Electoral Party most likely to do something about Auckland housing bubble?

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#1538039 22-Apr-2016 12:24

Jase2985:

nathan:

the solution is Auckland Council allows more land to be freed up

problem is there is not that much more land to free up

Maybe get developers and businesses to create a small town, one that is structured, CBD, river way, an industrial area, and residential area? Maybe between AKL and Hamilton?

And where there is room to expand without corrupting the structure. Need some form of enticements. I don't really know the geography there tho. A single, expandable effort may be easier than adding to what we have?

networkn

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#1538040 22-Apr-2016 12:27

tdgeek:

Jase2985:

nathan:

the solution is Auckland Council allows more land to be freed up

problem is there is not that much more land to free up

Maybe get developers and businesses to create a small town, one that is structured, CBD, river way, an industrial area, and residential area? Maybe between AKL and Hamilton?

And where there is room to expand without corrupting the structure. Need some form of enticements. I don't really know the geography there tho. A single, expandable effort may be easier than adding to what we have?

Heh, how long do you imagine that would take and how much would it cost? I think you'd find pretty smartly the cost of houses there would be pretty high quickly as well.

MikeB4

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#1538043 22-Apr-2016 12:31

The long term solution in my unlearned opinion is we need to reverse the 70's and 80's disaster of centralisation of commerce and industry. We created this mess when we decided that every head office and major business needed to be in Auckland.

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#1538053 22-Apr-2016 12:49

networkn:
tdgeek:

Jase2985:

nathan:

the solution is Auckland Council allows more land to be freed up

problem is there is not that much more land to free up

Maybe get developers and businesses to create a small town, one that is structured, CBD, river way, an industrial area, and residential area? Maybe between AKL and Hamilton?

And where there is room to expand without corrupting the structure. Need some form of enticements. I don't really know the geography there tho. A single, expandable effort may be easier than adding to what we have?

Heh, how long do you imagine that would take and how much would it cost? I think you'd find pretty smartly the cost of houses there would be pretty high quickly as well.

To some extent this place and processes both of you speak of already exist and is called Huntly.

ajobbins

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#1538054 22-Apr-2016 12:49

It's plainly obvious that there are a multitude of factors driving up price in Auckland, with flow on effects to other regions. Any action needs to consider at least a few of these factors but everyone seems to look at only one or two in isolation.

Relatively low interest rates
Positive net migration, the majority of which heading for Auckland
Non resident foreign buyers
Easy of equity leverage
Tax incentives including negative gearing and lack of (enforcement of) CGT on investment property
Supply scarcity of (zoned) land
Urban planning rules that are out of sync with the size and scale of cities like Auckland

NZ (And Australia) need to take a long hard look at ALL these factors. You can chip away at some of these to stabalise price growth in the short term without risking a deflationary shock to the market. Having any kind of incentives for investment in non productive assets (housing) makes absolutely no sense in the current environment and hasn't done so for a long time. However, those who are owners already don't want to give up the gravy train and all the politicians know it.

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#1538069 22-Apr-2016 13:01

MikeB4:
The long term solution in my unlearned opinion is we need to reverse the 70's and 80's disaster of centralisation of commerce and industry. We created this mess when we decided that every head office and major business needed to be in Auckland.

Were there specific policies that encouraged every head office and major business to locate in Auckland?

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#1538077 22-Apr-2016 13:13

MikeB4:

The long term solution in my unlearned opinion is we need to reverse the 70's and 80's disaster of centralisation of commerce and industry. We created this mess when we decided that every head office and major business needed to be in Auckland.

You mean the way every modern economy on Earth is centralized? I don't think it is a problem created by New Zealanders.

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Sam91

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#1538079 22-Apr-2016 13:16

Higher density housing like Hobsonville Point is a step in the right direction.

UHD

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#1538082 22-Apr-2016 13:19

My view is that this is simply a market correction, too many people want to live in Auckland and for various (already stated) reasons this is not possible. Prices will continue to rise until enough people who want to buy houses in Auckland realise better prospects exists outside Auckland and take them.

It is crazy to see so many people railing against the government on this, there is nothing in the short or medium term they can do to make 13,000 new homes a year appear and that should not be their concern in my opinion.

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#1538089 22-Apr-2016 13:26

IMO, solution is simple yet not instant/easy/not in this century.

- more apartment blocks across inner city (Melbourne style)

- fast rail to Whangarei and Hamilton.

helping others at evgenyk.nz

Jase2985

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#1538090 22-Apr-2016 13:29

Sam91:

Higher density housing like Hobsonville Point is a step in the right direction.

it is but not at the price they are being sold for

MikeAqua

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#1538091 22-Apr-2016 13:30

Is it actually a bubble? There are published mathematical test for a bubble. A simple one I have seen: If log transformed growth data shows exponential growth it's a bubble and likely to crash.

Personally I think what is happening in Auckland is the market functioning. Lots of demand to live there, supply (available housing within reasonable commuting range) is limited. This suggests there is genuine basis for the growth.

No political party would dare do anything to reverse the growth. It would be election suicide Options to slow growth and wait for incomes to catch up so that housing unaffordable-ness is comparable to major cities overseas are: -

- 'Densification' (which existing residents object to, amd may nto suit first home buyers due to banks' deposit requirements);

- Better rail transport within AKL to outlying cities that could be dormitory suburbs e.g. Hamilton, Whangarei etc (Auckland ratepayers won't fund);

- Making more land available (pointless without better transport - see 'rate payers won't fund').

The current situation will persist until Aucklanders are prepared to accept trade-offs of some kind.

Mike

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#1538092 22-Apr-2016 13:30

UHD:

My view is that this is simply a market correction, too many people want to live in Auckland and for various (already stated) reasons this is not possible. Prices will continue to rise until enough people who want to buy houses in Auckland realise better prospects exists outside Auckland and take them.

It is crazy to see so many people railing against the government on this, there is nothing in the short or medium term they can do to make 13,000 new homes a year appear and that should not be their concern in my opinion.

It's only partly genuine housing demand tho, many of the factors driving up demand are for profit reasons. People have equity, they see a rising (tax advantageous) market, they buy with borrowed money, all on paper with no actual dollars down, and the cycle continues.

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cr250bromo

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#1538093 22-Apr-2016 13:31

MileHighKiwi:

Auckland has suffered from years of poor planning, that’s the council’s fault, not central government.

I don't think the government can absolve itself of responsibility - they forced the unpopular supercity/council amalgamation onto Auckland in 2011 - this was supposed to fix the dysfunctional relationship between the councils, ARTA and so on. It's almost like they have created a monster that's too big for them to control!

BlueShift

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#1538094 22-Apr-2016 13:31

gzt:
networkn

Heh, how long do you imagine that would take and how much would it cost? I think you'd find pretty smartly the cost of houses there would be pretty high quickly as well.

To some extent this place and processes both of you speak of already exist and is called Huntly.

I was thinking of Pokeno actually. Their population is rapidly increasing, house prices and rates are shooting up. Still bloody good ice creams though.

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