2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3295699 10-Oct-2024 20:00

gzt:

Harris may well be able to deal with that. The Harris campaign will be seriously considering the pros and cons.

Trump has already said he's too chick...er...won't be doing another debate, since he thinks he aced the first one 🙄

TeaLeaf

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#3295858 11-Oct-2024 09:45

This is tightening up every day in the polls with a huge amount released today. 2024 Presidential Election Polls - Includes Electoral College — Race to the WH

Its going to be fascinating how it plays out, with all 7 swing states in essentially a toss up situation.

Looks very much like coming down to turn out (more than ever).

at the moment it looks like the Dems are going to lose the Senate.

quickymart

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#3295949 11-Oct-2024 11:44

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/they-served-with-trump-they-have

A really interesting read in The Bulwark today, particularly all the former staffers from Trump's administration who are standing up to say he's not fit for office.

Also this was quite pertinent:

WHEN IN DOUBT, BLAME AN IMMIGRANT: Speaking of insane cranks spreading lies about hurricanes, here was Donald Trump at a rally in Michigan just last week: “The Harris-Biden administration says they don’t have any money [for hurricane relief] . . . They spent it all on illegal migrants. They stole the FEMA money just like they stole it from a bank.”

We all know Trump makes up lies like this constantly. But before we read this excellent new piece from Popular Information, we hadn’t realized quite how many of Trump’s lies follow exactly the same brain-dead formula: Identify problem. Blame immigrants.

Just go down their bullet points:

The Trump campaign blames undocumented immigrants for a “crime wave.”

The Trump campaign blames undocumented immigrants for voter fraud.

The Trump campaign blames undocumented immigrants for driving up housing costs.

The Trump campaign claims undocumented immigrants will bankrupt Medicare and Social Security.

The Trump campaign blames undocumented immigrants for taking jobs from American citizens.

The Trump campaign blames undocumented immigrants for smuggling fentanyl.

The Trump campaign blames undocumented immigrants for inflation.

The US must have some really busy immigrants crossing into its borders these days! 😮

ezbee

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#3295966 11-Oct-2024 13:04

It does not help when you have this nutcasery.
With Jill Stein seeming to revel in splitting the vote and giving Trump a win.
Its going to be that narrow in some swing states that they may decide the King.

There are those that want everything to burn and get worse, so they may be proved right.
MAGA, Teaparty, USA Greens and especially Jill Stein becoming the same side of same coin.

Its not just votes drifting to candidate with no chance to make a positive difference, giving Trump an extra vote he does not have to fight against.
Confusion being sewn that there is 'not a stark contrast', every vote counting, and those in despair who just don't vote at all.

Jill Stein sees 'no lesser evil' between Harris, Trump
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/jill-stein-sees-no-lesser-evil-between-harris-trump-interview-2024-10-07/

TeaLeaf

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#3295974 11-Oct-2024 13:21

quickymart:

A really interesting read in The Bulwark today

Bulwark is usually on the money.

again that award winning guy who made "#Untruth" documentary is really worth watching to understand the cult phenomena. To me its no different to the likes of Hitler or even Puts with Ukr. They play on peoples fears, they then turn to people patriotism. There should be some kind of laws to prevent dictatorship grabs, like not being able to consistently state lies as a methodology to brainwash etc.

So Ive been trying to get a vibe based on the numbers. 2016 Don won with +3mill voter advantage (Hillary failed to get people to turn out as most thought it looked in the bag). But last election Biden won with circa +7mill record turn out of 81M, but was also a very high voter turn out overall ~158M of 238M eligible voters. Biden ended up with 51.3% of the popular vote vs 46.9%. Currently pollster avgs have Harris at 49.1% vs 46.1%. Biden won 306 to 232 in the EC.

a video I watched a month back compared 4 different election prediction sites (not all just avg based) and the number they all came back was Harris win with 276EC, which is what she holds currently based on averages.

There are no poll averages to suggest Don will beat Harris on percentages in the swing states. So with the "Swing States" its simply down to who of the 50/50 polled, will have the higher turn out to vote.

Whilst its hard to gauge Don's grass roots campaign (he seems to be relying a lot on the likes of Musks Pac and other technology based canvassing). We know Biden was excellent at getting the grass roots campaign organised across the country with multiple offices in most states. We also know Harris has added to this with hundreds of thousands of new volunteers. The people who knock on your door and try and sell you to vote for XYZ and then they check you have voted etc.

also another positive indicator for Harris is the majority of her $1B+ in donations have been mostly individuals rather than a smaller number of huge donations.

So whilst the averages are close in 7 states, provided the grass roots can get numbers to turn out similar to Biden, if not more, you would expect her to do well. I also think whilst young people typically do not vote well, this campaign they are extremely engaged and they have the most to lose and the most to gain with Harris promising some very good middle class policies, so their motivation to vote should be high.

Id love to know the number at the End who voted for Harris that are republicans.

But Don is far from out of it.

TeaLeaf

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#3296026 11-Oct-2024 13:33

ezbee:

Jill Stein sees 'no lesser evil' between Harris, Trump

That is just BS. Why do americans keep blaming the global economy and trade deficit due to covid which caused inflation, on Biden. Its like they think somebody could have worked some kind of miracle, like the US is exempt from a pandemic recession. Record economic growth and employment DURING the recession isnt good enough. Its so absurd. and clearly Harris is offering a much brighter future with Policies aiming to spread the wealth bottom up, thats just dumb of Stein.

Whilst I agree re Palestine, I think anybody with a heart wants to see a ceasefire, the US cannot force Israel to do anything. and if they do Don will just jump on the Jewish american voters saying, see they are against you. Its a no win situation.

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SaltyNZ

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#3296248 11-Oct-2024 18:02

TeaLeaf:That is just BS. Why do americans keep blaming the global economy and trade deficit due to covid which caused inflation, on Biden.

Well, it worked here too.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

TeaLeaf

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#3296281 11-Oct-2024 19:19

SaltyNZ:

Well, it worked here too.

So far the speeches Ive seen Obama do, he has pointed out things in plain English that I had been saying Harris should be doing, even though it seems obvious, it goes over the head of those not engaged.

Obama is destroying some myths like things were better under Don, he says because it was my economy until Covid hit and Trumo compltely mismanaged the situation medically and economically. Things like showing in simple ways why Don only having "Concepts of a Plan" is simply not good enough. He really does simplify what Harris is trying to offer in more digestable language vs the Mess that is Don.

In an ideal world Id have Biden decide not to run early in the year and put forward Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore as Veep. I think they missed a trick.

But hopefully ppl like Obama can smooth over the awkward side of Harris.

TeaLeaf

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#3296307 11-Oct-2024 22:07

virtualtout.com

and then there is the virtual trout who show Harris decline in the last 15 days, which honestly feels about right with the ways she is handling the media stuff.

They use a very different methodology to averages.

But the way Trump keeps attacking ppl, it also feels like sooner or later hes going to cross a line, but what that line is, is probably bizarre given he gets away with everything..

quickymart

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#3296321 12-Oct-2024 07:39

Quite a few good election-related cartoons this week - not really surprising as there's been a fair bit going on:

(this one isn't strictly about Trump but more about one of his close morons who has a hand in spreading his relief fund misinformation):

now I know why he chickened out of the last debate:

kingdragonfly

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#3296375 12-Oct-2024 10:10

How could Trump overhaul US financial regulators if he wins on Nov. 5?:

Summary: the common man who hold any monies or securities just about anywhere are screwed. Good bye all protection from banks, financial institutes, stocks, commodities, and even bank deposits

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kingdragonfly

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#3296380 12-Oct-2024 10:21

Watch: Trump Completely Loses Train of Thought in Awkward Speech: The New Republic
...
"And, it’s so simple, I mean, you know. This isn’t like Elon with his rocket ships that land within 12 inches on the moon where they wanted to land,” Trump said. “Or, he gets the … engines back—that was the first I realized, I said, ‘Who the hell did that?’ I saw engines about three, four years ago. These things were coming—cylinders, no wings, no nothing—and they’re coming down very slowly, landing on a raft in the middle of the ocean someplace, with a circle, boom!”

Reminded me of the Biden circles that he used to have, right?”

He’d have eight circles, and he couldn’t fill ’em up. But then I heard he beat us with the popular vote. He couldn’t fill up the eight circles, I always loved those circles, they were so beautiful, so beautiful to look at

Biden used to have the press stand in those circles, cause they couldn’t get the people. And then I heard we lost, no we’re never gonna let that happen again.”

But— We’ve been abused by other countries, we’ve been abused by our own politicians, really, more than other countries."

Trump then appeared to lose his train of thought as he complained about Democrats opposing the SAVE Act, a longshot Republican bill that would require proof of citizenship to vote in a presidential election—something that is already mandated by the federal government.

"Democrats don’t want voter ID, you know why because they want to cheat. But they don’t wanna—I say, ohhh—they don’t wanna—when I first, I thought, I thought I was seeing things. I thought I was … like … I didn’t hear that when I first started this who—they’d say, ‘The Democrats will not approve voter ID.’ And it’s only gotten worse!

The word grocery—it’s a sort of simple word. It sort of means everything you eat. The stomach is speaking, it always does And I have more complaints about bacon, things going up. Double, triple, quadruple.”

Trump repeatedly got caught up over his choice of words. At another point, Trump continued to seem exceedingly insecure about his own incendiary rhetoric, as he attempted to deliver his fire-and-brimstone fearmongering about large foreign companies.

“We allowed them to come in and raid and rape our country. That’s what they did. ‘Oh, he used the word rape!’ That’s right, I used the word rape. They raped our country.”
...

TeaLeaf

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#3296381 12-Oct-2024 10:22

I gotta say his entire speech was good, but this bit aimed at white male maga's gave me some hope. This is the kind of stuff the Dems would have got if they had voted Josh Shapiro for Nominee. But Biden left the party little option, they could have still voted it out, but the Optics that close to election day would have bee completely different.

I hope Obama is touring the entire blue wall, because todays polls show the 3 states trending further down, although so has Don in Georgia and NC. The polls are unimportant, its more the trends. I suspect a lot of these pollsters of late have been heavily right leaners but havnt checked.

TeaLeaf

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#3296384 12-Oct-2024 10:54

I LOVE this from Shapiro. addresses the oxymoron that is the maga slogan. When was america greater? (are they thinking when it was segregated)

Shapiro is sharp of mind on the fly too. But this is what Ive wanted somebody to address for a long time. It also debunks the myths that things were better under Don, when in fact that was Obama's economy Don piggy backed off etc.

Is there a way to share a YT time stamped video with Icon image? about 5:45 in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmULJFZEycw

kingdragonfly

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#3296444 12-Oct-2024 14:59

'That just made no sense': Mika reacts to Trump's bizarre speech in Detroit

MSNBC

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