White Island eruption

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MikeB4
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#2372340 11-Dec-2019 12:06

geoffwnz:

Priority order for risk assessment is:

Self
Team
Equipment
Bystanders
Environment
Casualties
It's harsh but you can't help others if you become compromised yourself.
Casualties are already compromised and yes, it sucks to walk (run if necessary) away from someone begging for help but unless you want to add yourself to the victims list, that's unfortunately what has to be done.

errr

Self, team, casualties, bystanders, equipment, environment.

Edit; It was pointed out to me that Geoff was correct. I dug out my old CD stuff and checked. I apologise to Geoff. I will now go and sit in the corner.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

Bung

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#2372354 11-Dec-2019 12:47

MikeB4:
Also Northland, Taranaki, Wellington, Bank Peninsular, Tarawera. Any Volcano even those long time sleeping have the potential to erupt.

Wellington?? For all its faults Wellington isn't listed as volcanic AFAIK Do you have a reference?

GV27

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#2372355 11-Dec-2019 12:47

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/118103101/whakaariwhite-island-helicopter-pilot-said-conditions-perfect-to-recover-bodies

This is irresponsible reporting.

But red tape and further volcanic tremors have put a halt to that, frustrating local experts, several with decades of intimate knowledge of the volcano that is believed to have claimed 14 lives.

The. Volcanologists. Are. The. Experts.

GV27

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#2372358 11-Dec-2019 12:50

Banks Peninsula is extinct and has been for millions of years.

MikeB4

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#2372369 11-Dec-2019 13:12

GV27:

Banks Peninsula is extinct and has been for millions of years.

Volcanoes are never really extinct and they sometimes surprise eg Versuvius . I grant you knowledge was not that great back then but Island of Montserrat has what was thought to be an extinct volcano but it erupted in 1995 and a Volcano in Alaska that erupted in 2006 the first time since before 8000BCE

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

mrdrifter

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#2372379 11-Dec-2019 13:16

MikeB4:

geoffwnz:

Priority order for risk assessment is:

Self
Team
Equipment
Bystanders
Environment
Casualties
It's harsh but you can't help others if you become compromised yourself.
Casualties are already compromised and yes, it sucks to walk (run if necessary) away from someone begging for help but unless you want to add yourself to the victims list, that's unfortunately what has to be done.

errr

Self, team, casualties, bystanders, equipment, environment.

Geoff was correct with his order of priority, it's drilled into the rescue teams right from early training. The highly trained rescue personnel are required to override the emotional response and triage the situations quickly even though on the surface and to outsiders it appears quite harsh.

At a really high level (having been through a range of rescue training)

1. If you put yourself in more danger or end up hurt, you then create more work for the wider team and potentially endanger other rescuers.

2. Without the wider team any rescue situation becomes far more difficult and if a team member is injured, this dilutes the focus and potentially adds to the casualties.

3. Quality Rescue gear while less important that a persons life, is also used to save those lives, if the gear is damaged or destroyed, you may be further endangering everyone.

4. Bystanders - are generally best kept clear of an area (during an emergency, bystanders will actually perform most of the immediate work, assisting/helping/saving other people around them, especially in the immediate aftermath). Once a rescue team is mobilised, the immediate danger has normally passed and a technical rescue or recovery is required, often with the environmental factors or the use of heavy equipment, white or deep water or high angle rope access, depending on the type of emergency. Each of these types of rescues are a different specialisation and require training to perform safely.

5. Environment - is simply, don't make things worse, if you are likely to dislodge something, or put one of the above in danger, then step back a bit and plan. Mine Re-entry is a good example in NZ, or the Thai caves and flooding, the rescue or recovery of a group may suddenly becomes exponentially harder if your trained people are now trapped with the people they were trying to reach.

6. Casualties - at the end of the day we all want them rescued or recovered, but unfortunately recovery does require the risks to be weighed up against the above and an informed decision to be made.

It's so hard to judge these things from the outside and we have to rely on the trained people on the ground to make the right decisions based on their combined experience and information they have available. Always keep in mind that the people on these rescue operations do their jobs for exactly this reason - they do want to bring people home and ensure in the situations where there are casualties, that families can get closure. It's not a fun job.

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MikeB4

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#2372427 11-Dec-2019 13:28

Bung:
MikeB4:

Also Northland, Taranaki, Wellington, Bank Peninsular, Tarawera. Any Volcano even those long time sleeping have the potential to erupt.

Wellington?? For all its faults Wellington isn't listed as volcanic AFAIK Do you have a reference?

Like most of NZ Wellington has a volcanic past. Spend some time looking around and you see ancient volcanoes around the Porirua coast and Wellington Harbour. For instance Mount Victoria, Karori Basin. The Harbour itself has the evidence of an ancient Caldera. The Circum- Pacific Belt (The fiery Rim) is capable of bringing to life any Volcano and creating new volanoes. Nowhere in NZ can be considered safe from volcanic activity.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

MikeB4

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#2372443 11-Dec-2019 13:49

mrdrifter:

MikeB4:

geoffwnz:

Priority order for risk assessment is:

Self
Team
Equipment
Bystanders
Environment
Casualties
It's harsh but you can't help others if you become compromised yourself.
Casualties are already compromised and yes, it sucks to walk (run if necessary) away from someone begging for help but unless you want to add yourself to the victims list, that's unfortunately what has to be done.

errr

Self, team, casualties, bystanders, equipment, environment.

Geoff was correct with his order of priority, it's drilled into the rescue teams right from early training. The highly trained rescue personnel are required to override the emotional response and triage the situations quickly even though on the surface and to outsiders it appears quite harsh.

At a really high level (having been through a range of rescue training)

1. If you put yourself in more danger or end up hurt, you then create more work for the wider team and potentially endanger other rescuers.

2. Without the wider team any rescue situation becomes far more difficult and if a team member is injured, this dilutes the focus and potentially adds to the casualties.

3. Quality Rescue gear while less important that a persons life, is also used to save those lives, if the gear is damaged or destroyed, you may be further endangering everyone.

4. Bystanders - are generally best kept clear of an area (during an emergency, bystanders will actually perform most of the immediate work, assisting/helping/saving other people around them, especially in the immediate aftermath). Once a rescue team is mobilised, the immediate danger has normally passed and a technical rescue or recovery is required, often with the environmental factors or the use of heavy equipment, white or deep water or high angle rope access, depending on the type of emergency. Each of these types of rescues are a different specialisation and require training to perform safely.

5. Environment - is simply, don't make things worse, if you are likely to dislodge something, or put one of the above in danger, then step back a bit and plan. Mine Re-entry is a good example in NZ, or the Thai caves and flooding, the rescue or recovery of a group may suddenly becomes exponentially harder if your trained people are now trapped with the people they were trying to reach.

6. Casualties - at the end of the day we all want them rescued or recovered, but unfortunately recovery does require the risks to be weighed up against the above and an informed decision to be made.

It's so hard to judge these things from the outside and we have to rely on the trained people on the ground to make the right decisions based on their combined experience and information they have available. Always keep in mind that the people on these rescue operations do their jobs for exactly this reason - they do want to bring people home and ensure in the situations where there are casualties, that families can get closure. It's not a fun job.

You are correct. I dug out my old CD stuff and I was wrong with my order. I will now write it out 100 times.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

GV27

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#2372445 11-Dec-2019 13:51

MikeB4:

Like most of NZ Wellington has a volcanic past. Spend some time looking around and you see ancient volcanoes around the Porirua coast and Wellington Harbour. For instance Mount Victoria, Karori Basin. The Harbour itself has the evidence of an ancient Caldera. The Circum- Pacific Belt (The fiery Rim) is capable of bringing to life any Volcano and creating new volanoes. Nowhere in NZ can be considered safe from volcanic activity.

The idea of volcanoes and volcanic fields is perfectly scientifically sound. Nothing is going to be erupting without a hot spot or something under it feeding it. Coromandel won't be going up any time soon on account of it now being the source of the Kermadecs and Taupo Volcanic Zone activity instead.

MikeB4

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#2372465 11-Dec-2019 14:00

GV27:

MikeB4:

Like most of NZ Wellington has a volcanic past. Spend some time looking around and you see ancient volcanoes around the Porirua coast and Wellington Harbour. For instance Mount Victoria, Karori Basin. The Harbour itself has the evidence of an ancient Caldera. The Circum- Pacific Belt (The fiery Rim) is capable of bringing to life any Volcano and creating new volanoes. Nowhere in NZ can be considered safe from volcanic activity.

The idea of volcanoes and volcanic fields is perfectly scientifically sound. Nothing is going to be erupting without a hot spot or something under it feeding it. Coromandel won't be going up any time soon on account of it now being the source of the Kermadecs and Taupo Volcanic Zone activity instead.

I did not say that volcanoes and volcanic fields were not scientifically sound. However Aotearoa as a whole could be regarded as volcanic field. The Tectonic forces beneath us can change things at anytime.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

sittingduckz

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#2372467 11-Dec-2019 14:05

I'm in Auckland surrounded by old vocanoes, these are not the ones i'm concerned about... it's the one that doesn't exist yet that worries me (Currently sitting at 0.000001% worry).

I'm not a complete idiot, I still have some parts missing.

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frankv

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#2372575 11-Dec-2019 16:06

sittingduckz:

I'm in Auckland surrounded by old vocanoes, these are not the ones i'm concerned about... it's the one that doesn't exist yet that worries me (Currently sitting at 0.000001% worry).

Actually, they're not that old. Rangitoto is only 600 years old.

GV27

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#2372588 11-Dec-2019 16:26

frankv:

sittingduckz:

I'm in Auckland surrounded by old vocanoes, these are not the ones i'm concerned about... it's the one that doesn't exist yet that worries me (Currently sitting at 0.000001% worry).

Actually, they're not that old. Rangitoto is only 600 years old.

Rangitoto is the product of repeated volcanic activity over a relatively long period of time. So yes the most recent eruption that gave us the current shape was 600 years ago, but the interesting thing is it kept at it long enough to build up a pretty big surface area. It's also an escalation and change in the AVF's behaviour - bigger, and not a one-off like most of the other volcanoes we know about in Auckland. This just adds to the mystery of Auckland's next eruption: we don't know how long it will run for, or how big it will get, or what it will look like.

MikeB4

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#2372595 11-Dec-2019 16:32

GV27:

frankv:

sittingduckz:

I'm in Auckland surrounded by old vocanoes, these are not the ones i'm concerned about... it's the one that doesn't exist yet that worries me (Currently sitting at 0.000001% worry).

Actually, they're not that old. Rangitoto is only 600 years old.

Rangitoto is the product of repeated volcanic activity over a relatively long period of time. So yes the most recent eruption that gave us the current shape was 600 years ago, but the interesting thing is it kept at it long enough to build up a pretty big surface area. It's also an escalation and change in the AVF's behaviour - bigger, and not a one-off like most of the other volcanoes we know about in Auckland. This just adds to the mystery of Auckland's next eruption: we don't know how long it will run for, or how big it will get, or what it will look like.

I have a reasonable idea what the next Auckland eruption will look like not matter what cone starts it, to put it mildly, bloody messy and deadly. However that is only from a result perspective. The rest is a lottery.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

DarthKermit

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#2372603 11-Dec-2019 16:37

Just looking at the Red Cross unofficial missing/alive list. They've cleaned it up a bit so it's not showing very many names as both missing and alive. It still has a number of duplicate missing names. By my count there are 38 missing on their list.

If someone is listed as both missing and alive, I've not counted them as missing.

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