constant negative narrative the National front bench has been parroting out is just nonsense, it's good for soundbites and appealing because it's simple. But a pack of lies nonetheless.

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