Interesting video about Brexit

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#1581278 27-Jun-2016 17:31

SJB:

I certainly agree with your point about 60-40 being easier to accept for the losers.

It's a difficult question especially when the vote is about something so emotive. Maybe they should have had a referendum about the referendum rules. Hang on a minute.....

And for that reason I still feel that it should have been campaigned with lots of real numbers thrown around. Then at least the emotive ones who wanted to leave, might still want to leave and wont vote cos they know its dumb? What we gain, what we lose, all in STG. Immigration in bods and STG. Everyone can understand that. But it seems many took the heart approach. Anger votes.

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#1581307 27-Jun-2016 17:36

DarthKermit:

Anyone got their crystal ball handy to see WTF things are going to look like in Europe in 1, 5, 10 years' time?

What its looking like this Friday is also a long shot to pick.

shk292

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#1581308 27-Jun-2016 17:37

One very important thing to remember is that a vote to "remain" is not a vote for "no change". It is a vote for "change in whatever way the EU government wants us to change". Whereas a vote to "exit" is a vote for national self determination. It would therefore be very unfair and biased for one type of change to require a 60% (eg) majority, whereas the other sort of change requires only 40%.

The only way to decide this is what has been done - a straight majority vote. Industrial-strength whinging and the denigration of the intelligence of those who hold an alternate view to yours should not be enough to subvert the democratic process.

Another point to note is that the Germans, French etc can huff and puff as much as they like, but only the UK govt can invoke Article 50, and they can do this whenever they want, or not at all (as far as the EU govt is concerned).

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#1581315 27-Jun-2016 17:46

Nice quote here from a politician:

Among the many hysterical reactions to the Brexit decision, a particular post on Facebook caught my attention. The author was convinced that the decision to leave was the equivalent of the Visigoths’ sacking of Rome; civilisation itself was apparently in its last days.

It did not seem to occur to him that the decision to leave the EU was the product of a vote in which a majority of his fellow-citizens had simply, as part of their democratic right, acted on a view, or views, on a subject of interest to the whole community, that were just as valid as, but different from, his own. The barbarians whom he castigated were not invaders from elsewhere; they were Britons like him, enjoying the same right as he had to consider the issues and express a view. It is what is called democracy.

The fury and hatred aroused by the discovery that there was actually a majority that disagreed with those who thought that they alone were capable of reaching the right and proper decision – and the vitriol with which those sentiments are expressed – provides us with an insight into the mentality of many of those who simply could not believe that any view other than theirs was possible

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#1581317 27-Jun-2016 17:51

shk292:

Nice quote here from a politician:

Among the many hysterical reactions to the Brexit decision, a particular post on Facebook caught my attention. The author was convinced that the decision to leave was the equivalent of the Visigoths’ sacking of Rome; civilisation itself was apparently in its last days.

It did not seem to occur to him that the decision to leave the EU was the product of a vote in which a majority of his fellow-citizens had simply, as part of their democratic right, acted on a view, or views, on a subject of interest to the whole community, that were just as valid as, but different from, his own. The barbarians whom he castigated were not invaders from elsewhere; they were Britons like him, enjoying the same right as he had to consider the issues and express a view. It is what is called democracy.

The fury and hatred aroused by the discovery that there was actually a majority that disagreed with those who thought that they alone were capable of reaching the right and proper decision – and the vitriol with which those sentiments are expressed – provides us with an insight into the mentality of many of those who simply could not believe that any view other than theirs was possible

sums it up nicely

SJB

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#1581320 27-Jun-2016 17:58

tdgeek:

And for that reason I still feel that it should have been campaigned with lots of real numbers thrown around. Then at least the emotive ones who wanted to leave, might still want to leave and wont vote cos they know its dumb? What we gain, what we lose, all in STG. Immigration in bods and STG. Everyone can understand that. But it seems many took the heart approach. Anger votes.

The problem is that there is no agreement on what the real numbers are especially in future projections.

Have you ever heard a politician quote an amount (dollars, pounds or whatever) that you could take as gospel?

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#1581420 27-Jun-2016 19:39

The win margin seems utterly inadequate.

Especially when you consider that by the time some kind of exit occurs in x years and finishes in y years, demographics alone will swing it the other way.

This result is only marginally better than a coin toss.

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#1581436 27-Jun-2016 19:51

shk292:

Nice quote here from a politician:

Among the many hysterical reactions to the Brexit decision, a particular post on Facebook caught my attention. The author was convinced that the decision to leave was the equivalent of the Visigoths’ sacking of Rome; civilisation itself was apparently in its last days.

It did not seem to occur to him that the decision to leave the EU was the product of a vote in which a majority of his fellow-citizens had simply, as part of their democratic right, acted on a view, or views, on a subject of interest to the whole community, that were just as valid as, but different from, his own. The barbarians whom he castigated were not invaders from elsewhere; they were Britons like him, enjoying the same right as he had to consider the issues and express a view. It is what is called democracy.

The fury and hatred aroused by the discovery that there was actually a majority that disagreed with those who thought that they alone were capable of reaching the right and proper decision – and the vitriol with which those sentiments are expressed – provides us with an insight into the mentality of many of those who simply could not believe that any view other than theirs was possible

"from a politician" - well there's a problem from the start.

A majority of fellow citizens indeed did not vote for Brexit. A small majority of voters did.
Only 26.79% of UK citizens voted for Brexit.

Of those, fury and hatred appears to have motivated many. Of those who didn't vote at all, complacency or apathy is a problem with the young (in NZ too - it's a serious problem). Something needs to be done to re-engage them.

Anybody hailing the result as a triumph for democracy is an abject moron.

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#1581446 27-Jun-2016 20:04

Please, not the old chestnut that if a party/idea doesn't get >50% of the total electorate, it's not a valid vote. That way lies no mandate for anyone, ever.

For those that can rise above name-calling, there is quite an intelligent analysis of what might happen next here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/06/26/defeatist-talk-will-cost-britain-dear/

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#1581451 27-Jun-2016 20:07

Fred99:[snip]
A majority of fellow citizens indeed did not vote for Brexit. A small majority of voters did.
Only 26.79% of UK citizens voted for Brexit.

Of those, fury and hatred appears to have motivated many. Of those who didn't vote at all, complacency or apathy is a problem with the young (in NZ too - it's a serious problem). Something needs to be done to re-engage them.

Anybody hailing the result as a triumph for democracy is an abject moron.

Turnout was 72%, miles better than their general elections. Turnout was exceptionally good by UK standards.

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#1581520 27-Jun-2016 20:52

shk292:
Please, not the old chestnut that if a party/idea doesn't get >50% of the total electorate, it's not a valid vote. That way lies no mandate for anyone, ever.

For those that can rise above name-calling, there is quite an intelligent analysis of what might happen next here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/06/26/defeatist-talk-will-cost-britain-dear/

The article points out that an exit is not really an exit. That is a reminder UKIP will drone on and on and on forever playing the same tune regardless. That can't be good.

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Fred99

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#1581534 27-Jun-2016 21:26

gzt:
Fred99:[snip]

A majority of fellow citizens indeed did not vote for Brexit. A small majority of voters did.
Only 26.79% of UK citizens voted for Brexit.

Of those, fury and hatred appears to have motivated many. Of those who didn't vote at all, complacency or apathy is a problem with the young (in NZ too - it's a serious problem). Something needs to be done to re-engage them.

Anybody hailing the result as a triumph for democracy is an abject moron.

Turnout was 72%, miles better than their general elections. Turnout was exceptionally good by UK standards.

Which is still exceptionally poor.

In any case, if a referendum was to be held to authorise short-drop public hangings by hoisting the condemned to choke to death slowly for their crimes, it would probably win by popular vote.

Fred99

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#1581538 27-Jun-2016 21:30

shk292:

Please, not the old chestnut that if a party/idea doesn't get >50% of the total electorate, it's not a valid vote. That way lies no mandate for anyone, ever.

Perhaps the lesson in this is the folly of referendums in post-factual democracies.

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#1581579 27-Jun-2016 22:23

Surely the time to debate the percentage required to carry the motion was BEFORE you had the referendum, not after.

After is just crying over spilt milk.

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#1581584 27-Jun-2016 22:25

gzt:
Fred99:[snip]

A majority of fellow citizens indeed did not vote for Brexit. A small majority of voters did.
Only 26.79% of UK citizens voted for Brexit.

Of those, fury and hatred appears to have motivated many. Of those who didn't vote at all, complacency or apathy is a problem with the young (in NZ too - it's a serious problem). Something needs to be done to re-engage them.

Anybody hailing the result as a triumph for democracy is an abject moron.

Turnout was 72%, miles better than their general elections. Turnout was exceptionally good by UK standards.

Quite: if you apply this to General Elections, most Brits suffer under governments that only a minority voted for with relative frequency.

It's usually the reverse of this referendum - Scotland and London, for example, imposed Labour on the Shires for a very long time when Bliar (sic) was around.

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