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arcon

222 posts

Master Geek


#277259 4-Oct-2020 15:40
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For a change this thread is specifically for Electorate disussion. So it could be a big nothing lol. But I found a link to historical electorate results which may be of interest to some:

 

NZ Historical Electorate Profiles

 

I'm from the North Shore... yeah... About as meaningless an electorate vote as you can get with National consistently crushing at 60% for the past 20 years :/ Living here for 40 years its plain as day why things are that way though.

 

What are your thoughts on how your specific electorate is doing? Do you feel particular candidates have done anything different or special that got their message across? Know who they are or care?

 

The signage is pretty sad lol, "I'm standing next to my leader because you don't know who the hell I am, but they are likeable so now so am I"...


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Rikkitic
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  #2579152 4-Oct-2020 17:19
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I am in the Tukituki electorate. There are a lot of farmers here and it is probably fairly conservative, though we had a Labour MP for awhile. Then National rode in on John Key’s coattails and we ended up with Craig Foss, an MP even National thought was useless. He saw the writing on the wall and fled to the Regional Council, where he could keep sucking on the public teat as a politician for life. 

 

Lawrence Yule, a long-time Hastings mayor, took over the National seat. He seems very much a junior figure, though he undertook a lot of development initiatives as mayor, most of which I disapproved of. He is a monument builder and not a suitable figure for this time, though he is loudly claiming credit for a National commitment to fund improvements to our hospital. His Labour opponent, Anna Lorck, has tried unsuccessfully to unseat him in the past. The Jacinda effect may get her in this time. I don’t really know much about her but I voted for her because she is not National. 

 

I fully agree with the comment about election hoardings. Here’s my grinning face. Vote for me. Never mind my policies, if I have any, just vote for me because I say so and this is my face grinning at you.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


GV27
2388 posts

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  #2579343 5-Oct-2020 07:28
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I grew up in Tamaki. I will always have a soft spot for it. For the most part it is quite well-off but not without issues. There is simmering tension over housing intensification which is equal parts NIMBYism but also a logical reaction to the Council actively removing services from the area (like buses). It will forever be a National safe-seat and so Labour doesn't put any real resource into it. It could be a much nicer part of the city but it gets written off as a rich area - which is a shame, because there's plenty of people there who aren't loaded and who could do with better bus services and so on. 

 

I currently live in Upper Harbour, which is a massive electorate and probably should be smaller. Between Ngaro in Te Atatu and Bezzant in Upper Harbour, National are far from a lock from winning either of the Westie seats. Chris Penk will take Helensville comfortably but Ngaro has made no discernible inroads against Twyford, who is easily the worst performing government minister. It's a shame as the North West quarter is taking on huge numbers of houses and infill development, but with a paucity of transport options compared to other areas who refuse to intensify at all. The residents out here deserve better. 

 

Frankly, if Te Atatu doesn't turn blue in this election then National should be thinking long and hard about why they persist with their candidate year after year. 


 
 
 
 


MikeAqua
6058 posts

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  #2579641 5-Oct-2020 14:54
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I'm in Blenheim (Kaikoura electorate) where the MP is Smith .  Previously I was Nelson, where the MP is  .... Smith of course!

 

Looks like Smith has a fight on his hands in Nelson.

 

Meanwhile in Kaikoura, Smith will wee in.  The economy is built around primary industry, so labour has no show.

 

 





Mike


Rikkitic
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  #2586746 17-Oct-2020 20:04
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Anna Lorck well ahead of Yule. That is quite a turnaround. There is hope for Hastings.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


arcon

222 posts

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  #2586896 18-Oct-2020 09:27
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Well a pretty historic night for MMP... link to electorate results

 

As expected National won North Shore making it the 25th successive victory since 1949. But the Red Tsunami was definitely felt as 37% is a strong showing for Labour here..


jonathan18
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  #2587001 18-Oct-2020 11:24
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MikeAqua:

 

Meanwhile in Kaikoura, Smith will wee in.  The economy is built around primary industry, so labour has no show.

 

 

Sure, Smith held it in Kaikoura, but he certainly wasn't immune to the massive nation-wide swing against National - N 43 vs L 37% for 2020 (53 vs 27% in 2017).

 

And as for the electorate vote - a good chunk more of that 'economy built around primary industry' voted for Labour than National this time around: N 31 v L 44% (N 53 v L 29% in 2017). But no surprise to see ACT did well (11.6% in 2020 vs 0.38% in 2017!). 


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