Increase in global temperatures due to reduced emissions and industrial production. (Paul Beckwith)

Forums › Off topic › Increase in global temperatures due to reduced emissions and industrial production. (Paul Beckwith)

amiga500

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#268621 29-Mar-2020 09:52

This is what respected climate system scientist Paul Beckwith has to say about the subject:

'Global Dimming from industrial and transportation aerosols is likely between 0.25C and 1.1C with a best estimate of 0.5C. As global industry/transportation shutters due to our coronavirus actions, the sky clears due to reduced pollution, unmasking global dimming. My educated best guess on the size of the direct effect warming pulse is 0.25C globally if half of industry shuts down, realized as a 0.5C warning over land and 0.125C warming over the oceans. Maybe double these numbers with indirect effects from cloud changes. Also, daily temperature range will increase, specifically due to shutdown of the airline industry.'

On his YouTube channel he has a 3 part video on the topic but what I have posted above is the TLDR version! Please note it is not only scientists such as Guy McPherson who mention the global dimming effect, it is a fairly mainstream view in the climate scientist community.

So if Paul Beckwith is correct there goes any chance of staying below 2 degrees c of global warming, which of course is already an IPCC farce. Just look up 'Mauna Loa daily CO2' results for the last few days...

BlinkyBill

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#2449250 29-Mar-2020 10:10

Respected by who? Not by real, actual climate scientists, that’s for certain.

Certainly won more “crackpot of the week/month/year” awards than just about anyone.

bmt

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#2449255 29-Mar-2020 10:14

My eyes started glazing over halfway through the post. What exactly are you saying? You're just posting a [small] wall of text with no citations or references.

bmt

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#2449258 29-Mar-2020 10:16

Paul Beckwith doesn't appear to be very well respected at all. Few reputable citations on Google, first appearance in Google News is article #4 quoting "PR Watch" in an "article" from the 19th of December.

Lol.

amiga500

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#2449270 29-Mar-2020 10:30

bmt:

My eyes started glazing over halfway through the post. What exactly are you saying? You're just posting a [small] wall of text with no citations or references.

This is the exact text that appears at the top of his post. Please note that I am only posting the opinion of one scientist. However, the daily readings of CO2 at Mauna Loa is scientific information & not opinion.

BlinkyBill

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#2449291 29-Mar-2020 11:07

The problem with Beckworth is the extreme alarmist tone. He has little to no expertise in the field, and utilises the same mis/dis-informational techniques used by dimwits like the flat-earther community. Beckworth’s predictions’ are outrageously inaccurate - the most famous one being ‘no arctic sea-ice by 2013’.

He is not stupid, and so his data and conclusions have a veneer of plausibility.

In my opinion, Beckworth is doing more damage to the climate than actual climate change deniers.

tdgeek

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#2449292 29-Mar-2020 11:07

Years ago when I watched many global warming docos and denier docos, there was mention of global cooling. Greenhouse gases are like a blanket, holding the heat in. Smoke particles are large and hold larger a droplet of water, they cool by blocking the solar rays. Makes sense

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Geektastic

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#2449294 29-Mar-2020 11:11

More interested in whether we will be here in 6 months just now, never mind whether global warming gets better, worse or exists.

Azzura

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#2449299 29-Mar-2020 11:21

From over on reddit.... I remember reading about this and was wondering if it could be true. With less air travel happening...now I wonder even more if it true.

"A paper came out on the negative forcing of aerosols. If you are unfamiliar, this is what gets called "global dimming": our industrial activities release compounds like SO2 that act as a cooling force for the earth.

This new paper suggests that the amount of warming masked by aerosols is around 1 degree celsius. That would mean we've already warmed the earth 2.2C since pre-industrial. As we begin to cut our emissions (especially from coal), we will experience rapid warming as aerosols disappear from the atmosphere and along with it the cooling effect."

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019MS001628

SaltyNZ

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#2449856 30-Mar-2020 08:34

IIRC global dimming is a real thing, that does factor into the climate simulations - but as with anything else we do, to have an impact there would need to be a large and long lasting change. I can't see this temporary partial shut down making enough of a difference to long term pollution to be much more than a statistical blip either way. Not to mention the fact that no lessons will be learned and factories will go into overtime to make up for lost production, as soon as they can.

iPad Pro 11" + iPhone 15 Pro Max + 2degrees 4tw!

These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

amiga500

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#2450229 30-Mar-2020 18:35

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CXRaTnKDXA

The Climate Change Debate Is Long Over And There Is Nothing We Can Do

(The Newsroom s03e03 The EPA)

........................................................................................................

While it is a clip from a 2014 TV show the main points made are scarily accurate. 'Wildfires way too many to control'..

Definitely worth a watch if you haven't see it.