What will Winston do???

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#1873450 27-Sep-2017 09:15

Geektastic:

Here's an interesting article comparing the German election with ours. Both run on the same MMP model but with different outcomes.

One of the suggestions - a Labour/National coalition telling Winston to poke it - would be an interesting development in NZ.

It seems irelevant to NZ. Their smaller main party is not in a position to form a coalition, so its a matter of low pressure cooperation than hardcore doing a deal

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#1873452 27-Sep-2017 09:18

Geektastic:

One of the suggestions - a Labour/National coalition telling Winston to poke it - would be an interesting development in NZ.

That would be very interesting, and I kinda like the idea. In fact it sits far better with me that National/Greens.

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#1873457 27-Sep-2017 09:24

Here is another interesting scenario, lets say we end up with a Greens/Labour/NZ First government. National is short only one seat to form government.

A few months go by, everything sorta OK. then a labour MP dies somewhere. What are the rules around a by-election, and what happens if a National MP takes the Labour MP place? Would this mean that now National has enough seats for government, and government can be changed again?

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#1873464 27-Sep-2017 09:36

Wiggum:

Here is another interesting scenario, lets say we end up with a Greens/Labour/NZ First government. National is short only one seat to form government.

A few months go by, everything sorta OK. then a labour MP dies somewhere. What are the rules around a by-election, and what happens if a National MP takes the Labour MP place? Would this mean that now National has enough seats for government, and government can be changed again?

Is this before or after the 1 April tax cut date?? :-)

Unsure of what the process is if the 1 vote margin went to National. Someone here will know. But with only 85% of votes counted, and that its expected that Labour will get another two seats, your tax cut is still in jeopardy.

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#1873470 27-Sep-2017 09:41

Batman:

Pumpedd:

If the Nats cant reach agreement with Winston, then Winston is in a poor position where he would basically have to accept whatever Jacinda was offering, or not be in Govt at all. Be fun to watch.

Somehow, I doubt Jacinda will be talking.

Imagine a 35 year old ex fish and chip shop worker trying to bargain with a top lawyer and ex DPM ... hmm ...

And if she did talk it could end in tears.

She has said today that Kelvin Davies will be talking.

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#1873471 27-Sep-2017 09:42

tdgeek:

Is this before or after the 1 April tax cut date?? :-)

Unsure of what the process is if the 1 vote margin went to National. Someone here will know. But with only 85% of votes counted, and that its expected that Labour will get another two seats, your tax cut is still in jeopardy.

The law will need to be changed to do away with the 1st April 2018 tax cut.

Still in a bit of jeopardy, but I don't see this taxcut going through anymore regardless of what government is formed, especially with Winston.

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#1873472 27-Sep-2017 09:43

Wiggum:

Geektastic:

One of the suggestions - a Labour/National coalition telling Winston to poke it - would be an interesting development in NZ.

That would be very interesting, and I kinda like the idea. In fact it sits far better with me that National/Greens.

Really it's the most logical outcome if MMP is supposed to be about creating a government that best reflects the voter intentions.

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#1873473 27-Sep-2017 09:44

Geektastic:

She has said today that Kelvin Davies will be talking.

This is a poor show IMO. If this woman wants to be PM, then surely she should be able to have a conversation with Winston. Things will be a lot more complicated if she is PM.

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#1873475 27-Sep-2017 09:49

Geektastic:

Wiggum:

Geektastic:

One of the suggestions - a Labour/National coalition telling Winston to poke it - would be an interesting development in NZ.

That would be very interesting, and I kinda like the idea. In fact it sits far better with me that National/Greens.

Really it's the most logical outcome if MMP is supposed to be about creating a government that best reflects the voter intentions.

Crazy! Maybe a National/Labour/Greens/NZF/Act/Maori if they were still there) coalition? 100% voter supported. may as well throw in TOP as they got votes

Now, if National got 51% of the seats/votes we would not be having this conversation, and you would be happy with that, at 51% of voter intentions

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#1873476 27-Sep-2017 09:50

Wiggum:

Geektastic:

She has said today that Kelvin Davies will be talking.

This is a poor show IMO. If this woman wants to be PM, then surely she should be able to have a conversation with Winston. Things will be a lot more complicated if she is PM.

Do you know why Kelvin Davies is talking? Or just more assumptions?

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#1873477 27-Sep-2017 09:57

tdgeek:

Wiggum:

Geektastic:

She has said today that Kelvin Davies will be talking.

This is a poor show IMO. If this woman wants to be PM, then surely she should be able to have a conversation with Winston. Things will be a lot more complicated if she is PM.

Do you know why Kelvin Davies is talking? Or just more assumptions?

Kelvin and Winson are apparently bosom buddies.

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#1873478 27-Sep-2017 09:59

tdgeek:

Wiggum:

Geektastic:

She has said today that Kelvin Davies will be talking.

This is a poor show IMO. If this woman wants to be PM, then surely she should be able to have a conversation with Winston. Things will be a lot more complicated if she is PM.

Do you know why Kelvin Davies is talking? Or just more assumptions?

According to the news, because she thinks he will work best with Winston.

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#1873479 27-Sep-2017 09:59

FYI

You would not put Steven Joyce in the position to negotiate with Winston, as they hate each other

Adern has no history, so that means no bad history but no good history, they met once on a PNG trip

Davis and Peters are close, Peters supported him in the election that Davis won. very close relationship. Makes sense, as would David Parker and Andrew Little. Clearly JA will talk and get to know Winston, but arm Labour with allies for the discussions. Its not just about the deal, its also about getting along

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#1873481 27-Sep-2017 10:03

tdgeek:

FYI

You would not put Steven Joyce in the position to negotiate with Winston, as they hate each other

Adern has no history, so that means no bad history but no good history, they met once on a PNG trip

Davis and Peters are close, Peters supported him in the election that Davis won. very close relationship. Makes sense, as would David Parker and Andrew Little. Clearly JA will talk and get to know Winston, but arm Labour with allies for the discussions. Its not just about the deal, its also about getting along

Well if Davis does a good job with Winston, he will be out of a job. Just saying....

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#1873483 27-Sep-2017 10:04

Wiggum:
Here is another interesting scenario, lets say we end up with a Greens/Labour/NZ First government. National is short only one seat to form government.

A few months go by, everything sorta OK. then a labour MP dies somewhere. What are the rules around a by-election, and what happens if a National MP takes the Labour MP place? Would this mean that now National has enough seats for government, and government can be changed again?

There will be a by election but yes correct.

Which might be whyWinston is waiting for the other votes to be finalised. Which means to me he is seriously considering going with Labour.

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