Jacinda Ardern - our new PM

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#1892585 30-Oct-2017 13:37

tdgeek:

I agree. There is lots to fix, but at least they will give it a go, by doing something, rather than letting market forces manage these issues. I feel they will make progress, but will fall short. If they were smart they would admit well before next election that they will fall short but real progress has been made (if it has been).

Its a risk. But doing nothing or little is why we are here and they got in

They got in because of NZ First. In the absence of NZ First ... who knows what would have happened.

Mike

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#1892598 30-Oct-2017 14:01

MikeAqua:

tdgeek:

I agree. There is lots to fix, but at least they will give it a go, by doing something, rather than letting market forces manage these issues. I feel they will make progress, but will fall short. If they were smart they would admit well before next election that they will fall short but real progress has been made (if it has been).

Its a risk. But doing nothing or little is why we are here and they got in

They got in because of NZ First. In the absence of NZ First ... who knows what would have happened.

The vote showed a desire for change, as did NZF. Paddy Gower had an interesting review the other day. If NZF goes well, the centre right will stay at well under 50% and centre left will be well over. There arent any more centre right to call on. Plus ACT will fold.

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#1892613 30-Oct-2017 14:12

tdgeek:

MikeAqua:

tdgeek:

I agree. There is lots to fix, but at least they will give it a go, by doing something, rather than letting market forces manage these issues. I feel they will make progress, but will fall short. If they were smart they would admit well before next election that they will fall short but real progress has been made (if it has been).

Its a risk. But doing nothing or little is why we are here and they got in

They got in because of NZ First. In the absence of NZ First ... who knows what would have happened.

The vote showed a desire for change, as did NZF. Paddy Gower had an interesting review the other day. If NZF goes well, the centre right will stay at well under 50% and centre left will be well over. There arent any more centre right to call on. Plus ACT will fold.

It's an interesting thing. I am not completely certain how these parties work, in tems of who has final say about things, but I know that a significant number of the NZF MP's wanted to do a deal with National. WP has said he wants the new Government to create a waka jumping rule to prevent those MP's from defecting, therefore destabilizing the Coalition which of course Labour was more than happy to agree with. Someone I know close to NZF made a comment that his feeling was the majority of NZF wanted National and WP overruled it. How true that is, I am unsure, but I have no specific reason to doubt this person. I know a few NZF voters not happy about the final result, expecting that NZF and the largest party were to be in power. Some of those made quite clear during their voting and conversations with NZF that was their expectation.

Lots of people wanted a change, I don't think everyone wanted a change in Government. Hand on my heart I have not *spoken* to one person I know or have met since the final result was posted who is happy with the result. Interestingly I met 3 greens voters over the weekend who wanted a Greens National coalition!

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#1892617 30-Oct-2017 14:22

Jacinda this morning refused to even comment on coalition promise costs. Real sad that she cant tell us now, after all its not her money. I am guessing they have no clue yet, but were desperate to get into Government at any cost.

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#1892618 30-Oct-2017 14:23

Pumpedd:

Jacinda this morning refused to even comment on coalition promise costs. Real sad that she cant tell us now, after all its not her money. I am guessing they have no clue yet, but were desperate to get into Government at any cost.

She did say it would be released by the end of the year. I wonder what accountability will be taken if they don't do what they say and deliver a balanced budget with all costs of the coalition included.

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#1892619 30-Oct-2017 14:24

networkn:

tdgeek:

MikeAqua:

tdgeek:

I agree. There is lots to fix, but at least they will give it a go, by doing something, rather than letting market forces manage these issues. I feel they will make progress, but will fall short. If they were smart they would admit well before next election that they will fall short but real progress has been made (if it has been).

Its a risk. But doing nothing or little is why we are here and they got in

They got in because of NZ First. In the absence of NZ First ... who knows what would have happened.

The vote showed a desire for change, as did NZF. Paddy Gower had an interesting review the other day. If NZF goes well, the centre right will stay at well under 50% and centre left will be well over. There arent any more centre right to call on. Plus ACT will fold.

It's an interesting thing. I am not completely certain how these parties work, in tems of who has final say about things, but I know that a significant number of the NZF MP's wanted to do a deal with National. WP has said he wants the new Government to create a waka jumping rule to prevent those MP's from defecting, therefore destabilizing the Coalition which of course Labour was more than happy to agree with. Someone I know close to NZF made a comment that his feeling was the majority of NZF wanted National and WP overruled it. How true that is, I am unsure, but I have no specific reason to doubt this person. I know a few NZF voters not happy about the final result, expecting that NZF and the largest party were to be in power. Some of those made quite clear during their voting and conversations with NZF that was their expectation.

Lots of people wanted a change, I don't think everyone wanted a change in Government. Hand on my heart I have not *spoken* to one person I know or have met since the final result was posted who is happy with the result. Interestingly I met 3 greens voters over the weekend who wanted a Greens National coalition!

I pretty much agree. I felt Lab/Gre was an easier move for him, but I felt that as most NZF is National, that wouldnt go down well. Id say he sold it to the delegates, who are not the NZF vote base, so yes I get that.

TBH I couldn't care less who is in, I just want some action. Yes, the books are in good shape, but so would anybody's if they banked the cash and put back house maintenance. One day that will bite, when the "books" in real terms are not actually there. They just represented deferred spending. Ironically that in itself will probably give Labour only one term as the perception is they didn't fix everything. BE even said the books will weaken. IMO due to having to spend deferrals for the policies from both sides that upped the financial ante in the election. End of the day things will get done, and whoever is in next time will have to satisfy the voters to continue fixing and getting up to date. Then I will be happy. But it will take a decade at least, and that's just from a financial view.

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#1892625 30-Oct-2017 14:28

tdgeek:

The vote showed a desire for change, as did NZF. Paddy Gower had an interesting review the other day. If NZF goes well, the centre right will stay at well under 50% and centre left will be well over. There arent any more centre right to call on. Plus ACT will fold.

That seems like pure speculation / wishful thinking to me. People's voting preferences aren't set in stone, and there are probably many who voted Winston First who "soft right" voters who for whatever reason didn't want to vote National on this occasion. All three parties are (and a true Green party would be) so "centre" that it's hard to predict.

More importantly, a lot will depend on how things work out over the next 3/6 years. A move to the left could produce Finland-like happiness for all, or Venezuelan misery. I'd argue that voting at the next election will depend heavily on this.

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#1892634 30-Oct-2017 14:36

shk292:

tdgeek:

The vote showed a desire for change, as did NZF. Paddy Gower had an interesting review the other day. If NZF goes well, the centre right will stay at well under 50% and centre left will be well over. There arent any more centre right to call on. Plus ACT will fold.

That seems like pure speculation / wishful thinking to me. People's voting preferences aren't set in stone, and there are probably many who voted Winston First who "soft right" voters who for whatever reason didn't want to vote National on this occasion. All three parties are (and a true Green party would be) so "centre" that it's hard to predict.

More importantly, a lot will depend on how things work out over the next 3/6 years. A move to the left could produce Finland-like happiness for all, or Venezuelan misery. I'd argue that voting at the next election will depend heavily on this.

It was his article not mine although it did read well, but NZF is National. As you say it all depends on the next 3 years. If they do pretty good, they get another term, if they do just ok, its goneburger for another extended period. Plus there is not the money to fix everything right now

sen8or

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#1892638 30-Oct-2017 14:53

tdgeek:

shk292:

tdgeek:

The vote showed a desire for change, as did NZF. Paddy Gower had an interesting review the other day. If NZF goes well, the centre right will stay at well under 50% and centre left will be well over. There arent any more centre right to call on. Plus ACT will fold.

That seems like pure speculation / wishful thinking to me. People's voting preferences aren't set in stone, and there are probably many who voted Winston First who "soft right" voters who for whatever reason didn't want to vote National on this occasion. All three parties are (and a true Green party would be) so "centre" that it's hard to predict.

More importantly, a lot will depend on how things work out over the next 3/6 years. A move to the left could produce Finland-like happiness for all, or Venezuelan misery. I'd argue that voting at the next election will depend heavily on this.

It was his article not mine although it did read well, but NZF is National. As you say it all depends on the next 3 years. If they do pretty good, they get another term, if they do just ok, its goneburger for another extended period. Plus there is not the money to fix everything right now

With Labours new additional taxes, money won't be a problem........

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#1892642 30-Oct-2017 14:57

sen8or:

tdgeek:

shk292:

tdgeek:

The vote showed a desire for change, as did NZF. Paddy Gower had an interesting review the other day. If NZF goes well, the centre right will stay at well under 50% and centre left will be well over. There arent any more centre right to call on. Plus ACT will fold.

That seems like pure speculation / wishful thinking to me. People's voting preferences aren't set in stone, and there are probably many who voted Winston First who "soft right" voters who for whatever reason didn't want to vote National on this occasion. All three parties are (and a true Green party would be) so "centre" that it's hard to predict.

More importantly, a lot will depend on how things work out over the next 3/6 years. A move to the left could produce Finland-like happiness for all, or Venezuelan misery. I'd argue that voting at the next election will depend heavily on this.

It was his article not mine although it did read well, but NZF is National. As you say it all depends on the next 3 years. If they do pretty good, they get another term, if they do just ok, its goneburger for another extended period. Plus there is not the money to fix everything right now

With Labours new additional taxes, money won't be a problem........

What one's are they? Water? Income Tax? GST?

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#1892653 30-Oct-2017 15:48

Pumpedd:

Jacinda this morning refused to even comment on coalition promise costs. Real sad that she cant tell us now, after all its not her money. I am guessing they have no clue yet, but were desperate to get into Government at any cost.

It has only been a week or so since the coalition was announced. The Affected Government Departments would only now be starting the budget forecasts for Cabinet.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#1892826 30-Oct-2017 21:16

MikeB4:

Pumpedd:

Jacinda this morning refused to even comment on coalition promise costs. Real sad that she cant tell us now, after all its not her money. I am guessing they have no clue yet, but were desperate to get into Government at any cost.

It has only been a week or so since the coalition was announced. The Affected Government Departments would only now be starting the budget forecasts for Cabinet.

Doesn't work like that....she will know what the costs will be as she would have had access to Treasury officials as well as Labour officials who would know roughly what the costs will be.

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#1892860 30-Oct-2017 23:21

Pumpedd:

MikeB4:

Pumpedd:

Jacinda this morning refused to even comment on coalition promise costs. Real sad that she cant tell us now, after all its not her money. I am guessing they have no clue yet, but were desperate to get into Government at any cost.

It has only been a week or so since the coalition was announced. The Affected Government Departments would only now be starting the budget forecasts for Cabinet.

Doesn't work like that....she will know what the costs will be as she would have had access to Treasury officials as well as Labour officials who would know roughly what the costs will be.

I agree. But roughly isn't good enough. Whether Nats or Labs got WP's tick, there is an issue. What they campaigned on is now subject to NZF's policy costs. There are a few ways to absorb that. Tax increases. GST increases. Spread policy costs over a longer period. Borrow. This applies to whoever is in Govt.

MikeB4

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#1892943 31-Oct-2017 09:55

Pumpedd:

MikeB4:

Pumpedd:

Jacinda this morning refused to even comment on coalition promise costs. Real sad that she cant tell us now, after all its not her money. I am guessing they have no clue yet, but were desperate to get into Government at any cost.

It has only been a week or so since the coalition was announced. The Affected Government Departments would only now be starting the budget forecasts for Cabinet.

Doesn't work like that....she will know what the costs will be as she would have had access to Treasury officials as well as Labour officials who would know roughly what the costs will be.

Are you saying that the Ministries and Agencies would have done budget papers for all contenders for the election prior the outcome being known? They would have done estimates based on likely scenarios. Government Departments work for the Government of the day not for political Parties, they would have done their own papers. Now that the Coalition elect is known and the major policy agreements known the various Government Agencies will be working to have papers ready for when the new Ministers are sworn in and take office. Jacinda Arderns statement that she will have figure by Christmas is a bit risky as there will be considerable work to be done, it will be impressive if she does meet that schedule.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

networkn

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#1892957 31-Oct-2017 10:05

I see they are renaming the Vunerable Children Department. The minister in charge of it made some comment about now she will represent *all* children not just vulnerable ones. Surely she could have just changed the focus rather than spending money on a change of name?!

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