NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3160650 17-Nov-2023 16:29

tdgeek:

Badsed on media reports from the leaders today, it appears reasonably likley that the deals will be sealed soon. Early next week is my estimate. Keen to see if ACT push themselves into being a real player, or remain the usual bit player. They wanted real chnage not just a government change

Once they finish the negotiations, they have to take the resulting deal back to the Boards of each party for final sign off, that will take a couple days to get them all together.

I suspect they will want to do it in person to reduce the chances that the deals are leaked to the media before the final announcement by the leaders.

Early next week is my guess for the Formal announcement and then swearing in of ministers, and then parliament to reopen in the last week of November....

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#3160651 17-Nov-2023 16:32

GV27:

The negotiations are happening behind closed doors. We generally don't get blow-by-blow updates of the negotiations no matter who is forming the government. It's quite common for party members to vote on accepting agreements that the public doesn't see - the Greens and NZ First both do this, from memory.

I'm not sure what the expectation is here but I'm also not sure whatever they think should be happening is that realistic.

the media doesn't need to say it. but Luxon declared he will finish negotiations and get to APEC. Winston made sure he won't.

whether the media is saying it or not, the tail is wagging the dog as we speak. (he's done it to everyone in the past during initial negotiations)

it's not the end though, the story is yet to be written as you are correctly alluding to

let's hope the dog gets control of the tail or the next 3 years will be a bit problematic. (in past elections, once the deals have been signed Winston had not caused further trouble, but getting to the signature bit is when Winston does his power play thing...)

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#3160665 17-Nov-2023 17:33

Sometime in the new year it will all need to be done again. At least it keeps the news media busy.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#3160666 17-Nov-2023 18:00

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/christopher-luxons-embarrassing-coalition-negotiations-with-act-nz-first-political-round-up/7A62Y3CRDFHZ7CS4BO5PUPGCEA/

I guess we're all finally learning that despite Luxon upselling his negotiating skills at every possible opportunity (because he used to run an airline, you know) Bryce is right here - politics is totally different and Luxon has seriously misread the room.

I also have to give credit to David Seymour. No, I would never vote for him either, but I take my hat off to him at the way he's been handling questions from the media - polite and indeed professional about it all.

I feel that Luxon is just repeating the canned responses he's been given or not speaking the media at all, and Winston is being all waspish telling the media to go away, etc. Must say I'm glad I didn't vote for him.

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#3160675 17-Nov-2023 19:06

Batman:

the media doesn't need to say it. but Luxon declared he will finish negotiations and get to APEC. Winston made sure he won't.

whether the media is saying it or not, the tail is wagging the dog as we speak. (he's done it to everyone in the past during initial negotiations)

Depends how you spin it. If Peters or Seymour are digging their heels in, blame them. if Luxon is digging his heels in, blame him. You do not know. What we do know is its a 3 person negotiation. Seems a bit pointless to point fingers when you do not know. You're as bad as the media

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#3160684 17-Nov-2023 19:33

MikeB4: Sometime in the new year it will all need to be done again. At least it keeps the news media busy.

You think we'll end up having another election? That would be a first - but I suppose there's a first time for everything.

Also - here's Tova's opinion piece on the whole thing since it was mentioned earlier - and who's really in charge (read: not Luxon):

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301010342/tova-obrien-one-of-the-most-stunning-and-humiliating-displays-of-political-brinkmanship

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#3160719 18-Nov-2023 00:20

quickymart:

and who's really in charge (read: not Luxon):

How can he be in charge? He may be holding more cards, but Winston has a few jokers.

quickymart

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#3160747 18-Nov-2023 07:45

https://archive.ph/8iKOR >> I just knew that Steve Braunias would have the best column covering off the week's events in politics today 😀

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#3160759 18-Nov-2023 08:35

This article sums up my feelings quite well. This has been my sense of Luxon from the beginning. If he even manages to form a government, it will be short-lived and low on accomplishments.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

quickymart

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#3160765 18-Nov-2023 09:02

Rikkitic:

This article sums up my feelings quite well. This has been my sense of Luxon from the beginning. If he even manages to form a government, it will be short-lived and low on accomplishments.

Same link I posted above 😀 but for the record I agree with you - and Bryce Edwards is right. Luxon's "negotiating skills" seem to be failing him. His "merger and acquisition" skills he keeps banging on about apparently having seem to be a bit wanting, as well: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301010866/chris-luxon-reluctant-to-explain-the-merger-and-acquisition-experience-he-often-talks-up

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#3160767 18-Nov-2023 09:03

Nothing that wasn't predicted. It started with "I used to run an airline."

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#3160803 18-Nov-2023 11:31

Rikkitic: This article sums up my feelings quite well. This has been my sense of Luxon from the beginning. If he even manages to form a government, it will be short-lived and low on accomplishments.

Article: [] his failure to achieve a coalition government.

That seems a bit premature.

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#3160805 18-Nov-2023 11:55

Not sure why everyone is so tough on Luxon when he has a hellish tough task to form an agreement with both Peters and Act. An almost impossible task on its own let alone trying to get a lasting agreement. They all "want" but neither will be prepared to "give". It hasnt actually been that long considering how important it was to wait for special votes before starting. Labour gave Peters so much when they formed a coalition with him as they wanted power at any cost, and I am sure the Nats will be quite tougher.

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#3160807 18-Nov-2023 12:15

Luxon could always give the Green Party a call for a confidence and supply arrangement

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/124833/larger-green-party-caucus-says-its-open-working-national-climate-light-rail

That is very unlikely for multiple reasons isn't it.

Rikkitic

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#3160808 18-Nov-2023 12:18

Part of the judgement of Luxon also has to do with the way he deals with the press. The complete lack of willingness to discuss anything and the fobbing off of all questions with the same repeated slogans and stupid fixed smile says something about his character and abilities. He is unlikely to be any more transparent in the future. By contrast, Seymour handles this kind of thing much better. The difference in style between them is telling.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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