NZ 2023 Election Thread

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1547 posts

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#3135520 27-Sep-2023 15:25

Only just realised this and I believe it may be a first but the latest Reid Research poll out yesterday had Luxon in front in the preferred PM. Thats the first I have ever read of that happening..

"The poll results show National's Christopher Luxon is on 24 percent, up 1.5, while Labour's Chris Hipkins has tumbled down 3.4 points to 19.1 percent. Luxon now has five points on Hipkins."

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tdgeek

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#3135534 27-Sep-2023 15:36

GV27:

The exploding tax take and unwinding public service in spite of it is a 2017 - 2023 issue.

No matter whether you like it or not, that's what they are answerable for. They were the government.

If you want to extend your argument to its most absurd logical conclusion, I could say Vogel almost ruined this country with his nation-building program that we couldn't afford and everything since then has been papering over the cracks, so let's not hold anyone north of the 1880s responsible for anything either.

So the exploding tax take, they increased taxes? Your making it out like they have been increasing existing taxes. What you possibly mean is that higher wages, sales have garnered a higher take of Income Tax, Company tax and GST? Or do you mean that as they did not index thresholds they took all that tax from us?

Unwinding public service, they have reduced staff?

If anything and everything is due to Labour, then Oct 14 vote them out. We all know that will happen, but we are still banging on about it. They are gone, simple as that. But we wont talk about all the good things that National will replace them with? But yeah, all good, either party is not going to affect our lifestyle so it doesn't matter, but it actually does matter to me, for others. I really cannot see National helping at all, but thats just my opinion

tdgeek

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#3135535 27-Sep-2023 15:38

JPNZ:

Only just realised this and I believe it may be a first but the latest Reid Research poll out yesterday had Luxon in front in the preferred PM. Thats the first I have ever read of that happening..

"The poll results show National's Christopher Luxon is on 24 percent, up 1.5, while Labour's Chris Hipkins has tumbled down 3.4 points to 19.1 percent. Luxon now has five points on Hipkins."

Yeah that's been a trend. Luxon is out there shouting how shocking Labour are, and Hipkins has been weak, pure and simple. Perhapos too weak to respond in kind, who knows.

sen8or

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#3135536 27-Sep-2023 15:48

tdgeek:

Yeah that's been a trend. Luxon is out there shouting how shocking Labour are, and Hipkins has been weak, pure and simple. Perhapos too weak to respond in kind, who knows.

Its more likely he knows he doesn't (cant) come from a position of strength

tdgeek

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#3135538 27-Sep-2023 15:54

sen8or:

Its more likely he knows he doesn't (cant) come from a position of strength

Agree. So he just folds. When GR talks about IMF stats as he did today its quite a good listen, post Covid. But as they wont give large tax cuts, hands are bound

wellygary

8316 posts

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#3135539 27-Sep-2023 15:56

What is interesting over the last week has been the narrative change in reporting,

Its gone from it is a tight election with "The left and right blocks very close" and occasionally NZ first popping as "King maker"

To "It is highly likely to be a change in Government, but it is not clear whether the right will need 2 or 3 parties to have a majority"

If tonight's 1News poll has labour at 27 or lower then it is pretty much all over for them .. ( and Chris Hopkins should start preparing his Labour leadership resignation speech for election night)

Advanced voting starts next week and I think there will be a huge rush in people just wanting to vote and be done with it ....

quickymart

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#3135540 27-Sep-2023 15:57

GV27:

quickymart:

A query I have re the minor parties. Since Liz Gunn's Loyal (lol) "party" (lol) only actually registered 2 candidates, if by some miracle she manages to make 5% and gets into Parliament, how many seats would she get, and - assuming it's more than 2 - what would happen to the other seats? Would they sit vacant or something?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/133005597/liz-gunns-nz-loyal-to-contest-election-with-two-on-its-party-list

Stuff has tried to contact the party for comment through its website, but was instead added to a NZ Loyal supporters mailing list.

Jeez, they must be pretty desperate for followers!

Arguably any seats they actually did fill would be vacant to some extent, but I'm thinking more intellectually than overhang related.

So it would be an underhang situation? Is that right? That would be a fair few seats lost as a result.

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tdgeek

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#3135541 27-Sep-2023 16:01

wellygary:

What is interesting over the last week has been the narrative change in reporting,

Its gone from it is a tight election with "The left and right blocks very close" and occasionally NZ first popping as "King maker"

To "It is highly likely to be a change in Government, but it is not clear whether the right will need 2 or 3 parties to have a majority"

If tonight's 1News poll has labour at 27 or lower then it is pretty much all over for them .. ( and Chris Hopkins should start preparing his Labour leadership resignation speech for election night)

Advanced voting starts next week and I think there will be a huge rush in people just wanting to vote and be done with it ....

Ive always seen it as a clear loss, never as close. If National needs NZF well I guess that is close if they can only reach 60 seats now as per the last poll.

wellygary

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#3135552 27-Sep-2023 16:36

quickymart:

GV27:

Arguably any seats they actually did fill would be vacant to some extent, but I'm thinking more intellectually than overhang related.

So it would be an underhang situation? Is that right? That would be a fair few seats lost as a result.

Yip,

From the Electoral Commission: - In short, parliament would be 117 ( or whatever) MPs, -

"If a party has not nominated enough list candidates to fill all the seats to which it is entitled on the basis of its share of the party vote, the seats remain unfilled and the size of Parliament is reduced by that number of seats until the next general election. The number of seats won by other parties is not affected."

https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/statistics/sainte-lague-formula.html

mudguard

2117 posts

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#3135553 27-Sep-2023 16:38

quickymart:

A query I have re the minor parties. Since Liz Gunn's Loyal (lol) "party" (lol) only actually registered 2 candidates, if by some miracle she manages to make 5% and gets into Parliament, how many seats would she get, and - assuming it's more than 2 - what would happen to the other seats? Would they sit vacant or something?

I do try look at all candidate websites, and especially as there seem to be plenty of NZ Loyal signs near where I live, I had a look. Man oh man. I think this line stood out.

Apologies in advance as it's distressing, and mods feel free to remove. But I can't believe they're putting stuff like this on their website.

NB I have always been a centre voter, so please don't see this as some kind of endorsement.

Yesterday I was sent something from America, an account of a full term abortion. It was nothing short of horrific. The baby was crowning and the doctor put an injection into the back of that baby's neck. and further there was a claim that the baby's organs would be taken and used.

https://nzloyal.org.nz/pages/policy-position-on-abortion

sen8or

1789 posts

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#3135558 27-Sep-2023 16:46

tdgeek:

sen8or:

Its more likely he knows he doesn't (cant) come from a position of strength

Agree. So he just folds. When GR talks about IMF stats as he did today its quite a good listen, post Covid. But as they wont give large tax cuts, hands are bound

I don't think its about not giving tax cuts, its that the solution of "we'll just throw money at it" hasn't worked, it never has.

They don't have a platform of achievement on which to stand. Even if they tried the "we managed COVID well", quite simply, they didn't. Vaccine acquisition and rollout was shambolic, lockdowns whilst initially a good idea, they went to that well too many times and kept too many people locked away for too long. They divided the country through mandates like no other party has in this country before and they have also used billions of those borrowed funds for other pet projects.

Covid almost certainly gave them the 2020 result that they so gleefully cheer about, seems apt that the after effects of COVID are also responsible for giving them a likely result they'll soon want to forget...

tdgeek

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#3135563 27-Sep-2023 17:02

sen8or:

I don't think its about not giving tax cuts, its that the solution of "we'll just throw money at it" hasn't worked, it never has.

They don't have a platform of achievement on which to stand. Even if they tried the "we managed COVID well", quite simply, they didn't. Vaccine acquisition and rollout was shambolic, lockdowns whilst initially a good idea, they went to that well too many times and kept too many people locked away for too long. They divided the country through mandates like no other party has in this country before and they have also used billions of those borrowed funds for other pet projects.

Covid almost certainly gave them the 2020 result that they so gleefully cheer about, seems apt that the after effects of COVID are also responsible for giving them a likely result they'll soon want to forget...

I hear that but I dont quite see it that way. Here,(these threads) Covid and Ukraine have very little to do with our situation. But our sitaution is mirrored elsewhere globally. On todays Labour fiscal standup, GR mentioned a number of positives including IMF stats. Here (these threads), the stats quoted have us often about last globally on most things. My stance is they did most of what other countries did, got the same results/outcomes, and according to GR today, IMF has us looking pretty good globally. Thats about how I feel. Labour has done quite a bit, but here, all of that is rubbish lol. So people are sick of inflation and interest rates, I get that, but there was no magic wand. National will throw money at it, re tax cuts and cut services to fund it, and still fall short, thats my feeling. Labour should be awash with tax cuts we cannot afford but they are going conservative, a little ironic.

Anyways, Oct 15 we will still, as always, not have funding to deal with health and education and infrastructure etc. Nothing will change

Handle9

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#3135566 27-Sep-2023 17:11

ockel:

Handle9:

https://www.iaee.org/en/publications/newsletterdl.aspx?id=949

Putting your quote in context. Nominal electricity prices have increased by 40% since 2007 but minimum wage rates have increased by 101% and Median HH income by 81% over the same period. So the proportion of HH income spent on residential electricity has fallen since 2007 - I'm sure the data is available to go back further but your premise that increasing prices are an indication of market failure doesnt hold water. Price has created signals that result in more efficient use of the commodity (much like user pays for water) and acted as the incentive to invest in marginal generation when its required based on perceived future demand. The alternative is a command structure with inefficient usage (waste rather than rational behaviour) and overbuild of capacity "just in case" a la Onslow.

What exactly is your argument based upon when you say "The electricity market as a whole hasn't acheived at all what it was sold to the public. In particular residential power prices have increased by 50% in normalised dollar terms since 2001 while introducing gamification and price fixing into the market."

Were you using 2018 dollars for your median HH income?

This is what was promised:

The Coalition Government is on track to deliver lower electricity prices to all consumers, Energy Minister Max Bradford said today.

It hasn't done that and never did.

Regardless the conclusion is the same. The electricity market reforms were sold on the premise of reducing electricity prices to consumers due increased efficiencies "competition." ECNZ was very good at generating reliable, largely renewable and reasonably priced power.

What we've ended up with a market where the assets have been sweated, we have winter blackouts and no resiliency in the system. We've got generators being convicted of gaming the system, refusing to invest in generation as there is no business case and they'll inevitably come back to the government for a handout when they have problems.

Treating publicly necessary resources as piure commodities haven't resulted in lower prices or increased resiliency. It's resulted in transfer of wealth from the public to shareholders, not the other way round.

gzt

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#3135602 27-Sep-2023 18:45

tdgeek: Yeah that's been a trend. Luxon is out there shouting how shocking Labour are, and Hipkins has been weak, pure and simple. Perhapos too weak to respond in kind, who knows.

I think we're consuming different media. I've seen and heard Hipkins respond well in kind on TV and radio in the last day or so.

tdgeek

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#3135618 27-Sep-2023 19:48

gzt:
tdgeek: Yeah that's been a trend. Luxon is out there shouting how shocking Labour are, and Hipkins has been weak, pure and simple. Perhapos too weak to respond in kind, who knows.

I think we're consuming different media. I've seen and heard Hipkins respond well in kind on TV and radio in the last day or so.

I have too and I am right now. He is ramping up a bit, but IMO a bit weak. Luxon has no clue, doesnt answer questions, focuses on repeating wordy slogans, but he is controlling the narrative.

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