2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3282560 16-Sep-2024 12:22

The donation ticker on Trump's website shows several recent donations of USD$0.05c for some reason

Maga: ALERT. I am Donald J. Trump. FEAR NOT! I am safe and well, and no one was hurt. Thank God! But, there are people in this world who will do whatever it takes to stop us. I will not stop fighting for you. I will Never Surrender! I will always love you for supporting me. Through our UNITY we will Make America Great Again!

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#3282564 16-Sep-2024 12:26

gzt:

Trump has immediately updated his fundraising website.

The grift never ends.

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#3282570 16-Sep-2024 12:37

Obama had about nine credible attempted assassinations intercepted and goodness knows how many death threats. Trump has had six credible attempts intercepted so far I think.

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#3282573 16-Sep-2024 12:55

Several outlets have identified the suspect as Ryan Wesley Routh. Some outlets report Routh was a Trump supporter in 2016 and later became anti-trump for some reason:

Maine Wire: Although Routh had previously tweeted about having supported former President Trump in 2016, Routh’s social media is filled with anti-Trump rants.

Also the article indicates the individual attempted to recruit people to fight for Ukraine and may have previously travelled to Ukraine. I expect the conspiracists will go into a frenzy on this one. The article details a criminal history including an armed standoff with Carolina police in 2002 and possession of a weapon. Not a stable genius.

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#3282580 16-Sep-2024 13:13

Could we perhaps have a separate thread for the breakfast election poll, the morning election poll, the lunchtime election poll, the afternoon election poll, the dinner election poll, the evening election poll, ...? It's just clogging up the thread with cloud-shape interpretations, and the only poll that counts is the one in November.

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#3282581 16-Sep-2024 13:14

Yes, we've had breakfast poll, but what about second breakfast poll?

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#3282715 16-Sep-2024 17:30

neb:

Could we perhaps have a separate thread for the breakfast election poll, the morning election poll, the lunchtime election poll, the afternoon election poll, the dinner election poll, the evening election poll, ...? It's just clogging up the thread with cloud-shape interpretations, and the only poll that counts is the one in November.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels that way!

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TeaLeaf

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#3282717 16-Sep-2024 17:56

If we go down that route we should have a separate thread for everything election related. The information inside the Poll report is as relevant as it gets to an Election, in a poll obsessed Country. and while the election vote tally is important, polls serve a very different purpose. They are news items often, but they can carry some important statistics towards voting, aka public sentiment. This news is factual and as close to the relevance of the US poll obsessed election, to suggest otherwise is a bit churlish and I think if people dont like them, just dont read them.

There are many days when nobody posts polls, I agree if they show no change, or the report based off the poll carries no interesting data, its pointless to post them.

Highly likely national sentiment of todays actions will be in the polls, depending on what questions the polls ask.
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edit on another note, Im curious is the shooter registered for a party? Hawaii, long way to come and plan all this.

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#3282723 16-Sep-2024 18:27

Some people are grumpy today... Here is something:

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#3282727 16-Sep-2024 18:32

TeaLeaf:

If we go down that route we should have a separate thread for everything election related. The information inside the Poll report is as relevant as it gets to an Election, in a poll obsessed Country. and while the election vote tally is important, polls serve a very different purpose. They are news items often, but they can carry some important statistics towards voting, aka public sentiment. This news is factual and as close to the relevance of the US poll obsessed election, to suggest otherwise is a bit churlish and I think if people dont like them, just dont read them.

There are many days when nobody posts polls, I agree if they show no change, or the report based off the poll carries no interesting data, its pointless to post them.

Highly likely national sentiment of todays actions will be in the polls, depending on what questions the polls ask.
-------------

edit on another note, Im curious is the shooter registered for a party? Hawaii, long way to come and plan all this.

You are assuming everyone here shares the same level of interest in this. Yes, the election is important. Yes, the world will end if Trump wins. Yes, it is bad to accuse people of eating dogs and cats. But we are all capable of following the news and digging out the details. Occasional summaries of the highlights are probably sufficient for most people here. Maybe you should take a poll!

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

TeaLeaf

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#3282731 16-Sep-2024 18:51

Rikkitic:

You are assuming everyone here shares the same level of interest in this. Yes, the election is important. Yes, the world will end if Trump wins. Yes, it is bad to accuse people of eating dogs and cats. But we are all capable of following the news and digging out the details. Occasional summaries of the highlights are probably sufficient for most people here. Maybe you should take a poll!

Thats what we, or at least I try to do, provide summaries from the polls. High level numbers if they are suggesting a change in sentiment and anything interesting they asked in the polls themselves.

Geeze this guys stuff goes back a long way. I thought maybe that the time since the Crooks might mean the violence had simmered down. It is very unusual. Not like Trmp would be telling many folk when hes off for a round of golf? The extra security could have saved him.

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gzt

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#3282737 16-Sep-2024 19:22

Rikkitic:
neb: Could we perhaps have a separate thread for the breakfast election poll, the morning election poll, the lunchtime election poll, the afternoon election poll, the dinner election poll, the evening election poll, ...? It's just clogging up the thread with cloud-shape interpretations, and the only poll that counts is the one in November.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels that way!

Personally I don't mind the poll averages at all. I don't read those anywhere else. I do tend to skim those long posts for the skinny.

In any case the USA national averages are usually meaningless anyway, they maybe show a national trend over time, or which candidate has has bragging rights for the ups or downs that week.

They do not a show an electoral college projection or a path(s) to victory projection. No doubt both candidates have their own private polls on a daily or weekly basis for that.

gzt

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#3282796 16-Sep-2024 19:45

TeaLeaf: edit on another note, Im curious is the shooter registered for a party? Hawaii, long way to come and plan all this.

Several outlets are reporting Routh was a registered Democrat for the most recent primary in North Carolina. It is an indication of affiliation but does not really mean all that much. Registered voters may vote for whoever in the actual election.

Crooks the Butler Farm shooter was a registered Republican in 2022. Crooks was probably just a random nut that went off for some random reason. Crooks had researched campaign appearances for both candidates.

Routh, time will tell as the investigation continues. Indications are Routh had a ton of legal issues and a history of somewhat extreme statements. My guess is he could have gone either way on any day of the week although indications are that he became fixated on Trump at some point.

freitasm

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#3282797 16-Sep-2024 19:45

Can you folks just calm down?

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#3282822 16-Sep-2024 20:34

gzt:

In any case the USA national averages are usually meaningless anyway, they maybe show a national trend over time, or which candidate has has bragging rights for the ups or downs that week.

It really depends if they sustained.

If you go to the rtwh simulation you can add + or - 0.5% increments and see what that does to the EV map. as it impacts the electoral college, so swing states too. a +3% to Repub out of the blue from a pollster who is known to lean Red with +4 innacuracy, I tend not to bother much. Its the swells like we are seeing up from near dead rubber of late to +3. +4. +5 and today a +6, consistently is what you want to take notice of and it impacts everybody, from NY to North Carolina. Likely you would see that candidate increase in the (10) 7 swing states with consistency in the GE. Open them up and have a read, to see what they are asking. The funder gets to ask specific question from the pollster.

But the large ones like the morning consult ie 12000RV are often interesting. Deoending on LV or RV.

So with that consistency in the GE polls, the same with the swing state polls, have a quick flick through the better polls.

Ive stopped reporting avg's, they just not important now other than if Harris gets above 4% lead but shes already hitting 50s consistently.. With 50ish days to go, I just look at numbers from individual polls in the last few days. If there is a rise or dip I will often open a quality pollster poll. Like, will this recent info about another guy lurking dull the boost Harris was on, could it possibly increase Trump numbers, Then look at what they ask.

anyway sorry for the TLDR, but that might help you get more from polls. We all just trying to help one another :-)

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