Interesting video about Brexit

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Geektastic

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#197954 19-Jun-2016 23:27

This link will show you a long film about Brexit.

I'm not going to get into the nitty gritty of that, because Mauricio has already stomped wisely on someone for talking nonsense in another thread and I am not breaking the rules (at least not knowingly!) by starting that again.

I did however notice a lot of people wondering why Britain might want to leave the EU. If you are wondering, this video would be educational.

(In fairness the video is designed to promote leaving, so is slanted that way, but it is still both true and worth watching.)

(Mauricio - please feel free to lock this if you think it best: I only wanted to share the video, not start another conversation!)

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#1577247 20-Jun-2016 16:28

I believe the other thread was locked because Godwin's was invoked.

Despite predictions by some that there'd be a swing in these last polls toward "leave", the FT "poll of polls" is showing a tie at 44:44 with 11% undecided.

We'll know in a few days. A small majority either way (which looks possible) is probably much worse for the UK than a clear majority either way.

sir1963

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#1577650 21-Jun-2016 13:28

The reply to that film is this one

Also UK universities will find they are ineligible for UK research grants, student travel, etc etc etc

UK citizens may require a passport to go anywhere in the EU, may require medical/travel insurance, etc etc etc

Trade negotiations will need to be redone, probably from scratch and the outcome will likely be worse as the UK will need the EU more than the EU will need the UK

and worst of the lot, if the UK leaves the EU, they may not be able to get back in when things go pear shaped.

nathan

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#1577654 21-Jun-2016 13:40

Well that is just scaremongering.

I hope the UK leaves the EU so they can renegotiate all those things you say

What is it that that the EU does exactly? 10,000 EU govt employees earn more than David Cameron the UK MP. imagine how many more earn less than him

And what do they all do??

£5B pounds of the EU budget a year is estimated as lost to fraud.

sir1963

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#1577675 21-Jun-2016 14:17

nathan: Well that is just scaremongering.

I hope the UK leaves the EU so they can renegotiate all those things you say

What is it that that the EU does exactly? 10,000 EU govt employees earn more than David Cameron the UK MP. imagine how many more earn less than him

And what do they all do??

£5B pounds of the EU budget a year is estimated as lost to fraud.

Our top government employees earn more than our PM too. There is nothing unusual there.

The EU has over 700 million citizens speaking 24 languages along with each country having its own legal systems.Yet they spend just 6% on administration .

NZ per head of population spends more on diplomacy than the UK http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11970612/Britain-out-spent-on-diplomacy-by-New-Zealand-report-finds.html

The US military has 8.5 Trillion that is unaccounted for.

As for the Fraud

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/explained/myths/myths_en.cfm

The EU budget is riddled with fraud!

The Commission has a zero-tolerance policy on fraud, which affects just 0.2% of the annual spending. The estimated financial impact of fraudulent irregularities fell from €315 million in 2012 to €248 million in 2013.

ANY UK trade with the EU will need to comply with EU laws etc, so the compliance costs for any industry in the UK will not change at best and may increase as they are not part of the EU and may have additional requirements (customs declarations etc).

Also the EU will KNOW the UK needs to EU more than the EU needs to UK, so negotiating strength lies with the EU.

Any UK citizens living/working in the EU may need to go back to the UK and apply for a visa/work permit, with the influx of refugees requiring work UK residents may find this difficult.

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#1577678 21-Jun-2016 14:28

Rikkitic

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#1577695 21-Jun-2016 15:08

I haven't involved myself in this discussion because I do not have strong views either way and I have not studied the issue. Although I am now a Kiwi and no longer have close ties to Europe, I come from there and I lived through all of this while the Community was taking shape and Britain was coming and going while trying to make up its mind. I also lived in England in the 1970s. The impression I always had was that Britain was a half-hearted member of the EU at best. They wanted the trade benefits but none of the costs or obligations or responsibilities. They were always trying to negotiate different kinds of 'special' conditions that exempted them from one thing or another that other members were expected to accept. They did this dance again when the single currency was being debated. Whether it has turned out to be a good thing or not, The British did not want to be part of it at the time. They did not want to be European. They never have. They want to be British, not British as part of the Union, but British as opposed to the Union. They have a very different view of Europe than other Europeans do. Again, I am not saying if this is good or bad, but it definitely colours British attitudes and it always has.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

nathan

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#1577738 21-Jun-2016 16:00

The referendum is non binding after all. So even if the vote is to leave it doesn't mean they will.

If they do leave I'm quite sure France, Germany, Netherlands and Austria will follow closely behind. They'll enjoy their sovereignty back, no interference from the unelected undemocratic officials in Brussels, and a return to the point of the EEC not a political union

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Geektastic

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#1577762 21-Jun-2016 16:30

nathan: The referendum is non binding after all. So even if the vote is to leave it doesn't mean they will.

If they do leave I'm quite sure France, Germany, Netherlands and Austria will follow closely behind. They'll enjoy their sovereignty back, no interference from the unelected undemocratic officials in Brussels, and a return to the point of the EEC not a political union

My view is that it will be a Remain vote by not more than 45/55 ratio.

Whichever way it goes, if the politicos decided not to take any notice, I think there would be blood on the streets.

DravidDavid

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#1577783 21-Jun-2016 16:58

I don't have a huge knowledge on the subject, or an opinion either way. Though, I'd likely vote exit, as the EU are writing up laws to prevent just that. You can always come back. You can't leave if legislation says you can't, even though I find that stupid.

When reading the dailymail.co.uk, it shows you the "top" stories and every second or third article is an alarmist overreaction from some "expert" about how leaving will be the end of world trade as we know it. I'm surprised it's 50/50 at the moment. Honestly with the heavily one sided campaign they are running, I'd expect 60/40 minimum.

SJB

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#1577798 21-Jun-2016 17:26

I don't think most Brits think of themselves as Europeans and Europeans don't think of Brits that way either. Maybe it's the physical separation. The Channel and the North Sea aren't very big but they have a big mental impact.

The only reason Germany and France want Britain in is because the economy is so large. If Britain had an economy the size of say Ireland, Germany and France would be saying good riddance.

DaveB

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#1577903 21-Jun-2016 20:12

Geektastic:

nathan: The referendum is non binding after all. So even if the vote is to leave it doesn't mean they will.

If they do leave I'm quite sure France, Germany, Netherlands and Austria will follow closely behind. They'll enjoy their sovereignty back, no interference from the unelected undemocratic officials in Brussels, and a return to the point of the EEC not a political union

My view is that it will be a Remain vote by not more than 45/55 ratio.

Whichever way it goes, if the politicos decided not to take any notice, I think there would be blood on the streets.

A few weeks ago I would have agreed with you, but now I'm not so sure.

Last week we saw the Leave campaign surge as the politicians and big business really tried the fright game.

Cameron made a complete fool of himself. Corbyn just blubbered on and on about what a wonderful cotton wool world we need to aim for. Osbourne continued with his doom and gloom, immediate job losses and the introduction of his emergency budget.

Then the Brits even had the fun (and unadulterated luxury) of watching Big Business by the name of Sir Philip Green show his utter contempt for British politicians and 11,000 employees as his wife floated around the French Riviera in the super yacht funded by the money fleeced from British Home Stores. yes he loves Europe!

It was a massive swing only to fall back again over the weekend after the tragic killing of Jo Cox.

If they carry on for the next couple of days as they did last week, I'm now picking the following scenario:-

1. A win to the Brexit camp 52 to 48

2. UK politicians spend the next couple of years explaining the reasons why they will not move the UK out of EU

3. The British public learn the hard way that the "new world" democracy that has been creeping in for a couple of generations has no bearing on true democracy.

4. End result? No change and a country more bitterly divided than ever before.

Geektastic

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#1577958 21-Jun-2016 21:23

DaveB:

Geektastic:

nathan: The referendum is non binding after all. So even if the vote is to leave it doesn't mean they will.

If they do leave I'm quite sure France, Germany, Netherlands and Austria will follow closely behind. They'll enjoy their sovereignty back, no interference from the unelected undemocratic officials in Brussels, and a return to the point of the EEC not a political union

My view is that it will be a Remain vote by not more than 45/55 ratio.

Whichever way it goes, if the politicos decided not to take any notice, I think there would be blood on the streets.

A few weeks ago I would have agreed with you, but now I'm not so sure.

Last week we saw the Leave campaign surge as the politicians and big business really tried the fright game.

Cameron made a complete fool of himself. Corbyn just blubbered on and on about what a wonderful cotton wool world we need to aim for. Osbourne continued with his doom and gloom, immediate job losses and the introduction of his emergency budget.

Then the Brits even had the fun (and unadulterated luxury) of watching Big Business by the name of Sir Philip Green show his utter contempt for British politicians and 11,000 employees as his wife floated around the French Riviera in the super yacht funded by the money fleeced from British Home Stores. yes he loves Europe!

It was a massive swing only to fall back again over the weekend after the tragic killing of Jo Cox.

If they carry on for the next couple of days as they did last week, I'm now picking the following scenario:-

1. A win to the Brexit camp 52 to 48

2. UK politicians spend the next couple of years explaining the reasons why they will not move the UK out of EU

3. The British public learn the hard way that the "new world" democracy that has been creeping in for a couple of generations has no bearing on true democracy.

4. End result? No change and a country more bitterly divided than ever before.

That would indeed be an unpleasant outcome. We may find out just why politicians have been so keen over the past 40 or so years to disarm the populous if that happens...

The MP thing confused me. I realise I tend to be unmoved by such things but the death of a minor MP of a constituency that 95% of Britain couldn't find on a map being the pivot for the greatest decision in several generations is frankly disproportionate.

SJB

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#1578147 22-Jun-2016 10:35

IMO if brexit wins then that's the end of the argument for the foreseeable future. There will be nobody pushing to rejoin and the EU might make it difficult anyway.

However if remain wins that's not the end of the story. For a start there is UKIP championing the cause. Regardless of what you think of their leader they are a political force and with the 2 major parties disliked by so many people and the Lib Dems wallowing they could hold the balance of power after the next general election.

Then it's referendum time again.

After all it's only playing the EU at their own game of asking the question until they get the answer they want.

DaveB

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#1578200 22-Jun-2016 11:05

At least Frankie Boyle still has a sense of humour -

It's raining Thursday. Brexit. Economic crash. Food riots. Slide into fascism. At war with China. Trenches all across Mongolia.

Bloody rain.

22/6/2016

MikeB4

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#1578220 22-Jun-2016 11:44

If the result of the referendum was that the majority were in favour of a withdrawal from Europe the Government could in view of some of the doubts being expressed, may propose that after careful consideration, the considered view of the Government was that, while they considered that the proposal met with broad approval in principle, that some of the principles were sufficiently fundamental in principle, and some of the considerations so complex and finely balanced in practice that in principle it was proposed that the sensible and prudent practice would be to submit the proposal for more detailed consideration, laying stress on the essential continuity of the new proposal with existing principles, the principle of the principal arguments which the proposal proposes and propounds for their approval. In principle to give Brexit a thorough and rigorous examination of all the proposals, allied to a detailed feasibility study and budget analysis before producing a consultative document for consideration by all interested bodies and seeking comments and recommendations to be included in a brief for a series of working parties who will produce individual studies which will provide the background for a more wide-ranging document considering whether or not the proposal should be taken forward to the next stage.

In short, they will block it.

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